Tuesday, March 04, 2003

Oh God...and I thought invading Iraq was fucking insane. But no, no, no...according to Nicholas Kristof, the Bushies are "reluctantly" pushing the idea of a military strike against North Korea this summer if diplomacy fails. Which it will, since we're, y'know, NOT TRYING. This can NOT be serious. I mean, Iraq is winnable, I guess. Iraq's military can be beaten, Iraq's air forces are insignificant, Iraq has no capacity to do any real damage to any of its neighbors, etc...North Korea, on the other hand...let's see, they have a million soldiers on the border with South Korea. A well-trained, well-armed army. They've got enough artillery within range of Seoul to flatten the city in next to no time. They've got missles that EASILY have the range to strike Tokyo and the rest of Japan (and myabe the ability to hit California, though that's a lot more questionable). Oh, and they've got chemical and biological weapons, almost certainly, and very likely have nuclear weapons. Yeah, attacking them makes PERFECT sense. Let's put aside the moral aspects. Yes, we can win a war with North Korea. In a straight-up, never-mind-the-casualties war, we can win a war against just about anybody. But a war with North Korea would have plenty of casualties: thousands of Americans dead, for certain, probably tens of thousands. Not to mention the cost of military equipment lost, very, very expensive military equipment - planes, tanks, and probably even naval vessels - remember, that missle the North Koreans just tested last week was an anti-ship missle. That's a LOT of money. Which gets me to the economic ramifications. South Korea is the 10th largest economy in the world. Seoul is the largest city in South Korea. In the event of all-out war with North Korea, Seoul will transform into a smoking wasteland within a day or so. Think about that: the capital of the 10th largest economy in the world destroyed. Think the world economy would react well to that? You've got to assume that South Korea would be an economic non-factor for years recovering. Oh, and Japan - sure, it wouldn't get the full-on annhilation, but we're still talking about some major damage to, if I remember correctly, the SECOND largest economy in the world. Can you say "massive world-wide depression the likes of which none of us have ever seen"? I certainly can - and if we go to war with North Korea, you better be prepared for just that. Oh, and the humanity: I can't see how this possibly could end without hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of dead. Yeah, MILLIONS. Kim Jong Il is prepared to go to war with the US. He honestly believes he can win, and believes that he will eventually be attacked by the US anyway, so why not get it going now? That's why we're seeing the deliberate provocations - restarting the nuke program, testing missles, the spy plane interception...he's gambling that we'll back down and give him what he wants: economic aid and a formal non-aggression pact. And if not? Well, he believes he can win, as I said. You've got to think the Bushies aren't so stupid as to not know this. But it seems they are...not a crisis? If this isn't a crisis but Iraq IS (ok, Iraq is a crisis...because we sent 250,000 troops there and said we were going to invade)... This just can't be real, can it? One stupid decision and the whole world gets fucked. I thought we put this behind us when the Cold War ended. Why are the Bushies trying so hard to start it again?

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