. . . Skinny Ryan after all.

So I was right last week, in spite of all my damn second thoughts tonight.

(And for the record, Osten got just two votes: Ryan and Lill, who yes, it appears, really is that dumb. Or maybe that smart about her own skin. She knows she's likely next after Ryan goes, but seems like a better survival strategy would be to try to win a few challenges. And everything can change, so someone else could easily be voted off. But without Osten . . . She's just a really dumb person, I'm afraid.)

I'll be on a plane during the Early Show tomorrow, so I won't see his interview until next week.

It was kinda sad to see Ryan's final comments, though. He has no clue, apparently, why he got the boot.

Survivor Pearl Islands page here.

Head to the Survivor open thread for all comments this week.

Well, I was right (apparently) on the strategy, but those Morgan's managed to come ashore way out in front and still fuck it up. Bozos.

Ging into tribal council, I'm once again thinking it will be Ryan.

I just can't see them voting Osten out, no matter how much they think he deserves it. Andrew had it exactly right: "Gizzly Adams and those two other horses they got"--no way Morgan can compete against that without Osten's back. They're losing badly enough already.

Lill was also dead-on about him being a baby. I sure don't see his body given out. He seems to have talked himself into that feeble excuse.

Of course Ryan will have to vote for Osten, and probably Lill--though is she that dumb?--but I bet two votes is probably the most he gets. (You can't vote for yourself, I think.) I can't see him getting four votes. If he does, they deserve anything and everything that follows.

And the second person voted off Survivor Pearl Islands is . . . (back in a few once I know).

Remember, head to the Survivor open thread for all comments this week.

Wow. Never would have picked Osten to be the first big baby. Unbelievable that somebody so strong--and mentally strong, too, I thought--could crumple so easily.

To watch Skinny Ryan, wondering how he finds enough energy in that body to keep his arms and legs moving without devouring his last ounce of flesh, and then see Osten stand there saying, "I'm spent," with that chest packing enough meat to feed a family of five for six weeks . . . Just doesn't compute.

And what did he think they were going to face?

Tijuana did a good job rallying him. I bet he'll come around, but that early wimpiness will haunt him. (Hmmmmm. Or it might make him look less threatening, but I doubt it. One look at that body--and a body to die for, I might add--and he'll always loom like a threat. Unlikely he could ever make it to the finals, and if he did, now he has undermined his biggest asset, that he was strong and powerful, presumably would have won lots of challenges and maybe been the strength that held people together. He's out of the running. That's a shame.

Meanwhile, I was incredibly impressed with how Sandra comported herself when she landed at Morgan as the pirate. She made a great first impression, though being the tarp-thief might have earned their eternal enmity. I thought she was really nice about that too, but the pain was apparently too much and they projected all their anger onto her. Someone called her a bitch; when was she ever a bitch? And they were stupid and pigheaded as usual to make her take it down, instead of deconstructing it the way they wanted. The Morgan's just can't make a smart decision to save their lives.

(Except maybe strategizing for the immunity challenge. It is just about to start, but I see they put most of their strongest people on the raft, while Drake put their strongest on shore. Opposite strategies, can't wait to see it play out. I'm betting Morgan got it right for once. If I'm right, Drake's first big mistake is going to be a doosey.)

Oh, and Sandra was stupid to gloat about how much fun pirating was at the immunity challenge. That could cost her dearly once the tribes are mingled or merged.

Survivor Pearl Islands page here.

Head to the Survivor open thread for all comments this week.

So Rupert, everyone's favorite Survivor last week, turns out to be an asshole in no time. "My" spear? That was bad enough. Crucifying Shawn for losing the spearhead was unforgivable.

And he was unapologetic, just wouldn't stop. What a dick.

But what's with the woman calling Shawn the biggest puss she's ever seen? Is she warped too, or is there a lot more to Shawn Mark Burnett is holding back? Would he do that?

Remember, head to the Survivor open thread for all comments this week.

Two mintues into the show, I screamed "Doh!"

What was I thinking, predicting Skinny Ryan would go. Of course I was supposed to think that, that's exactly where Mark Burnett was leading me. So of course it won't be him.

I remembered the fundamental rule of watching Survivor as the second episode opened and the immediate focus was on Skinny Ryan's (make that Etheopian Ryan's) failings. Rule #2: whoever begins an episode looking like the target will be back on the show the next week.

So now I have no idea. Just not Rupert--I remembered enough to know that much. (I remembered that the previews were always misleading, but I guess that's how I fell for Ryan--he wasn't featured as a target there.)

I'm nearly halfway through the show, and enjoying it immensely. Crazy how one team so often has a love fest, while the other scrapes by miserably and attacks itself. It's like they're on two different shows. Really illustrates how personalities make all the difference. Same exactly scenario, one team is in paradise, the other in hell.

That's what I love most about watching this show. Watching what people make of what they're given, and such different roads they can take. But it's not forever, which is also interesting. Sometimes the fuckups get it together, sometimes they don't. I'm not holding my breath for Morgan, though they may be switched around soon.

And the initial twist of the series where they were suprised into starting with only their photo-shoot clothing sure has paid off aesthetically. All the boys are bouncing around in wet boxers. Can't beat that.

(Odd that so few wore briefs. Could the producers have had a hand in that? I'm just grateful they weren't.)

Meanwhile, I can't help wondering what Burton is going to look like when all the fur grows out on his chest and abs. He looks great with the close-cropped trim, but those muscles will be a bit obscured once he gets his full winter coat. It won't all grow in in five weeks, but will be interesting to watch.

My favorite to watch above the neck is Cute Ryan. Not much of a bod, but I like the way he holds himself, and I love that expressive face. He's adorable.

Remember, head to the Survivor open thread for all comments this week.

Just to review my Survivor predictions for this week:

• Morgan to lose the immunity challenge.
• Skinny Ryan to get the boot.
• If Drake loses immunity, much tougher call, but I'll go with Jon The Annoyer.

Fuller explanation here.

Remember, go to the Survivor open thread for all comments this week.

My Survivor Pearl Islands page will link to this post all week as the place to post Episode Two comments, so you can find it easily and everyone can gather in the same place.

The east coast just finished watching, so the comments will have spoilers. If you're on the left coast or mountains, don't read till you've seen it.