Deficit Attention Disorder
We're still waiting for that Great Golden Recovery in the Sky that the Republicans have promised ever since they passed their first tax cut in 2001. Taxes were cut but the economy kept tanking, so they decided to cut taxes again: They're thinking, "Hey, if it didn't work once, maybe it will work the second time around. And if it doesn't, well, in the meantime at least our campaign contributors have a lot more money in their pockets to give us!"
So the tea leaves keep circling in the bottom of the glass, and the prognosticators keep seeing those signs of a turnaround, and in the meantime, George Bush has earned the distinction of having the worst record on jobs of any president since Herbert Hoover. That should give the Democrats some sort of ammunition, if they can un-dampen their powder.
For a look at how the Republicans plan to position the president's defense, consider this paragraph from today's Wall Street Journal (the piece is by Greg Hitt):
| | Even if the administration's expectations don't hold, the prresident's political allies suggest that voters -- mindful of the challenges he has faced while in office -- will give him credit for trying to fix the economy. "He might have an uncertain economy, but nobody's going to be able to legitimately lower the boom on him for lack of attention on the issue," said Rich Bond, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee. |
The context here seems to be political analysts' view that Bush the elder lost the 1992 election because voters felt that he'd "lost touch" with their economic troubles and hadn't "paid attention" to their hardships. That may be. But this "pay attention" theory really underestimates the average voter's expectations.
"Paying attention" to a recession and unemployment doesn't get you many points if you're president of the United States. It sort of comes with the job, like the Oval Office. It's a prerequisite, not extra credit. The credit comes not with giving "attention" to the economy but with making good choices that help the economy recover and people find jobs. Bush supporters like to say that he inherited a downturn -- during the 2000 election cycle they took great pains to say that the recession had already begun during Clinton's term -- and they're right. But if we consider this downturn to have begun in 2000 that means the Bush folks have had nearly three years to turn things around, and they haven't.
If things do improve between now and Election Day, Bush may be able to rest easier, but if they don't, or don't much, I don't think the public will give him a B for trying. I think they will be mad, and rightly so. "Paying attention" doesn't help if the things you do after you've paid attention make matters worse, not better.
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