The Devil's Excrement





  The Devil's Excrement
Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.
Last updated:
10/1/2007; 9:44:53 PM

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Tuesday, September 25, 2007



Last week, OPEC quietly decided to formalize what everyone but a few fanatics know and as part of its 500,000 barrel a day increase in production, it actually decreased Venezuela’s OPEC quota from 3.223 million barrels of oil a day to 2.470 million barrels of oil a day. There was no announcement related to decision, it was simply slipped into the update of the quota tables ( you can see it here, go to the Nov 07 column in page 2). Clearly this was a high level decision at OPEC, which has been reporting similar levels of production for the country in its monthly oil report and as a serious organization wanted to have consistent numbers..

The decision confirms what analysts, OPEC and the IEA have been saying for the last two years, while the irresponsible Venezuelan administration, including Minister of Energy and Oil Rafael Ramirez and President Hugo Chavez have been telling the country. This simply show the utter contempt these people have towards the citizens of the country and how far they are capable of extending their lies and deceit in the name of their fraudulent political project.

The cynical Venezuelan Oil Minister immediately took issue with OPEC’s decision saying from Houston that “there was confusion and manipulation in this decision…because Venezuela’s quota is set at 11.5%” and requires a resolution by OPEC Ministers to be changed and this has not happened. First time I hear that Venezuela’s quota is a percentage and not a number of barrels per day. IEA has long defended its Venezuelan production figures, even denying the claims that Venezuela has tried to resolve the situation.
The decision leaves Chavez the Emperor quite naked, as it can’t blame some obscure international plot to depose him for a decision that simply formalizes what is the reality: The country’s production has tumbled since 2003 and no evidence exists that the country is producing the levels claimed by the Venezuelan Government. Moreover, Government officials have been lying through their teeth about the true situation, together with their paid international cheerleaders.

As I reported recently, PDVSA’s most recent numbers presented the data in a different manner and showed some new inconsistencies with earlier data. Clearly, the most bothersome aspect of all this is that transparency has been lost in reporting the country’s numbers from PDVSA, to the Ministry of Finance to the Central Bank. This is the reason why, despite oil prices near all time highs, Venezuela’s debt is 25-30% below the highs attained in March of this year. This makes Venezuela less attractive to foreign investors which will require higher yields to invest in the country.

Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC.


8:29:25 PM    comment []



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Last update: 10/1/2007; 9:44:54 PM.
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