Monday, February 20, 2006

Calling Hugo Chavez’ bluff or The man who wants to be King Yesterday, President Hugo Chavez, using the perverse logic that has characterized him during the last seven years, proposed that if the opposition refuses to participate in the December Presidential elections because “conditions are not adequate”, then he would hold a referendum to allow him to be a candidate in 2013 (The Constitution only allows two six year terms) and “people could decide I should stay as President until 2031”. This would essentially fulfill Chavez' autocratic ambition of perpetuating himself in power. This is a clear example of the type of circular logic Chavez uses regularly: Conditions for elections have been quite negative for the opposition as the Government has controlled and absolutely controls the Electoral Board as well as the conditions for all electoral processes. In the last four elections, the Chávez-controlled Electoral Board has refused to manually count all the ballots at every single instance and “graciously” allowed for an audit of 47% of the ballot boxes in the December Parliamentary elections. But the “audit” was not live, but rather votes were tallied manually and the Electoral Board had promised to reveal the results of the audit five weeks after the election. It has now been twelve weeks and we have yet to see the final results of the election, let alone that of the audits. So much for spending US$ 200 million in “the most perfect automatic voting system in the world”. The opposition withdrew from that election when it was discovered a week before it was to take place that it was possible to identify who casted each vote, despite denials in the last four electoral processes that this was even remotely possible. Thus, Chavez threatens to hold a referendum if electoral conditions are not agreeable to the opposition that would perpetuate him in power a la Fidel Castro. Thus, it is to his advantage not provide adequate conditions, which he absolutely controls, because he can then get his wish of becoming King or Emperor of Venezuela, which has always been his dream. There is one problem though with this strategy, which to me clearly indicates this is nothing but a bluff: According to article 71-74 of the Venezuelan Constitution, 40% of registered voters would have to vote in favor of such a referendum if it were a law or he would require a majority iof at least 25% of the people showing up. Given the 70% plus abstention of the last three electoral processes, it is an extremely dangerous and risky strategy for the President Chavez. Not only he risks not getting the required 40% or majority, but this would be one vote where opposition forces would be highly motivated to attend, while the same can not be said of his own supporters, who are growing increasingly frustrated with the Government's incompetence and lack of accomplishments. Thus, if I were an opposition candidate today I would be challenging the man who wants to be King to actually go ahead and do it. But I would add one element to the challenge: But if you lose, you would withdraw your candidacy from the December Presidential election too. It would should how weak Chavez’ hand is and call his bluff. 11:30:23 AM    comment []

Film report: The List, a documentary on the Tascon list and the discrimination it created Yesterday I went to the presentation of the documentary “La Lista: Un pueblo Bajo Sospecha” (The list: A people under suspicion”) sponsored by Ciudadania Activa, an ONG focused on defending people’s human rights, particularly against discrimination. The documentary tells the story of the Tascon list and its successor, the Maisanta database, and how the Government used the first to discriminate and fire civil servants and the second one to control its own supporters. To do this, the documentary tells the story of the origin of the list, starting from the introduction of the recall referendum into the new Constitution by Chavez, through the three requests for a recall vote by the opposition. It reminds everyone, those that lived through it and those that did not, the details of how the first two requests were denied on technicalities and how the third was blocked by having the Electoral Board create new rules after the signatures had been gathered and increase the reasons for rejection for a signature from 8 to 39. This allowed 45 out of every 100 signatures to be rejected, but a new process, the “reparo” was held and people actually went and ratified that their signatures were approved and the recall referendum was held. In my opinion, the documentary is very well done, combining clips from the news, from Chavez’ many speeches and his Sunday program Alo Presidente, with interviews and testimonials with politicians and those that were directly affected by the use of the list. I particularly liked the clip which shows Chavez in his more “democratic” days talking about the recall being introduced in the Constitution and saying:” If in three years you don’t think I am doing a good, job you can get rid of me”, but then, later, when the recall becomes a possibility, he actually says:” Even if they get 90% of the vote in the recall referendum, I am not resigning” It also documents well how the Tascon list was not an accident but a very well planned program to discriminate and repress. First you see Chavez saying (which is repeated throughout the film): “Those that sign against Chavez, their names will be left there registered for history, because they will have to put their first names, their last names, their signature, their ID number and their fingerprint” Then you see Chavez saying that he signed the paper requesting a copy of every single petition and the corresponding signatures from the Electoral Board and asks Deputy Luis Tascon, who was present that day on his program, how that is going. Tascon says that it’s going well and that “by the end of the week we will have all of the copies and see the true face of this fraud” (referring to the signatures, which at the time the Government claimed were fraudulent) It also shows a clip of Chavez on his Sunday program talking about the list, laughing about how it has created fear in people and telling everyone on his program to go and check it on Tascon’s webpage, actually giving out the link. Some of the testimonials are heartbreaking, because it shows people from all levels being fired for signing the petition and talking how it has affected them and changed their lives. It also shows the President of a Government institution saying that they have not use lists in any way, only to later show an actual paper list in which every single person was classified according to how much time they signed in the three petition attempts. Over 120 of them were fired by the same cynic denying anything at the beginning... It also shows the more candid Chavistas, like the Minister of Health, saying anyone that signed has to be fired and a Deputy saying that every civil servant that did not vote in December should also be fired. Finally, it shows Chavez himself saying that the list “should now be buried”, and how “it played its role in his time”, showing no regrets or remorse about the use of this discriminatory tool against the people. After that, many Government institutions joined in the condemnation of the list, but never before, proving that they have no personality of their own and no conscience and they totally depend on what their leader says or doesn’t say can be done. It is a great compilation of the history of a discriminatory process used by a fascist Government which claims to be democratic. How it has destroyed lives for political gain and never showed regret or remorse for it. How it compiled a list to discriminate the opposition and then it extended it to a database to control its own supporters. It is proof of fascism and discrimination in the XXIst. Century, under the eyes of the whole world and even the support of those that claim to defend human rights but are so fanatical that they don’t want to see the warts in the fake revolution they so admire. Everyone should buy it and see it, because it is “Prohibido Olvidar” (To forget is forbidden). It also represents another document to be shown over and over, the day this nightmare is over. It should never happen again and those that collaborated with it should one day pay for their crimes. A version in English is being worked on and should be out in a couple of months. 12:19:08 AM    comment []