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Tuesday, April 27, 2004 |
Useit.Com: B2B: Help Your Fans Convince Their Bosses.
Advocacy kits are rare on current B2B sites, but they're a great way to leverage the Internet's one-to-one ability to reach directly inside a customer company and connect with people who are eager to help you close the deal.
[Tomalak's Realm]
7:15:28 AM
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Thoughtful post over at TAR on the problem of Induction on a Single Case.
One hears it said from time to time that it's irrational to perform inductive inferences based on a single data point. Now this is sometimes irrational. For example, from the fact that Al Gore got the most votes in the last Presidential Election it would be foolish to infer that he'll get the most votes in the next Presidential Election. But it isn't always irrational. And this matters to some philosophical debates, and perhaps to some practical debates too.
Here's my proof that it isn't always irrational. Imagine on Thursday night I go and see a new movie that you're going to go see Friday night. Friday lunchtime I tell you how the movie ended. How should you react? Most people will complain that I've spoiled the movie because you now know how it will end. But if induction on a single case is always bad, this is impossible. All you have is testimonial evidence of how the movie ended on a single occasion, namely Thursday night. You need to make an inferential leap to make a conclusion about how it will end Friday night. (It certainly isn't a deductive inference because some movies have multiple endings.) That inferential leap will be induction on a single case, and will be perfectly reasonable.
. . .
[Thoughts Arguments and Rants]
There's more discussion, too, which you should read if you're interested in this sort of thing. That's a really great example. I find myself inclined to offer (what I think is) a different account of why it's reasonable, though: it operates against the background of a reasonably well understood network of apparently deterministic causal processes. Hume's Problem aside, for the moment, with overwhelming frequency, future endings of particular works resemble past endings of them (so overwhelming that we're likely to hear about it for works that depart from the typical in that respect). We think we have a pretty good idea why that's so, having to do with our understanding of how movies, say, are made and exhibited. Our single-case induction is made against that background, and may really be at least as much a judgment about the credibility of our informant as about the world otherwise.
Good problem to be taking up, though. I'll think on this some more.
7:13:03 AM
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The science of the retail sale. Big-name retailers and new start-up companies are turning to a new type of software to manage markdowns and compete with discount giants such as Wal-Mart Stores. [CNET News.com]
6:59:20 AM
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