The Devil's Excrement
Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.
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Monday, June 09, 2008


Remember the Venezuelan National Guardsman captured in Colombia with 40,000 bullets for the FARC's AK-47 rifles?

The same one that General Fredys Alonso, Commander of the Venezuelan National Guard said "When we received the information, we immediately began to inquire and I can say with all propriety that there does not exist neither in the payroll, nor in the ranks of the National Guard an active or retired member with the name Manuel Agudo Escalona"

Remember that? It was all another charade by the hateful and lying Colombian authorities to make Venezuela and its Government look bad, much like the Reyes fake computer information.

Well, we had another flip-flop today on Sergeant  Agudo Escalona. You see, General Alonso's exhaustive search within his own ranks, active and retired, failed to turn up not a soldier, but a sergeant, who was indeed caught in Colombia, but here is where the two stories diverge, as told by Badass Rodriguez Chacin in a press conference. 

It turns out that the honorable Sergeant Agudo Escalona was simply set up by the Colombian authorities. He was offered to accompany someone across the border, in order to smuggle some 500 million Bolivars (US$ 200,000) across the border, for which he was offered payment.

The Sergeant was asked to please wear his uniform to make the whole thing more effective I guess. He the boarded a boat with the money (He did not mention how many suitcases it takes to pack Bs. 500 million) and three people who were unknown to him introduced three boxes in the boat with the ammunition. At that point a commission from the Colombian Army showed up and detained him in what was clearly a trap to catch this Sergeant in an illegal activity different than the one he thought he was carrying out. 

Of course, there is no explanation as to why he pleaded guilty on Saturday if he was so trapped. And we are to believe a man who the FARC called a "true badass" when he tels us this story about poor Sergeant Agudo, who by the way was being paid some US$ 40,000 to accompany the money across the border.

Nice work if you can get it, nice tale if you believe it. 

But after so many tales, contradictions and flip-flops, does Badass really expect us to believe this new tale from the fascist revolutionary crypt?

10:08:41 PM    comment []


In yet another flip-flop and about face in policy, Hugo Chavez called today for the FARC guerrillas to give up their fight after forty years of death and destruction in Colombia. Chavez' statement represent a remarkable shift in policy by  the Venezuelan President who enraged many in the region, including Colombia's Government, by asking last Fall that the FARC be recognized as a "legitimate insurgent force". Moreover, the Venezuelan President called on the FARC to give up all of the hostages in their hands in exchange for...

Nothing.

After months of trying to negotiate that the Colombian Government clear an area of that country for the rebels in exchange for a handful of hostages.

This represents a remarkable about face which closes Chavez' attempt to get recognition by negotiating with the FARC the release of the hostages, which in the end turned out to be not only a gigantic failure, but seems to have been used by the Colombian Government to track down and destroy the main leaders of the guerilla movement, as barely three of the hostages have been released and Ingrid Betancourt remains in captivity.

For Chavez it is a risky call, likely driven by the content of Reyes' computer. Risky, because the FARC seems to be in disarray and it is likely that it will be difficult to achieve a consensus on Chavez' request. But he could come out of all this smelling better if Betancourt is finally liberated.

Chavez involved himself in the FARC/hostage negotiations thinking that it may lead to the Nobel Peace Prize, but he underestimated Uribe's understanding of the FARC and his determination to destroy the group. Meanwhile, the FARC has always had a convergent but parallel agenda to Chavez and never trusted him completely instead using him for their own purposes. This led to many failures and few rewards for Chavez as Uribe stood back and used the extra noise surrounding Chavez' negotiations to track down the FARC leaders.

The flip flop represents the fourth one in one week, as Chavez seems to be using polls and Reyes' computers to redefine himself in surprising fashion. As Pedro Mario Burelli said, Chavez seems to be running away at full speed from Hugo Chavez in a sign that he is worried about his standing, both nationally and internationally.

Internationally, it is hard to believe that the information in Reyes computer will not come out to tell us the true story of Chavez' tight realtionship with the FARC. Nationally, it may hold back Chavez in terms of what Bills he may enact under the umbrella of the Enabling Bill that expires in mid July. Most likely, Chavez will look for the National Assembly to extend that Law, so that he can use it to push his personal political project after the November elections.
12:04:49 AM    comment []



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