Chaords Everywhere I Look
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Sunday, August 18, 2002
 

I think double-blind placebo studies as proof of the efficacy of health treatment are drastically overrated.

First, there are so many factors leading to a change in health. What did you eat? Eat at home or at a restaurant? How much exercise did you do? What stresses are in your life? I find it hard to believe that someone who had cancer and was a participant in a study would have a remission no matter what drug they took or treatment was applied, if they were going through a bitter divorce at the time or lost a child. The immune system is much more closely linked to the emotions than any chemical makeup of the blood or brain. What thoughts did you have? Who did you associate with, positive people or negative? Did you take a vacation? What was the weather while you were participating in the study? What music did you listen to? Classical music, especially Mozart, has a good effect on people's health (proven in a double-blind placebo study, of course). How was work? Did you get assigned a big project that had an impossible deadline?

Of course, the people conducting the studies say "oh, we compensated for that." But I don't believe you can. I took permutations and combinations in school. Six factors of ten possibilities each yields a million possible outcomes for each person. And there must be more like a million factors with a million possibilities each. You got that covered? Okay, I believe you.

So, how can we measure success? I don't think we can. Physicists are up-in-arms now that they realize that with complexity science, we can't predict things in physics, we can only adapt to what emerges. Bugger. Same is true for health studies, but the establishment hasn't come to that terrible realization yet.

 


6:32:19 PM    comment []



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