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Sunday, October 5, 2003

Flypaper Follies
I missed this last week, when it ran, but Phil Carter's Intel Dump weblog, as part of a longer post outlined four reasons why the "flypaper" strategy--beloved of idiots--actually helps Al Qaeda survive.

(1) First, this strategy, helps Al Qaeda raise money . The American occupation of Iraq inflames Arab opinion. It will help Al Qaeda raise money from moderate and radical Arabs for charitable and terroristic operations -- money which is fungible and highly moveable between the two operations. Furthermore, our war in Iraq will increase Al Qaeda's ability to recruit sympathetic persons around the world who are willing to move money around the world through the hawala system or other informal means.

(2) Our war in Iraq also helps Al Qaeda build its logistical support infrastructure . A moderate Arab may not hate the U.S. enough to be a terrorist himself, but he may not mind letting them use his address for a visa, or store something in his warehouse. To the extent that our war inflames opinion among moderate Arabs and others against the United States, it will increase the number of people willing to lend discrete support for Al Qaeda. Such support may not include actual participation in a terrorist act, but it doesn[base ']t need to. Simply providing logistical support to Al Qaeda enables it to be a global terror network. The ability to move men and materiel across borders is a key component of Al Qaeda[base ']s organizational strength, and this ability will likely benefit from our war in Iraq.

(3) The war in Iraq will also produce a generation of trained guerilla fighters for Al Qaeda to recruit as terrorists . One reason for Al Qaeda[base ']s lethality today is its skill base, which was gained through combat in Afghanistan, Sudan and Somalia, among others. The current guerilla war in Iraq is being fought in a complex operational environment, against a determined and sophisticated adversary (the United States and Britain). Moreover, these guerillas are learning the art of terrorism as theater, with legions of reporters and non-governmental organizations present to witness their actions. Just as Afghanistan and other conflicts provided training for Al Qaeda[base ']s recruits in the 1980s and 1990s, so too may Iraq provide the boot camp for terrorists in the 21st Century. Indeed, these fighters may form the new cadre for Al Qaeda to replace the fighters we have killed or captured in Afghanistan.

(4) Finally, success breeds success . Al Qaeda depends on the conduct of "spectacular" operations for recruiting, financing, and other sustenance needs. Iraqi insurgents (possibly aided by Al Qaeda) have been able to successfully hit American and British forces in Iraq over and over again, producing casualties and frustrating the rebuilding effort there. These successes are much easier won than spectactular operations such as Kenya or 9/11, and they are probably helping Al Qaeda sustain itself in the Arab court of public opinion.

So we now know that the flypaper fools not only advocate throwing away American lives, but that their plan strengthens the enemy in the process.

Good thing the GOP is in charge of national security.
3:20:27 PM    comment []trackback []


Tax Cuts and Wal-Mart
Today, The Blade printed an aritcle on how affects of the tax cut aren't showing up at Wal-Mart. The article shows how the tax cuts aren't helping consumers at the lower- and middle- end of income spectrum. The Blade got the article from Bloomberg News, and I can't find it anywhere on-line--I assume that it is proprietary Bloomberg content.

Because of its size, Wal-Mart's sale are closely monitored by economists, including those who work for the Federal Reserve. Wal-Mart not only accounts for 9% of all US retail sales, but its shoppers income level is also close to the median income of all US households.

The initial evidence: The tax cut won't spark a spending boom.

Sales are rising 3.4 percent this year at Wal-Mart and Sam's Club stores, about half the average gains of the past decade, reflecting US economic growth of 2.3 percent as opposed to 3.2 percent in the last in the past 10 years.

The demographics of a Wal-Mart shopper are important here. 60% of Americans with household incomes between $24,000 to #36,000 have shopped at Wal-Mart recently. But only one-quarter of those making above $75,000 have shopped at Wal-Mart over the same period. So the sales at Wal-Mart are a decent indicator of how the tax cuts are stimulating consumer spending.

Wal-Mart shoppers this year are buying the lowest-price merchandise, including 25-cent Kids Connection sodas and $5.88 second-run DVDs. When Wal-Mart cut prices by 8 cents on Uniilever's Suave shampoo to 88 cents, purchases jumped 25 percent

12:53:39 PM    comment []trackback []

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