The Devil's Excrement





  Venezuela Referendum Studies
There have been many mathematical and statistical studies and analysis of the results of the Presidential recall referendum vote on Aug. 15th. 2004 in Venezuela. I have posted sufficiently on it to justify a separate category where readers can find all of the posts on the subject of whether there was fraud or not and the methods used to test this.
Last updated:
4/2/2007; 10:54:29 PM

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Sunday, May 14, 2006



Sometimes in the next few hours, I will get the one millionth "page read" according to the salon.com ranking system. Remarkable that what started as a curiosity on my part in August 2002 has had so many visitors and despite its somewhat restricted topic has managed to stay up there in the salon.com rankings. To tell you the truth, its not only had many more visitors than I expected, but I have made more posts than I ever imagined. It certainly beats the school newspaper I started in high school called "Se dice..." (People say...), a weekly rag which was banned by the school authorities after only three weeks of very succesful printing.

Obviously I thank you all for your attention and participation.

While it is not easy writing this regularly, I have to say that the satisfaction of having posted on topics like the Chascon (Chavez/Tascon) list/database and the referendum studies on a timely manner, has been sufficient compensation for my effort.

Perhaps the thrill of writing a blog like this can be best summarized by something that happened last night.Two nights ago I posted part II of the recall studies by Delfino, Salas and Medina and was particularly taken by the results of the regional election in October 2004. To me, seeing that data was the strongest and most compelling proof that may be understood by anyone that the results of the 2004 recall referendum were fabricated by the CNE. Then, I began exchanging emails with a good friend on how strange those results were and amieres in the comments pointed out a single case that was truly amazing. In his own words:

"How about this one example: Escuela Raul Leoni, Parroquia Santa Apolonia, Municipio La Ceiba, Estado Trujillo. Signatures=762, Referendum 2004=616/938 (40%/60%); Regionals 2004=1247/530 (70%/30%); Presidentials 1998=689/318 (68%/32%); Presidentials 2000=597/466 (56%/44%) In this center they have been pro opposition in 1998(68%), 2000(56%) but amazingly in August 2004(40%) the completely flipped and in Octber 2004(70%) they flipped again and became the most pro opposition they have ever been!!!

Think about it. At this voting machine the opposition has always had more than 56% of the vote, but miracolously, in the recall vote, the opposition only got 40% of the vote in the form of 616 Si (Yes) votes and then, as abstentrion went up and the opposition was demolarized, twice as many people came out in the October 2004 regional elections to vote, given the opposition 70% of the vote in the form of 1247 votes for it!

I asked the same reader if he could check in how many voting machines the number of pro-opposition votes was larger than the Si (Yes) votes in the referendum and he quickly answered:

"There are 2181 cases (out 8228 centers, a full 27%) where there were more votes in the regionals for the opposition than SIs in the referendum!!! And that considering that many people didn't vote in the regionals because of the disapointment because of the Referendum result."

This is by far the clearest and most convincing proof of the fraud that took place at the recall referendum. It does not require mathematical knowledge to understand how implausible it would be that a demoralized opposition, with abstention increasing from 30% to 60%, would increase the absolute number of votes in 27% of the voting machines. Take that Carter Center and Jorge Rodriguez! Dare to explain it!Or even try!

I did not require this to believe that there was fraud, the matehmatical studies for me were convicing enough. But this information should be useful in convincing many that still think there was no fraud on that fateful August day.

In contrast to these fake numbers, and we don't even know how many of those there were in the recall referendum, my visitors are all real and they seem to like coming here searching for the truth and helping in finding the truth. That in itslef is satisfaction enough for all of the work that goes into writing this.

9:26:33 PM    comment []



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Last update: 4/2/2007; 10:54:29 PM.
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