Tuesday, January 14, 2003

Don’t Think Bush Has Lost his Arrogance about Iraq   There have been a spate of stories in the last couple of days about how the U.S. may be forced to delay invading Iraq, starting with the Wall St. Journal on Monday.  I think this is a disingenuous response to mounting opposition to the war.   Three things stand out.  First, the juxtaposition of Korea and Iraq shows that the invasion of Iraq is totally driven by ideology and oil.  Threats to national security, such as that posed by a Korean nuclear strike capability, are dealt with carefully and with pragmatism.  Iraq is under threat of invasion precisely because it is not a threat to U.S. national security, but rather a weak target of opportunity by those who want to reestablish U.S. military control over Arabia.   Secondly, the weakness of the threat of Iraq will force Bush to invoke some dramatic pretext for a strike.  When Germany invaded Poland on Sept. 1st, 1939, they did so by staging an attack on their own forces, and then blaming the Poles for starting the war.  Bush is likely to do the same thing.  With this strategy, he can be as conciliatory and as polite as he wishes, because in the end he will rely on a dramatic provocation to launch a war.   Third, the U.S. is finding the cost of the invasion is going up, as it becomes more and more likely it will have to go it alone.  This must be causing consternation in Washington.  The cost is going up because Turkey may refuse to allow a second front, Europe, with the exception of Britain, is determined to actively oppose a war with words, if not deeds, and the whole Iraq scenario is becoming more and more Bush’s gamble.   There was a reason his father got out quickly. It was that he had no strategy for staying in.  Neither does Shrub, but that is not stopping him.   Meanwhile, we see an upsurge in antiwar sentiment in Lexington.  Fewer people are considering it a fait accompli, and as a result, more people are turning out for vigils and demonstrations, there is more activity on our web site, and I expect the marches in Washington this weekend will be large.   The weakness of Bush’s position is actually encouraging more people to oppose him.  Why, if he hasn’t invaded by May, expect even some democrats to come out of the woodwork and say they have changed their minds about giving him a blank check to invade Iraq.   So I think the bottom line is that Bush has got himself into a situation where if he doesn’t invade, it will destroy his presidency.  The mark of an incompetent leader is that he consistently is surprised when events don’t work the way he expected them to.  Bush is now learning the world is more complicated than the story of the Hungry Caterpillar.    11:11:24 PM   comment []

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