Friday, April 04, 2003

SARS and the Global Economy Perma-Bear economist Stephen Roach from Morgan Stanley, is predicting a Global recession this year, blaming SARS as an important part of it. Well, somehow I just can't see yet SARS being such an important factor given this graph using data from the World Health Organization (WHO): it seems to me that the number of cases continues to grow linearly, the discontinuos jump being an artifact of the Chinese reporting a number of earlier cases at the end of March. Note the slope appear to be both the same as well as linear below and above the discontinuos jump. Typically epidemics spread exponentially in their initial stages, so unless Mr. Roach knows something I don't, I just don't buy it. (I think (hope?) this graph will update automatically as Paul Kedrosky, its author, updates it)   7:09:11 PM    comment []

The sickening crunch of bone If you had any doubts as to the extent of the terror Iraqis have suffered, the press conference by the four jailed reporters is simply chilling, particularly the quote "Never seen, only heard: the sickening crunch of bone" 6:58:08 PM    comment []