The Agora

From Reuters:

Turkish Cypriot supporters and opponents of a U.N. plan to reunify the island of Cyprus looked set to win an equal number of parliamentary seats after Sunday's landmark poll which also holds the key to Turkey's EU hopes.

With more than 90 percent of votes counted, the main opposition Republican Turkish Party (CTP) and two other pro-reunification parties had 51 percent, while the two parties backing veteran leader Rauf Denktash had about 45 percent.

CTP leader Mehmet Ali Talat claimed victory, but later acknowledged that a complex electoral system could leave the rival blocs evenly tied in the 50-seat assembly. However, he ruled out a coalition with the pro-Denktash parties.

"(That is) almost completely impossible," he told Reuters.

Talat's party was seen winning 19 seats, one more than the main pro-Denktash party.

The poll, officially recognized only by Turkey, is widely seen as a referendum on Denktash's rejection of a U.N. plan to reunify Greek and Turkish Cypriots living divided on the island for almost three decades.

"It's... a referendum between those who want a settlement and those who don't," said prominent businessman Fikri Toros.

The result could determine whether Turkish Cypriots join the European Union next year in a federation with the Greek-speaking south, or hunker down under continued international sanctions.

The EU has sent a clear message to Turkey that its chances of starting full accession talks will be seriously impeded if Ankara fails to push the Turkish Cypriots to a deal.

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From Reuters:

Pro-EU Turkish Cypriot opposition leader Mehmet Ali Talat claimed victory on Sunday in landmark parliamentary polls and said he would form a coalition government.

Talat, speaking after more than half of the votes had been counted, vowed to unite with other parties opposed to veteran Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash.

"We don't have the exact results yet, but it will be a coalition," he told Reuters. Results after more than half of the ballots had been counted gave opposition parties 51 percent of the vote.

There is more at stake than just the nature of the government of the unrecognized (by everyone except Turkey) nation:

The European Union will admit only the internationally-recognized Greek Cypriot side if the 29-year-old division of the Mediterranean island is not ended by May when the Republic of Cyprus joins the EU, along with nine other mostly ex-Communist countries.

Many fear that failure to reach a settlement will trigger tensions between the EU and Turkey, itself a membership candidate.

Turkish troops have held northern Cyprus since 1974 when they intervened in response to a Greek Cypriot coup aimed at uniting Cyprus with Greece. They will find themselves occupying a EU territory once Cyprus becomes a member.

EU leaders meeting in Brussels Friday told Ankara a settlement of the problem would "greatly facilitate" its bid for membership

Though a political victory may not be enough, since the current President would remain in power, and could continue to fight re-unification.

Denktas told A.A correspondent that he did not believe that opposition parties would gain serious amount of votes in Sunday's elections in TRNC.

"We know they won't gain serious amount of votes but if they win a majority at parliament, my duty is to designate them to form the government. After they are given this duty, they may try to sign Annan plan... This plan considers rights given to Turkey and us under 1960 treaties non-existent. Therefore, I can sue them so that they can't sign the plan," Denktas said.

Denktas noted that those parties could not end rights granted to Turkey under international agreements by signing Annan plan and without the consent of Turkey.

"It seems to me that I can have the right to sue them in such a case," Denktas added.

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