Osten is apparently a stock broker, and seems to speak intelligently, so I have been persuading myself all season that Mark Burnett finally let go of one of his stereotypes and quit casting big, dumb angry black men--just keeping the big part.

Will he's not angry, but he sure continues acting stupid. His Action Plan on the incredible sinking shelter? Wait until they're completely screwed, with nowhere to sleep, then start panicking.

I could not believe I heard the words coming out of his mouth. Bad enough they waited this long. They needed Rupert to inform them? Just the sight of them trying to stem the mighty seas with a handful of logs and hand-dug trench . . .

As for Rupert . . .

The guy just can't stop himself. I guess he found his calling, working with troubled youth. So he finds himself on a little island with five very troubled youth, his instincts take over.

You would think he would suffer with them a few days and report back, or maybe catch just enough fish for them himself, without anyone seeing how. I can't believe he guided them to move the shelter, took Pretty Ryan out on a fishing lesson . . .

All that could do wonders in getting him votes in a final showdown, but he needs to get there first. Aren't the Drakes going to feel betrayed?

The only other use I can see is if there is some sort of rupture and at some point his alliance is short a vote or two, and they desperately need to coax one of the Morgans to vote for them. He'll have earned a lot of trust. But that's an unlikely scenario, and he's taking a huge chance to set it up.

But it does make me smile to watch him throw reason to the wind and follow his instincts. Happens time and again on this show: people know what to do, but they can't stop themselves.

And it was really sweet watching him out there with his student, Pretty Ryan. They're such an earnest pair. But I'm less and less impressed by what Pretty Ryan has going on directly behind that pretty face.

And Rupert's assessment of the Morgan's problem was hysterical.  Has there ever been such a Survivor fuckup team?

And though he didn't mention Andrew by name (as far as I have gotten), everything he said spells leadership disaster. Andrew talks a good game, but apparently he inspires no one to follow.

(More soon. Got a late start.)

Survivor Pearl Islands page here.

Head here all week for Survivor Episode 5 Comments

OK, start jabbering away. Survivor starts in under five hours where I live, four for many of you.

I'll be here (to this post) to make my predictions before it starts. Feel free to jump in without me.

(And a few people already have, earlier in the week.)

Update:

Seven minutes till starting time, and . . .

 MY PREDICTIONS ARE:

Morgan will return to losing, and it looks like Darrah. I wouldn't be sure about it, though. They could finally have enough of Osten, and/or see him as a threat.

But if immunity winners get to keep picking a castaway for a day to switch (a big if), the Drakes may well take Osten, sparing him anyway.

All the more likely Darrah. Doubt they'll take her.

If Drakes lose, probably Michelle. She was the only person allied to Burton (at least when it came time to vote). Shawn may or may not be a late arrival, but he's strong, and if they have lost immunity, that means they lost two in a row, and might be getting a little nervous about having thrown off one of their biggest guns. They won't throw off two in a row. There's plenty of time to get rid of him, if they want to.

The AP headline looks ominous:

Anglican leaders warn against gay bishop

But headline writers notoriously screw up heads to complex stories, and that may well be the case here.

The lead reads just as bad, but the following paragraph seems to soften it:

Oct. 16, 2003  |  LONDON (AP) -- Anglican leaders said Thursday their global communion will be "put in jeopardy" if U.S. Episcopalians proceed with the consecration of their first openly gay bishop.

In a unanimous statement at the end of a two-day crisis meeting on their deep divisions over homosexuality, leaders of 37 national churches called on members not to react precipitously. But they appeared to concede that some parts of the church would cut off communion with the New Hampshire diocese or the whole Episcopal church.

They also called on Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams to establish a commission to study the divisions and report within a year.

Ahhhhhh. I love those Salon headline writers. The "Competing for our scorn . . ." was theirs.

Another delicious "I Like to Watch" TV column from Heather Havrilesky.

Here's the intro:

On "Survivor" this week, the Morgan team continued to soil itself and cry piteously for help. During a reward challenge, Osten, who has a strange way of forgetting that he's built like a brick shithouse, panicked while swimming and became convinced that he was drowning. Luckily for Osten, host/den mother Jeff Probst stayed cool as a cucumber, sending two of the strongest swimmers out to lead him from perceived peril to perceived safety. Despite Probsty's cheering them on, the Morgan team lost and sulked back to their crappy camp for another night of nibbling on cold rice and itching infected bug bites.

Love her writing.

And she skewer Jon soon enough. (She always knows just the right people to hate.)

She's got a great blog, too, by the way. Tell her I said hi.