The Devil's Excrement





  The Devil's Excrement
Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.
Last updated:
4/2/2007; 9:53:26 PM

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Tuesday, August 29, 2006



Today the Mayor of the Metropolitan area of Caracas Juan Barreto created another ruckus by issuing a decree declaring the “forced acquisition” of the golf courses at Caracas Country Club and Valle Arriba Country Club. Last week, in his by now infamous speech, Barreto had threatened that he was going to expropriate the golf courses at La Lagunita Country Club, but that particular course was not part of the decree today.

The question is what does this mean? Is it a real serious threat to private property rights? Is it legal? Does he mean it or is it just political?

To begin with, expropriation is part of Venezuela’s legislation. However, to be able to expropriate, you have to first show that the expropriation is for the “common good” and serves a social purpose, in this case this should be done by the city council, but was not done prior to the decree. The second step is to issue a decree and finally, you can not take over the property until you have provided the owners with “adequate” compensation and legal recourse. Thus, in terms of the legal framework, the process begins weakly, due to the absence of the decision by the city council on the matter.

The next question is what is adequate compensation for this land? That is harder to gauge given the extensions of land and their implied valuations, but le’s say the area is some two million square meters per course and at $1,000 per square meter you are talking a few billion dollars each of the golf courses.

The Metropolitan Mayor’s office certainly does not have that type of money to spend around and in Venezuela it does not have the legal ability to issue bonds, so the Central Government would have to do it. Would the Central Government be interested? Anything is possible in the revolution, but it seems like a mighty steep price for something which has relatively low impact, no more than 10-15,000 hosuing units. The land we are talking about can be seen below in these maps from Google Earth, showing at equivalent scales the 18 holes of each course, with Country Club on the left below and Valle Arriba on the right. You shoudl be able to discern the golf courses easily:

 

The problem is that the process required to build housing would simply not stop here. In order to truly use these land for building residential units for people, one would have to change the zoning from recreational to residential and then obtain the required building permits. The difficulty is that both rezoning and permits are out of the hands of the Metropolitan Mayor’s office and are only within the domain of the individual municipalities where the golf courses are. In this case, Country Club is 85% within the Chacao municipality and Valle Arriba is within the Baruta municipality. Curiously, the La Lagunita golf course mentioned last week by Barreto, was not included and that one is within the El Hatillo municipality which is not in the hands of the Primero Justicia party, which Barreto seems to despise.

I believe that this is just a ploy to distract attention and generate confrontation. The Chavez administration's style has always been to walk a fine line from a legal point of view. Fights and confrontations are always carried out within gray areas in legislation, so that it is quite confusing to discern whether the Government is within its rights or not.

There is no such gray area here. The Venezuelan Constitution guarantees the right to private property in its Article 115, which says in it that only for reasons of public utility or social reasons, under a firm sentence and opportune and just payment can the expropriation of anything be declared. It would take a large step to fulfill these conditions. Moreover, it is very clear from a legal point of view that the Mayor of the Metropolitan area can neither rezone or approve construction permits within the municipalities involved, which would then also require a huge legal step and violation of the law, for them to go over the Mayors of Chacao and Baruta. It would thus be a huge violation of the law and abuse of power for the Metropolitan Mayor to do this. So far, the Chavez administration has always been hesitant to take such a drastic and clear step of clearly stepping outisde the realm of the rule of law .

Note that I do not imply that they may not want to do it, or are incapable of doing it. It just does not seem like they would pull something like that off just before the Presidential election, when polls clearly say that 76% of Venezuelans strongly believe in the right to private property.

However, creating this scandal certainly distracts attention from the important issues. It is not only a confusing issue, but clearly golf courses only get the sympathy of a minority. Perhaps candidate Manuel Rosales had the right idea when he said today that he would not let “an outgoing Government set the agenda for discussion in the Presidential campaign”.

There were however some strong reactions to the decree today. A City Councilman from the Metropolitan area called it demagoguery, Rosales’ running mate Julio Borges said Caracas needed an integral urban plan not “hormonal responses”, Baruta Mayor said that the Metropolitan Mayor did not have legal authority to even expropriate and Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez said that the Minister of Housing has already said there are n plans to build anything in those golf courses and reiterated that the La Carlota airfield could be used to build housing in a large extension of land.

Barreto rejected once again the possibility of the use of La Carlota for building housing. This is truly a huge puzzle. Chacao Mayor Lopez has proposed a project for that area. The La Carlota airport is only used these days for helicopters (all other flights were banned) but it occupies a huge part of the city. Below on the left you can see the La Carlota airport on the same scale as the golf courses above. Clearly the area is larger, wider and completely open, easier to develop and a change in zoning would be justified and definitely approved by the Mayors of those areas. And nothing woudl have to be paid as the land is owned by the Government itself! A similar case could be made for the Tiuna Fort that can be seen on the same scale, basically occupying the whole image, on the right below:

 

While the news has clearly has people concerned (The parallel market shot up, the stock market went down) I think for the time being the issue should be taken with a grain of salt and efforts should concentrate on showing the Government’s incompetence and promoting Rosales’ candidacy without allowing Barreto and Chavez to set the agenda for discussion. If they really mean it and the law and the Constitution would be bypassed, then it would be the announcement that this is a dictatorship and the autocracy has moved one step forward. I simply don’t think that Chavez is yet ready for that. Nor do I think he would show such a hand before the election.


11:18:45 PM    comment []



I was away due to family matters and there is quite a bit of interest to write about later. The most obnoxious thing I saw was how he headlines were filled with Chavistas denouncing that Rosales was taking adavantge of his position as Governor to advertise and advertise "subliminally". I don't quite get the silnece by both Rosales, the opposition and the media on how much Chavez is taking advantage of his position, including the dozens of ads that are published daily by Government offices and isntitutions, without anyone noticing it or reporting it. I certainly hope that some reading this that has contacts with the media or the Rosales campaign  will let them know about Bruni's "Hall of Shame" compilation of all illegal ads published day after day since the camapign began. That is enough to give the term unfair advantage a new meaning.

8:47:37 AM    comment []



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