The Devil's Excrement





  The Devil's Excrement
Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.
Last updated:
4/2/2007; 9:49:29 PM

The 2005 Weblog Awards
July 2006
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 31          
Jun   Aug












Google


WWW
The Devil's Excrement


Subscribe to this blog in Radio:
Subscribe to "The Devil's Excrement" in Radio UserLand.

Click to see the XML version of this web page.

E-mail this blog's author, Satan's Poop Inc. Paila Master:
Click here to send an email to the editor of this weblog.
 

Tuesday, July 11, 2006



In another act of financial irresponsibility and stupidity, the Venezuelan Minister of Finance announced that Venezuela will issue a bond with Argentina. The two countries will issue a “b-national” bond with Argentina, which was confirmed today by President Kirchner.


While all details are unknown, the idea would be to issue a joint bond so that Argentina can benefit of Venezuela’s better financial strength to pay less. Some deal, no? These are the same guys that scream sovereignty anytime the word Venezuela is said with an accent, but then could care less about using the country’s funds to benefit others or crime rising 200% since Chavez took over. Some sovereignty!.

The whole thing is in the end a tremendous rip-off for Venezuelans. Argentina will piggy back on Venezuela’s better credit rating to pay less, which means Venezuela will pay more. Moreover, at least part of the operation is likely to contain bonds sold in Venezuela in Bolivars. The way this would work, would be for the Venezuelan Government to place the bond locally in Bolivars, say US$ 1 billion, turn around buy US$ 1 billion from the Central Bank at the official rate of exchange and send it over to Argentina for their financing needs. In this process, Venezuela has fewer reserves and will be partially responsible for the bond if Argentina ever stops paying.

There have been rumors that Venezuela would offer some for of collateral or guarantee, but today the Minister denies this will be the case and it will be a mixture of the two risks. The country can not offer any collateral because that would violate clauses of other issues outstanding that would have to receive the same treatment.

The Minister said again that Venezuela had made a profit buying Argentinean’s Boden during the last year. Such profits only exist because the Government has access to the official arte of exchange as I explained on Sunday. Meanwhile, Merentes also announced that the country had bought US$ 25 million in Ecuadorian bonds and the Head of Bandes said they would buy US$ 100 million in Itaipu Falls bonds. The same bonds that Lula said could not be sold to Venezuela by Paraguay.

What makes all of these operations even more mysterious is the fact that Argentina needs no more financing to fulfill all of its obligations during 2006, according to most research from international brokerage firms. So, what is the rush for Venezuela to subsidize Argentina instead of issuing its own new debt at lower costs? Why do something that goes so clearly against the national interest and the country’s finances?

A we say in Spanish: “Think badly and you will be right!”


11:10:21 PM    comment []



Hats off to Mexican scientists that in just a week are producing data and short papers and posts on the analysis of the elections in Mexico. If Venezuelan scientists had responded with similar speed and flexibility maybe some part of history may have been changed with the 2004 RR. Maybe the precedent helped!

The paper on Benford’s law by Mansilla finds some discrepancies with the 8th. and 9th. digit, which may be statistically significant, but nothing like those found in the No vote for the RR, it will be interesting to see in the future further detailed statistical analysis like what was done in Venezuela and what it may tell us.

There is also a long analysis and discussion by Mochan on the evolution of the reported vote on the night of the election and the recount. Lots of data and comments, but I have not digested it sufficiently to understand even the graphs he is showing, but it looks quite interesting.

I guess those Governments that want to cheat in future elections in LA are going to have to hire scientists so that whatever they do to change the outcome matches all of these tests for the adequacy of their fudged results.

Maybe one day UNEFA will honor them?

I find the whole thing very cool!


6:08:36 PM    comment []



© Copyright 2007 Satan's Poop Inc. Paila Master. Click here to send an email to the editor of this weblog.
Last update: 4/2/2007; 9:49:31 PM.
Powered by
BloGalaxia

Directory of Politics Blogs