Three hours after the hostage standoff at Platte Canyon High School ended, that seems to be the vexing question: Why did the cops move in?

I'm listening to talk radio here in Denver, and there is a lot of speculation about what was going on in that classroom to cause the cops to charge in. Some high-profile hosts and some of there guests are suggesting that the SWAT maneuver was a risky move, meaning that there was probably more happening than we now know about. I'm not going to repeat the rumors being bandied about, but there are plenty.

Yow. Those are some terrible questions to contemplate, and they are definitely burning for me tonight: What was happening in that classroom, and what calculation was made? Of the two hostages at the time, we now know that one survived without injury, one died. That's a terrible price, but it might have been twice as bad.

At this point, we don't know, but we are wondering.

As for other risk factors . . . I wonder. If you've read much about hostage negotiation, you'll know that this gunman was exhibiting very high risk factors already. I've spent a lot of time researching these situations for my Columbine book. I've also spent a great deal of time with retired FBI Agent Dwayne Fuselier, who led the Columbine investigation for the bureau. He is also one of the country's leading experts on hostage negotiation. 

Before he came to Colorado, he worked in the FBI's special hostage unit near Washington. His team studied a large number of critical incidents from around the country and drew several conclusions. His work is widely cited in scholarly work in the field, as well as the FBI's field manuals. You can see a really great document from the FBI here (Fuselier is cited, but not the author):

It's called 'Negotiation Concepts for Commanders,' and it was published in the 'FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin,' in January 1999 (three months before Columbine.) It's available to anyone online as a PDF. It runs just nine pages, and it's written in a style that's easy for a layman to understand.

The crucial first question a negotiator faces, it stresses, is answering a deceptively simple question: Is this a hostage situation or non-hostage situation? That may sound too obvious to even mention, but it's not always as obvious as it may sound, and the consequences are crucial. All the suggested actions branch off from the answer to that question.

Today's situation sounds like an obvious hostage situation, but it actually has some of the trademarks of non-hostage. Consider these passage from the piece, starting on p. 7 (the second page of the piece--it begins on p. 6 of the journal. Also note that I use ellipses in order to give you a quick taste. I'm not editing to suit a particular line of thinking, just for brevity. I urge you to follow the link yourself):

'During hostage situations, subjects hold another person or persons for the purpose of forcing the fulfillment of substantive demands upon a third party, usually law enforcement. . . . Hostage-takers demonstrate goal-oriented and purposeful behavior. . . . The primary goal is not to harm the hostages. In fact, hostage takers realize that only through keeping the hostages alive can they hope to achieve their goals.

In nonhostage incidents, individuals act in an emotional, senseless, and often-self-destructive way. . . They are motivated by anger, rage, frustration, hurt, confusion or depression. They have no clear goals and often exhibit purposeless, self-defeating behavior.' They typically issue no demands, because 'What they want is what they already have, the victim. . . . The potential for homicide followed by suicide in many of these cases if very high.'

Still convinced we were dealing with a hostage situation? In reality, there were hostages. But from a negotiators' point of view, trying to comprehend and predict how his gunman is likely to react, he has to see past the obvious and I think he/she probably realized this afternoon that the gunman was exhibiting classic non-hostage-taker traits.

According to the Park County Sheriff's descriptions, the gunman was acting erratically and appeared to have no clear idea what he wanted to accomplish. He did not appear to seize the hostages with an agenda, but in some sort of desperation. Desperate people tend to do desperate things. Or as the FBI piece puts it, 'The potential for homicide followed by suicide in many of these cases if very high.'

The outcome bears that out: homicide followed by suicide is exactly what happened. Of course the SWAT team bursting into the room may have provoked that--or it might have just accelarated it. Not everyone responds to an attack by shooting the victim, much less killing himself. The fact that he did bolsters the probability that he had been erratic all along, and headed in that direction.

Consider also, how the negotiations were progressing. The same FBI piece cites eleven criteria for assessing progress. It states:

The following indicators signify progress and generally mean that current negotiation initiatives should continue. Specifically, since negotiations have begun:

• no additional deaths or injuries have resulted,
• the subject has reduced threats and is using less violent language,
• the subject's emotions have lowered,
• the subject has exhibited increased rationality in speech and action,
• deadlines have passed [Note from Dave. This one can be confusing; I believe it means that deadlines imposed by the subject have passed, without incident]
• the subject has become increasingly willing to bargain,
• the subject has lowered demands,
• the subject has released a hostage,
• the negotiator has built a rapport with the subject,
• the subject has made positive statements about the welfare of the hostage/victim and/or
• the subject has asked about the consequences of surrendering.

We don't have all the information yet, but from the sheriff's press conference, it sounded like only two of those eleven criteria had been met--the most basic two: letting hostages go and refraining from murder. And he had stopped releasing hostages and was giving an ultimatum, so progress there seems to have ended, too. All the other warning signs look pretty bleak, in this case.

If you start with the awareness that a situation like this begins with a high risk of murder/suicide, and then the gunmen fails to exhibit almost any of the indicators that suggest a diffusion . . .

Well, I guess I'd challenge the notion that there would have to have been more risk factors for a prudent commander to order an attack. I'll defer an opinion until I know more, because there is a great deal we don't know.

What I really suggest is that once we do know more, there may be a whole lot of screaming and yelling about it. And the command team's decisions may look wise or they may look foolish. But let's look at them with educated eyes. Just a few pages of reading on hostage-negotiation situations could clarify a great deal. It's just nine pages. Consider reading it.

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(Meanwhile, I feel like hell. This sure dredges up a lot of awful memories. I'm sure it's a hundred times worse for the people I've been working with the past seven years.)

The spokesperson at St. Anthony's Hospital just conducted a very short press conference about the girl shot in that Platte Canyon High School hostage standoff in Colorado.

She said that the family had given her permission to announce that the patient died at 4:32.

God. I kinda figured that was coming, but I was hoping. So, so sad.

Updates on the Platte Canyon High School shooting in Park County, Colorado:

• St. Anthony's Hospital had scheduled an announcement about the victim right about now, but it has been delayed. Victim's advocates have arrived and are conferencing with the family, and there will be an announcement soon.
• The Colorado Bureau of Investigation has taken over the investigation.
• Still no word on motive.
• Many witnesses and their parents have spoken. From various reports (especially KUSA, which seems to be leading the field with good information), it appears that the gunmen had walked through the school trying to hide his identity, with a hooded shirt or jacket. When he went into the classroom, he told them all to line up against the chalkboard. He told all the boys to leave. There are very conflicting reports about some of the other things that went on, so I'm not going to relay them.

I'll have info on the injured girl, soon. It sounds pretty bad, but I saw some Columbine kids make an incredible recovery, so I'm guardedly hopeful.

Update at 6:50 p.m.:

There had been some confusion about who shot the victim. The Park County sheriff said the gunman, but KUSA (9NEWS ) continued reporting the following on its website: "Park County Sheriff Fred Wegener says the gunman then shot and killed himself. However, an ATF source told 9NEWS the SWAT unit shot and killed the gunman." The station is no longer reporting the ATF account on their lead story.

Incidentially, I'm not criticizing KUSA, just clearing that up. They have been leading everyone on this story, and at least from this vantage point, seem to be doing an amazing job. No hype, minimal speculation, good information. Good job.

Local radio station KOA is reporting that St. Anthony's Hospital has said they will have an announcement about the critically injured girl by 6:30 Denver time. That's just over half an hour away.

I'll post the information as soon as it comes.

I don't know if they're showing the Park County press conference nationally, but I just watched the first 30 minutes of it here in Denver. Here are the highlights on what happened at Platte Canyon High School in Colorado, today, all from Park County Sheriff Fred Wegener--with contradictions from other sources in parentheses:

An unknown man entered the school just before noon and apparently fired a single shot. (Earlier reports cited many more shots.) He had a handgun and a backpack, which he said contained a bomb. It now appears that the backpack had nothing. (This contradicts earlier reports.) It was unclear whether he had other weapons.

Deputies rushed in, based on the Active Shooter Program, which was put in place after Columbine. They contained the gunman into a single room, where he had six hostages, all girls. They are a small, rural force, so they called in help from Jefferson County Sheriff (which also handled Columbine), and several other agencies, including ATF.

They were able to talk to the gunman throughout the afternoon, but only through a hostage. The negotiator(s) would shout things and the gunman would respond to the hostage and have her shout the response.

The gunmen let four of the hostages go, one at a time. He was threatening the hostages all along, actually using one as a human shield.

The gunman was very unclear about what he wanted--his main demand was that the cops back off. At one point, he imposed a 4 p.m. deadline, saying that he would break off contact then.

(The sheriff was slightly unclear about this, but apparently the gunman had actually broken off contact earlier, apparently around 3:30.) Then the cops decided that they had to act, and would have the SWAT team move in.)

Shortly after that time, the police team went in, using an explosive device. The gunman shot one hostage, the other got away. Then the gunman shot himself to death. (However, KUSA (9NEWS ) is reporting the following on its website: 'Park County Sheriff Fred Wegener says the gunman then shot and killed himself. However, an ATF source told 9NEWS the SWAT unit shot and killed the gunman.' Update at 6:50 p.m. KUSA is no longer reporting the ATF account on their lead story.)

Cops still don't know who the gunman is.

The girl was critically injured, and flown to St. Anthony's Hospital.

KUSA showed her arrival, and reported that EMTs were applying CPR when the chopper landed on the roof. St. Anthony's has a great trauma department, and is where several Columbine victims were taken, including Patrick Ireland.

The sheriff was choking back tears through much of the press conference, and said he knew the family of the injured girl. It was tough to watch.

Park County really is a wide open spaces kind of place, where people tend to know each other. (And yes, it's the area that South Park is modeled after, to give you an idea. 'South Park' refers to south Park County.)

The RMN is reporting this:

The gunman told all of the boys to leave the classroom and all of the girls to stay, according to students in the classroom next door.

Update:

St. Anthony's is conducting a press conference now (5:24 p.m.). The spokeswoman is saying that the family has asked them not to release information. The family is there with her.

Denver's KUSA TV is reporting that the hostage standoff is over. The Jeffco Sheriff spokeswoman just held a press conference where she at first refused to confirm that, but made it sound that way. Then she was asked if it was over, and she said, "For all intents and purposes."

She's holding off saying more until a 4:30 press conference (30 minutes from now), when the Park County Sheriff or Undersheriff will speak.

Ugh. Too many of these lately.

And two recent ones from adults. The Montreal shooter did several things to make his Columbine-like, in an apparent desperate and disgusting attempt to garner more press. I hope that's not the case here, and/or a new pattern. These are awful enough for kids to do. Adults . . .

This is apparently still going on. No injuries yet, and hopefully it will stay that way.

This from the Denver Post:

A gunman is holding two girls hostage at Platte Canyon High School in Bailey.

Jefferson County spokesperson Jackie Kelley said the parents of the two students being held have not yet been notified.

She said there were no reported injuries, despite multiple shots fired. Originally, six students were taken hostage in a second-floor classroom, she said, but four had been released.

More than 20 jurisdictions have sent law enforcement support, and minor negotiations are underway with the gunman, but Kelley had no information about whether those negotiations had been successful.

Kelly said the gunman is an adult male, between 30 and 50 years old. He is armed, but the caliber of his weapon was unknown. Suspicious devices were found at the school, she said, prompting the bomb squad's response.

Park County authorities requested help from the Jefferson County Sheriff's Department's bomb squad and SWAT team, said Jim Shires, Jefferson County sheriff's spokesman.

From the Rocky Mountain News:

BAILEY — Two Platte Canyon High School students remain in a second floor classroom with an armed man who walked into the school at took six hostages at noon today, prompting the evacuation of hundreds of students.

Four hostages were released uninjured, Jefferson County Sheriff’s Spokeswoman Jacki Kelley said.

Kelley said the gunman is an adult and not a student.

The students taken hostage were in an English college prep class.

At least one suspicious device needs to be checked by a bomb squad, she said.

Authorities continue to negotiate with the man, Kelley said, but are "sporadic."

There were no immediate reports of injuries at the schools in a narrow, winding canyon carved by the South Platte River about 35 miles southwest of Denver. The two schools have an enrollment of about 770 students, with 460 in the high school.

The Rocky also provided this link to google maps, with a satellite view.

You can zoom out to see the location better. The hybrid or map views-options (top, right of the screen) will help you see its location in relation to roads and towns. I made a view that puts it in better relation to Denver.

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UPDATE:

Rocky Mountain News update (same link; they're pasting over previous versions, apparently, which makes sense):

BAILEY — Two Platte Canyon High School students remain in a second floor classroom with an armed man who walked into the school, fired one shot and then at took six female students hostage at noon today, prompting the evacuation of hundreds of students and the closure of Highway 285.

Four hostages were released uninjured, Jefferson County Sheriff’s Spokeswoman Jacki Kelley said.

Authorities believe the man, who is carrying a handgun, is a parent, said Lance Clem of state Department of Public Safety.