Dave Cullen: arianna-ca-gov

Dean's baffling response to the CA recall results

Wed, 08 Oct 2003 06:01:55 GMT

Howard Dean sprang into action when the California results came in, issuing the following statement and getting it up on his blog 18 minutes after the polls closed:

"Today's recall election in California was not about Gray Davis or Arnold Schwarzenegger. This recall was about the frustration so many people are feeling about the way things are going. All across America, George Bush's massive tax cuts for the wealthy are undermining state budgets, causing cutbacks in services and increases in local property taxes. Were recalls held in every state, it's quite possible that 50 governors would find themselves paying the price for one president's ruinous national economic policies. Tonight the voters in California directed their frustration with the country's direction on their incumbent governor. Come next November, that anger might be directed at a different incumbent...in the White House."

What?

Talk about spin. Is it just me or was Dr. Dean out of his mind?

He normally seems right on the mark to me, but this seems insanity. Has there ever been an election more about one person? That man is despised out there. Seems to me (and nearly everyone else) that it was completely about Gray Davis.

And the best thing you could do to piss off all those California voters is tell them it was not.

Why would he want to do that?

(Spin? It would be good for me if it meant this, so . . . ) Surely he's not become that craven. And I don't see how this spin even works for him. The latest debate seems to be whether this result puts CA back in play in the presidential election or it's just all about Gray Davis. You would think Dean would be all over the latter explanation.

Totally out of it? Lost in extreme denial?

I'm thoroughly perplexed.

Now don't get me wrong--I don't think this is ever going to become a big issue (who really cares?) but what the hell was he thinking? Or what does he know that I don't?

Update:

OK, I've been thinking about Dean's CA-recall statement more (and reading the so-so piece just posted in the NYT, which discusses it ), and I guess I see his logic.

He's saying it's dissatisfaction everywhere, and others could face the same thing. That I'll buy. But the fact is that this election wasn't everywhere, it was in one state, and it sure as hell was about Gray Davis. If others elsewhere are also pissed at their leaders, fine, but that doesn't make this situation not about Davis.

And I think to start out his statement by saying so absolutely at odds with reality . . . dumb, dumb move.

Grasping for a silver lining

Wed, 08 Oct 2003 03:17:16 GMT

The only silver lining in the new governership of Schwarzenegger:

I've been worried that past few days about how ugly it would get if Davis did win, how low his ratings could get before his term ran out--and how far he might drag the party down with him. Or Bustamante winning--apparently he wasn't really up to the job of spokesperson for a big state. We could have just replaced one disaster with another.

That situation is so fucked up, anyone in there is likely to end up unpopular. Hopefully Arnold will be run out of there with his tail between his legs, and the Dems can win it back the next time. Unfortunately, that will be too late to help out Howard Dean or Wesley Clark as they try to defeat Bush next fall.

A lot of power comes with incumbency, but I can only hope Arnold's ratings will already be in the toilet by next November. That may be wildly optimistic, but it may well depend on how the groping scandal plays out.

CNN declares Arnold Schwarzenegger the winner

Wed, 08 Oct 2003 03:00:37 GMT

Yes, assuming the nets are playing it safer after the 2000 Florida debacle, the news is:

Arnold Schwarzenegger is the new governor of California.

And Groper in Chief of the biggest state in the union? He may be governor, but he's not out of the woods on that one.

Based on exit polls, CNN declared a winner just a minute after the polls closed. (After a minute of ridiculous preamble--already trying to stretch, apparently):

Davis will lose the recall by a healthy margin, Schwarzenegger will take his place.

Wow, so much for a long suspensful night. (Or a God out there messing around in things, as Arnold suggested today. Obviously He kept out of it.)

And apparently other networks have done the same.

Best asswipe quote from a newsmodel two minutes into the proceedings: Candy Crowley: "This cannot come as a surprise to the Gray Davis campaign, but it certainly, I think, still has to come as a shock."

Think about that Candy. The sad part is, she did. That wasn't an offhand line in response to an unexpected question, that was her canned opening of her lead "analysis" just after Wolf announced the winner.

Shit. Shit shit shit shit shit.

20 minutes till CA polls close

Wed, 08 Oct 2003 02:43:27 GMT

Soon we may know how the Californial recall turned out.

I'll be monitoring the networks as soon as the polls close at 11 eastern, and keep you posted.

I get so excited on election nights. I can hardly wait.

Waiting for the recall -- CNN sucks

Tue, 07 Oct 2003 23:04:03 GMT

Polls don't close in CA till 8 p.m. local time, 11 eastern. How annoying.

Good for them, of course, but still annoying.

Not half as annoying as the CNN coverage, though. Particularly twitlike was Tucker Carlson.

Why don't they just say they have absolutely nothing to say, and they'll be back at 11. (One exception: they have Arnold Schwarzenegger's camp touting internal polls that supposedly indicate he will win. For what that's worth.)

See you in four hours.

I'll have updates here all night as news breaks on the California recall results.

CA recall: up to God now?

Tue, 07 Oct 2003 20:22:42 GMT

Arnold Schwarzenegger shown on CNN saying repeatedly this morning, "It's up to God now" (or the one time, "Up to the God now.")

I just hate that. Look, I believe in God, too, but I think he's leaving this one up to the people of California.

Maybe it's up to you Arnold, and how good a job you did campaigning, and/or groping. Ever think of taking responsibility for your own successes or failures?

---

I'll have updates on the California recall results all night as news breaks.

Heavy voter turnout in California recall vote

Tue, 07 Oct 2003 19:54:33 GMT

AP is reporting very heavy turnout.

I don't know enough about this race to know whether that is a good or bad sign for stopping Schwarzenegger. If anyone knows, enlighten me in the comments and I'll post it.

And here is the latest polling info from the AP story:

The Davis campaign said its internal tracking polls for the past three nights showed voters almost evenly split on the recall issue with just slightly more than 50 percent in favor. Schwarzenegger's campaign, however, said its tracking poll showed the pro-recall side solidly ahead.

The scary part is the 2.2 million absentee ballots sent in before the disclosures on Arnold's groping.

One day left and Arnold slipping

Mon, 06 Oct 2003 16:51:17 GMT

Will he slip hard enough, fast enough?

From AP:

Arnold Schwarzenegger entered the last full day of campaigning for the governorship as a poll showed his support slipping and more women surfaced to accuse the actor of groping them.

Schwarzenegger, who continued to blame the scandal on political dirty tricks, said he wouldn't say anything more about sexual harassment claims, now made by a total of 15 women, until after the election.

"I can get into all of the specifics and find out what is really going on," he told "Dateline NBC" Sunday night. "But right now I'm just really occupied with the campaign."

I can't believe he's brushing them off. At first it appeared like he was apologizing, saying he had learned to do better (lame as that is). Now he's attacking the credibility of these people, and acting like he didn't do much. Appalling.

I can only hope voters are equally appalled.

He's still ahead, but tightening:

A Knight Ridder poll released late Saturday found support for recalling Davis might be slipping, although 54 percent favored removing him while 41 percent were opposed. . . .

The pollsters also found that the percentage of people saying they would definitely vote to oust Davis dropped from 52 percent Wednesday, a day before the allegations against Schwarzenegger began surfacing, to 44 percent Saturday. The poll surveyed 284 people on Wednesday and 200 on Saturday; the margin of error for each day's sample was not released.

The overall poll indicated Schwarzenegger ahead of Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the leading Democrat among the replacement candidates, with 36 percent support to 29 percent.

A poll conducted Sept. 29 and Oct. 1 by the Field Research Corp. had found Schwarzenegger with a 10-point lead over Bustamante -- 36 percent compared with 26 percent. That poll surveyed 465 likely voters and had a margin of sampling error of 5 percentage points.

Ahnuld's erotic Mapplethorpe photos

Wed, 24 Sep 2003 20:15:01 GMT

Drudge claims:

Campaign operatives are scrambling to contain full nude erotic photographs taken by controversialist Robert Mapplethorpe -- full nude photographs of Arnold Schwarzenegger!

The shocking nudes of Republican Schwarzenegger have been kept under lock at the Estate of Robert Mapplethorpe in New York, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

Pretty damn funny. And I'd love to see them. I hope the estate lets them go.

(There was a report of Ahnuld's naked butt available on Drudge, but I'm not finding it there.)

Update:

Thanks to Robert for providing a link to an interesting piece on Ahnuld's run, which also includes a coupe nude photos. (Hopefully this will not brand me as a porn site. It's news people. I'm a scientist. (In my imagination.) That rationale is kind of a stretch, but he is running for Governor of the largest state.)

Anyway, my fave is the one where he's holding a strategically-placed towel almost covering the goods.

Conan sinking like a stone

Mon, 25 Aug 2003 05:50:25 GMT

Each week it gets worse and worse for Ahnuld. He dropped to 13 points behind Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante in the latest poll (LA Times).

50% behind (22% support vs. 35) and dropping is a very unhealthy place for a novelty candidate. It's not hard to see why, though. Have you seen his TV commericals? I saw one and it's nothing but schmaltz: "I'll be the people's governor!" Who is advising him? Don't they get it that he needs to show he's got substance? All that thing does is make him look like a guy who thinks he can play governor on TV. (And when is he making the transistion down to the little screen, by the way. Outside his one reliable terminator character, all his recent movies have tanked.)

He's still got time to turn it around, but all signs so far indicate he'll just keep fading. Nice to see Californians are ready to be starstruck.

I'm sad to say Arianna's campaign has gone nowhere. Perhaps all the freaks running tarred them all with the whacko brush, and people went looking for traditional candidates. Looking more and more like like the most traditional position possible, the #2 spot will just move up. (If Davis gets the boot. His numbers are finally improving).

Conan didn't last

Sun, 17 Aug 2003 23:34:00 GMT

This could be the shortest brilliant political future on record.

Ahnuld may still come back, but odds are not in his favor. I shudder to quote conventional wisdom, but celebrity candidates like him typically have their best day on their first day. They better start way out front, because the novelty fades, hard questions get asked and they start slipping--and others rise as the supremacy of advance name-recognition fades.

Schwarzenegger started with just a ten-point lead--though in percentage terms it seemed huge: 25 to 15--but he has already blown it. Just about a week later, the Field Poll is out and he has dropped to second place: 22% vs. 25% for Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.

I have yet to hear one good notice about him answering any kind of question effectively. Did he not plan for this? Doesn't seem to have said much of anything. If he doesn't correct that fast, it will be a fast and furious slide, with him losing and looking like a jackass. Then his career will really be a joke.

Meanwhile, Davis continues to drop precipitously, as Arianna languishes at four percent. You can watch a video just released by her campaign here.

Starting positions in California

Sun, 10 Aug 2003 20:12:33 GMT

Time/CNN/Gallup released the first big poll on the California gov race this morning. Expect it to look a lot different than the final poll, but it's very welcome as a snapshot of the opening positions. Now we know what everyone is up against, how far they have to rise or fall to win or lose.

First, it shows Davis going down in a recall 54 to 35%. He's got a lot of work to do.

And after watching the focus group on This Week, things look a lot more bleak. ABC said they got a representative sample, and if they did, he's in big trouble. They are incredibly angry and just plain out of faith.

Ahnuld is out ahead on the list of who should replace him, but not nearly as far ahead as a lot of people have been suggesting. It goes like this:

25% Ahnuld

15% Lt Gov. Cruz Bustamante

9% State Sen. Tom McClintock

7% Former Gov. candidate Bill Simon

4% Peter Ueberroth

4% Arianna Huffington

4% Larry Flynt

4% CA Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi

Early polls are most effective at measuring name recognition, so of course Ahnuld is ahead. But because of that celebrity candidates tend to have their best day on the first day, and it's all downhill from there. (They do have the power to prove turn that around if they turn out to have a real knack for politics, but that's the exceptional case.)

Given that, ten points doesn't look like a whole lot. I think we'll know a lot more in a week or two. If he's really good at this right from the start, he might hold that lead. If he's inept, he will squander it quickly. It's really up to him.

I was a bit surprised and sad to see Arianna so far back. I know I am very aware of her, but I guess cable shows and columns and even books, sadly, are niche markets today, and the bulk of the electorate may still be unaware of her. (Or they just not like her, but my instincts say that quite a lot of people aware of her do like her, along with a lot of detractors, of course.)

The one think she has going for her is political skill, though. She's been at some version of this for years now, and she's damn good at it. And so far she's been good at getting her face on TV.

Still, Bustamante entering the race may prove her undoing. The state is pretty solidly Dem at the moment, and a lot of people are pissed off about the recall, and they may gravitate to the safest Dem to keep the gov mansion out of R hands. The more that looks like Bustamante, the worse for her.

But it's early, and anything can happen. I sure am enjoying watching already. I just wish the tabloids like Time and Newsweek could look beyond their celebrity instincts.

Tabloids like Time and Newsweek

Sun, 10 Aug 2003 19:03:21 GMT

Time and Newsweek picked the same cover story again this week, but it's dumbed-down even further this time, even by their sad standards.

It would be one thing to whore their covers out as a way to sell some real meat on the inside. Celebrity covers work for Vanity Fair and Maxim, so these guys might have slapped Conan on the outside and provided real depth on the on the inside: the full California recall story. Nope. All about Ahnuld in there. Time even piles on the celebrity profiling with a sidebar on Kennedy scion and TV newsmodel Maria Shriver, possibly the least-necessary potential-first-lady profile ever. What are they, People?

Yet they still put Newsweek to shame. And I'm no fan of Time, but they look positively intellectual going head to head with Newsweek for the second week in a row. Jonathan Alter only gets half the Newsweek byline this week, but it's his typical cutesy clichefest with almost nothing to say.

Both outlets dredge up the tired old reality show cliche--Newsweek actually leading with it--apparently that would make them Jeff Probst.

Time at least provided a good behind-the-scenes play-by-play of how and possibly why Ahnuld convinced the press and even his own "top adviser" George Gorton that he was at the Tonight Show to announce his withdrawl. They speculate that he may have duped Dianne Feinstein into pulling out by convincing her he had.

George Butler, a co-director of the Schwarzenegger film Pumping Iron, said that if Feinstein dropped out because she believed Schwarzenegger wasn't running, then she fell for the same tactic the bodybuilder used when he wanted to make his opponents believe he would stay out of the competition. "It looked to me like an old-time Arnold maneuver," Butler says. "What you're dealing with is one of the canniest operators who ever walked across the road in America."

So maybe he is wily. He was definitely unscrupulous in those days.

The one public service either mag did in all this was Time's poll in the state, though they screwed up their links so I can't link to it. (More on that soon.)

Guerrilla Politics from Arianna

Sun, 10 Aug 2003 15:17:26 GMT

Ahnuld upstaged Arianna Friday, and she upstaged him back 24 hours later.

She had Friday planned as her big day, carefully orchestrating an announcement designed to get her lots of TV coverage, starting with an announcement on the Today Show. But Ahnuld jumped in the same afternoon and grabbed all her headlines, squeezing out major world developments to lead the national news.

So Saturday she turned the tables. From the San Francisco Chronicle (thanks again to Michael Bedwell for the email):

Arnold Schwarzenegger fought for center stage in California's chaotic recall Saturday, after independent pundit Arianna Huffington effectively stole his media show . . .
The horde of potential candidates on Saturday, the filing deadline in the recall election, created a media circus at the Los Angeles County registrar's office -- the state's largest. Fans of Schwarzenegger showed up as early as 2 a.m.
Screams and cheers greeted the actor when he emerged from a black GMC Yukon . . . Schwarzenegger appeared to be unsettled by Huffington, who timed her entrance just as he emerged from his SUV. The media pundit and author of "How to Overthrow the Government," Huffington -- dressed in an elegant tan pinstriped suit and spike heels -- glided in front of the actor before the dozens of TV cameras and microphones, then held her own news conference when he went inside.

"Arnold Schwarzenegger is a Bush Republican . . . and Bush's policies have been a disaster for California," she told reporters.

Nice. This lady is well known as a pit bull and Conan may be in for more than he bargained for.

with Californians given only seven weeks to make up their minds, "it's going to be guerrilla politics, absolutely," she promised.

Meanwhile, the goober doesn't appear to have prepped very well for the race yet:

The action hero and now candidate -- under increasing pressure to outline his positions on issues ranging from gun control and family leave to gay rights -- said nothing about them, only promising to "be the people's governor."

If he were going to be really good at this, you would think he would have nailed that silly issues stuff day one, pre-empted charges that he's a lightweight.

And he played right into her hands showing up in an SUV, when she led the TV-ad campaign against them.

Huffington said she and Schwarzenegger were outsiders running against professional politicians, but that was about the only thing they had in common. As an example of their differences, Huffington cited the cars they arrived in: Schwarzenegger rolling up in an SUV, she in a Toyota Prius hybrid.

He's got the star power, but she's got the political acumen. Can't wait to see which proves more powerful.

Run Arianna Run

Fri, 08 Aug 2003 21:12:19 GMT

I just watched Arianna (Huffington) on last night's Charlie Rose.

OK, I'm totally behind her. I think she would make a wonderful governor and would really shake things up. (Read her announcement speech here.)

I have these incredibly mixed feelings about celebs running for office, though. I watched the first 20-minute segment (from Charlie) of two journos discussing Ahnuld, and it made me want to retch. The celeb culture we have is bad enough, and these people already have too much political power by virtue of singing or acting well and/or looking beautiful. Beauty is fine (especially on someone like Reichen--heeheehee; I can squeeze him in anywhere), but I don't want it running the country. I hate the thought of celebrity being a stepping stone.

I did have a different view of it with Arianna, though. It's much easier for an outsider--whether they be millionaire businessman like Bloomberg in NYC, or millionaire actor or author--to clean house, without arriving with a lifetime of either favors owed or just entrenchment in the system. It's nice to have someone from a different walk of life arrive in with a different set of eyes. And celebrity or money are about the only plausible ways in for an outsider in the culture we're living in.

While Arianna's celebrity status is what's most likely to get her in there should it work, it's not really fair to judge her celebrity the same way as Ahnuld. She's not famous for building a huge body and then parlaying it into a career as a human action figure, she's famous for being smart. She married into a lot of money, but she also brought a lot of wit and brains to the table. She's been on TV so much because she's so sharp.

And hopefully that famous wit will help her stay on the TV enough to challenge Ahnuld. She was already on Charlie Rose last night and the subject of Tina Brown's column yesterday, and Warren Beaty is apparently behind her. It would be nice to see a thinking woman be able to take Ahnuld on on his own turf. Of course he's going to get the bigger, dumber shows, like Jay Leno, but a lot of people may see him as a bigger, dumber guy. Hopefully.

Ahnuld is running after all

Thu, 07 Aug 2003 02:48:56 GMT

Conan the governor. Please don't let it happen.

He announced on a taping of Jay Leno. How appropriate. One cheesebag to another.

NYT story here.

Go Arianna go!

Boy, it would be funny to watch her whip him. I don't know if she could pull it off, but it sure would be sweet to see.

Governor Arianna

Wed, 06 Aug 2003 21:26:39 GMT

It's for real, she's running.

I wonder what her chances are. I have no idea how to call this one.

I could see it happening, though. She's the kind of person that can stir up real enthusiasm. She's incredibly smart, incredibly funny and has come around to extremely reasonable positions that sound like a good fit for the California electorate. Pretty powerful combination.

And she had enough celebrity status to announce on the Today Show. (So sorry about the posting delay. She said she was going to announce at 10:30 PDT in South Central. So I kept waiting till then to check the wires, and then I got distracted, because I get distracted by everything.)

Early stories from AP and San Jose Mercury News. More info at her new website.

Oh, and Diane Feinstein announced she's definitely out. (So she says, though this one sounds more convincing. The AP story has some details on that as well.)

Governor Arianna? -- announcement tomorrow

Tue, 05 Aug 2003 20:06:59 GMT

I just got an email from Arianna Huffington--along with thousands of other subscribers to her column. She says she has taken two weeks off from her column to do the prelim work on a run for governor of California. And she is announcing her decision tomorrow morning at 10:30 (pacific time, I assume), at A Place Called Home in South Central LA.

You're all invited. It's on the corner of 29th and Central. Email me if you'd like directions. (Seriously. She provided two versions: From the Westside and From the South Bay Area. So I think she's serious about you stopping by.)

More on her campaign at runariannarun.com, which looks like it will be the official website (she's personally directing people to it). And you can join her mailing list there to get regular updates and cut me out of the picture. I'll try to stay on top of the campaign.

I'm officially endorsing her. Heeheehee. But seriously, I am all for her, just snickering at the ridiculousness of me making an endorsement. Apparently anyone is eligible to do that now.

Arianna's in--just about

Tue, 29 Jul 2003 04:46:16 GMT

Salon just posted a cover story by founder/editor-in-chief David Talbot, more or less announcing Arianna Huffington's run for governor of California.

July 29, 2003 | BRENTWOOD, Calif. -- It's not official yet, but she's off and running. That was the message at Arianna Huffington's home in posh Brentwood, Calif., on Sunday afternoon, where several dozen political activists and advisors gathered to hear the author and Salon columnist make her case for jumping into the race to recall California Gov. Gray Davis. The only thing that would keep Huffington out of what is shaping up as an electoral free-for-all would be the sudden entry of a major Democratic rival to Davis -- and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the only likely such 800-pound gorilla, is still rejecting entreaties to rescue the party from the rapidly melting Davis.

"If Feinstein runs, I won't," Huffington told the Sunday gathering. "This campaign is to win, not to be a spoiler and hand the state over to the Republicans."

Wow. I have a little trouble picturing it, but if Ah-nuld bows out or tanks and the recall goes against Davis. Maybe. And I would LOVE to see her governor. A smart Jesse Ventura. And a wisecracker who's actually funny. Man, she would shake things up. I would kill to see that woman take over a major state. I'd actually rather see her in there than Diane Feinstein.

She said she'll make it official next week, "I want to wait just a few days to see if any political reasons emerge for me not to run." Which Talbot translates as "a last-minute entry by Feinstein."

Keep watching. This could get really interesting. In a good way, for once.