Sunday, February 22, 2004

Debate Here's hoping that the Kerry and Edwards campaigns accept the invitation of the Blade to debate in Toledo. Among the states holding primaries on March 2, there may not be a better site to highlight Democratic issues than Toledo. Export, agriculture, and manufacturing are all important facets of the local economy. High quality public schools and and the costs of higher education are chief concerns of a populace suffered through the economic downturn of the last three years. Our position next to one of the Great Lakes, and the proximity of the ecologically sensitive Oak Openings region makes this a great place to highlight environmental issues. We are a democratic enclave in a Republican controlled state, and Ohio's electoral votes might be up for grabs in November. If Ohio is in play, the eventual nominee will need a strong showing in Lucas County to win the state. And never forget that in January, President Bush came to Toledo, hid from protesting Union members and mocked those workers by claiming that the job losses in manufacturing were caused by frivolous lawsuits, rather than the inept economic policies of an administration unconcerned about the troubles of the blue-collar middle class of the Midwest. In short, if you want to win, come to Toledo. Also, it would be nice to invite some bloggers. 12:50:55 PM    comment []trackback []

Annoyed With Assholes Today I've mentioned before that I work in a field related to commercial development. My brief covers every aspect of commercial development: retail, industrial, multi-family and single-family residential. I know that there is a slowdown in projects--I see it every morning when I look at my in-box. Glen Reynolds and Virginia Postrel both claim that the "Jobless recovery" is a myth. In Lucas County, Ohio, it's not the word "jobless" that is a myth; it's the recovery that is mythical. Slow Times for Commercial The commercial construction industry has been suffering, and that has hurt those in related skilled trades. For example, members of the plumbers union last year recorded 1.4 million hours on the job, down from a 10-year average of 1.9 million hours. "In my 33 years, it's the worst I've seen," said Steve Klepper, vice president of business development with Lathrop Co. contractors and construction managers. Workers in 11 trades logged 5.5 million hours locally last year, down from 6.5 million the previous year and 7.25 million in 2001, according to Bill Brennan, president of Associated General Contractors. His group represents commercial industrial contractors and nine other trade associations. Many in the industry are calling the last year and a half a recession. Dennis Duffey, business manager of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 8, is harsher: He said it has been a depression. Six hundred of the union's 2,000 electricians are unemployed, and that's an improvement from October when 730 were out of work. Mr. Duffey said he has seen electricians delivering parcels and working at Home Depot. Some cut lawns last summer. This downturn is different from most to Mr. Duffey because it is so widespread nationally. For the first time in memory, the local electricians union did not accept an apprenticeship class last year. Across Lucas, Wood, and Fulton counties, commercial construction dropped 33 percent from 2002 to 2003, according to McGraw-Hill Construction's Dodge division of construction information. It logged less than $193 million in such construction in the three counties last year. Down were retail, office, and industrial segments, said Bill Bostleman, president of Bostleman Corp., Maumee. Things might be picking up a little, but a return to levels of employment seen even two years ago appears unlikely. He predicted a 2 to 4-percent increase in commercial construction across northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan this year compared with last year. He fears some of the largest projects will be delayed until 2005. "The trend is positive. That's the good news," he said. "We think we've hit bottom." For those who depend on construction jobs to pay their bills, however, such an outlook means more of the same. "It looks brighter today than it has in a long, long time," said Mr. Duffey of the electrical workers union. "But I don't know if it's bright enough to get all our people back to work." According to Virginia Postrel all of these worker have bright futures as nail technicians ahead of them Similarly, the bureau has missed more than 300,000 manicurists. It puts the total at around 30,000, compared with the count of 372,000 -- up from 189,000 a decade ago -- by Nails magazine, using private survey and state licensing data. Even if not all licensed manicurists are practicing, the bureau number is off by an order of magnitude. There are 53,000 nail salons in the country, most of them with more than one manicurist. The industry supports two major trade magazines, each with about 60,000 subscribers. I love it when a law professor or a New York Times columnist tells a skilled tradesman that things are great when their only hope of keeping their family fed and housed to change careers and start giving facials. [Update:Rayne did the math on the beauty economy that neither I not Postrel bothered to do. Conclusion: Postrel's full of crap.] 11:04:22 AM    comment []trackback []