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Thursday, June 08, 2006 |
Congratulations, Mark, on a big Game 1 win. Three to go!
(And thanks for blogging before and around the game. It made me feel more connected to the whole affair. Glad you did it.)
11:22:40 PM
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In short, the qualities that make foxes more accurate also make them
less popular.
How Accurate Are Your Pet Pundits? By Philip E. Tetlock.
Every day, experts bombard us with their views on topics as
varied as Iraqi insurgents, Bolivian coca growers, European central
bankers, and North Korea’s Politburo. But how much credibility should
we attach to the opinions of experts? . . . .
. . .
Until recently, no one knew who is right, because no one was keeping
score. But the results of a 20-year research project now suggest that
the skeptics are closer to the truth.
. . .
Here, then, is a modest proposal that applies to all democracies: the
marketplace of ideas works better if it is easier for citizens to see
the trade-offs between accuracy and entertainment, or between accuracy
and party loyalty. Wouldn’t they be more likely to read pundits with
better track records? If so, pundits might adapt to accountability by
showing more humility, and political debate might begin to sound less
shrill.
Granted, it is not easy to create methods of keeping score that are
credible across the spectrum of reasonable opinion. But in a world
where, as Yeats said, “and the best lack all conviction, while the
worst are full of passionate intensity,” it is worth
trying.
Expert Political Judgment: How good is it? How can we know?
9:30:15 AM
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Fighting Cybercrime in Nigeria, By Oluwaseun Ayantokun, in Lagos.
The convenience associated with IT and the Internet is now
being
exploited to serve criminal purposes. Cybercrime covers internet fraud
not just online 419 - the use of computers and or the internet to
commit crime. Computer-assisted crime include e-mail scams, hacking,
distribution of hostile software (viruses and worms), denial of
service attacks, theft of data, extortion, fraud and impersonation.
. . .
For now,there is an IT security divide - a serious shortage of skills
to deal with the threats associated with IT. Shouting and moaning
about cybercrime isn't enough. All the talk is meaningless unless the
gap is closed. Security agencies need to be equipped with the skills,
the know-how and the insight necessary to fight cybercrime
effectively.While resources are needed to fight the menace, it is
imperative to avoid the misdirected approach of'throwing money' at the
problem. The approach must be based on policies and strategies. Such
policies must be based on knowledge. Knowledge not just for the
operatives, but also for those that will commit resources. For
example, do the decision makers have any REAL, PRACTICAL appreciation
of technology, not to talk of cybercrime? What is their stake on the
basics of information security in today's high-tech, business
environment? The cybercriminals seem to have the technology advantage.
Essentially, cybercrime is information and intelligence- based
activity. You cannot fight cybercrime with ignorance, strong
directives or boastful talk, Mr Jide Awe, an ICT expert, said in a
conference paper presented in 2004.
9:30:10 AM
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