The Devil's Excrement





  The Devil's Excrement
Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.
Last updated:
9/1/2008; 8:32:53 PM

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Monday, August 11, 2008


Just for the record, the paper “Analysis of the 2004 Venezuela Referendum and the Relation between the Official Results and the Signatures Requesting it on automated centers” by Gustavo Delfino and Guillermo Salas has been accepted for publication in the Journal “Statistical Science”. (You can download the last version there)

I discussed this paper in this blog before and have always believed that anyone that takes the time to understand Figure 3 will never believe again that there was no hanky panky in the 2004 recall referendum. The paper concludes that the results of the vote were not accurate and that there were significant issues associated with the results of the automated centers which showed and excessive correlation with the results of the recall petition signatures. They also show that the conclusions of the Carter Center report are exactly the opposite of what is found in their paper.


10:11:26 PM    comment []


Curious that a Chavista Deputy goes to the Supreme Court to ask for an injunction to  block the opposition  mayor of Naguanagua in Carabobo State from running to be mayor of the city of Valencia and the Court accepts the injunction and nullifies an article allowing people within a single municipality to run in the other, but in the process ratifies that candidates have to be residents of the city they are running in for the least the last three years.

Curious because if the idea was to block opposition candidate Julio Castillo of Proyecto Venezuela from running, with the decision the court also reminds the CNE about the three year rule which applies (And was not respected) to two of Chavez’ most visible candidates in the Metropolitan Area of Caracas who are in the same situation, former CNE President and country's Vice=President Jorge Rodriguez for the Libertador District of Caracas and fomer multi-Minister Jesse Chacon in the Sucre District.

The Court is clear, in reasoning the case of the municipalities, it says:

“A propósito de lo anterior, el artículo 85 de la Ley Orgánica del Poder Público Municipal exige como uno de los requisitos para ser Alcalde o Alcaldesa residir en el municipio de que se trate, durante al menos los tres (3) últimos años previos a su elección"

which can be translated as:

Speaking of the above, Article 85 of the Ley Organiz del Poder Publico Municipal, demands as one of the prerequisites to be Mayor to reside in the municipality involved during at least the last three years prior to the election… .”

What is most puzzling is that the decision seems to go against precedents in Metropolitan areas which are regulated by the Suffrage law which gives a wider definition of residence to the whole Metropolitan area, while it is the Constitution which requires the three years of residence in the city for which the person is running for Mayor.

Of course, maybe the whole thing is a Machiavellic plot by Chavismo to get rid of two candidates who reportedly are not taking off and replace them without giving an image of division or dissent within Chavez’s PSUV.

In fact, a pro-Chávez member of the Electoral Board said the CNE would have to respect the decision, while the lonely voice of the opposition within the CNE Vicente Diaz, said that the CNE should appeal the decision as the exception for Metropolitan areas has been used in previous elections.

But then, just when I am puzzling over the whole thing, out comes Jesse Chacon and saying it doesn’t apply to “us” because they have never been Mayors, as if the residence requirement had anything to do with the Art. 85 mentioned above. The law happens to be the law.

But who knows, maybe the CNE will allow Rodriguez and Chacon to run and block Castillo, since the law is not applied uniformly in the revolution. Of course, now comes the President of the CNE and backs Chacon’s interpretation.

Does Article 85 of the above mentioned law only exist if the Court rules that it exists?

Not much surprises me any more.


9:17:55 PM    comment []



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