Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Some positive signs out of the opposition candidates The meeting today between Presidential candidates Teodoro Petkoff, Julio Borges and the Governor of Zulia and likely candidate Manuel Rosales, give me a good opportunity to comment on the developments on the potential opposition candidates during the month that I was away. A lot of people I think have been over analyzing the subject of the possible primaries. There is very little history of primaries in Venezuela and while it is true that Hugo Chavez has the popularity and the money to win outright in the December elections, leaving cheating and such matters outside the discussion, there is still a lot of time to change things between now and December. In fact, at this same point in time in 1998, Irene Saez had 45% of the preferences of voters, while Hugo Chavez had only 10% and in 1993, Oswaldo Alvarez Paz had just won the first open primary held by a party in the country’s history, upsetting Copei’s favorite Eduardo Fernandez, giving him a commanding lead in the race. Two months later Rafael Caldera, Copei’s own founder, came back to Venezuela, announced his candidacy, was embraced by the left and an overconfident Alvarez Paz not only lost the election, but came in third, behind Caldera and Claudio Fermin. But so far, what I have seen is quite positive. Sumate comes out and proposes a primary. Petkoff announces he is a candidate and talks about specifics. Borges announces his program. Rosales suggests he is ready to jump in with all his guns. People ask who anointed Sumate to do the primary and Sumate responds that they are ready to do it only if wanted. All three of these candidates meet and agree that there is a need for a single candidate, ask the other two candidates to join them and say that the single candidate may be chosen in a primary or by whatever other method they may agree with. Thus, a positive political message is being sent, something that has not been seen in local politics in quite a long time. I can’t argue against that. Can Chavez manipulate the process? Of course he can, but some of these guys may not be charismatic, but they are politically savvy and can fight back. In fact, by agreeing on three or four topics for their own proposals, they can indirectly show the lack of accomplishments by the Chavez administration. If they can hit a cord, a lot of damage can be done to Chavez, his autocratic style and inefficient and corrupt administration. There are obviously dangers, but hey, this is not soccer or a baseball game, you have to risk something and you may be wrong in your strategy. Some may lose and some may win. The opposition candidates need to continue playing the positive card to contrast themselves to Chavez and his style. What they can not do is start blasting each other each day, wearing each other down and setting up the winner in a plate to Chavez to feast on after a single candidate is selected. So far, indications are that at least the three candidates that met today understand this quite well. I disagree with arguments such as the fact that primaries are popularity contests that select the most popular person and not necessarily the best one. Hey! That is what democracy is! Whether people vote with their hormones, their guts or their stomachs is a fact of daily democratic life and you have to live with that. How do you think we got stuck with Chavez? I also fail to see how the winner of the primary will be mince meat for Chavez. On the contrary, the victor, if in unity, should be strengthened as it typically happens in most democracies with primaries. And even before, the opposition needs to get people to get excited about going out and voting. If an equal number of people that voted in the recall against Chavze went to the primary, it could create a very touchy and tight situation for an Hugo Chavez who at this time looks overconfident that he will win Then, there is the pure democratic argument that I have made for years: Venezuela needs more democracy not less. I am still amazed that all of the major five candidates for President in 1998 were all self appointed and self annointed saviors, who ran without the benefit of any collective body larger than a few dozen friends choosing them. This was a disgrace for people who call themselves democrats and simply represented the summary of the history of Venezuela's modern democracy, something Chavez said he was going to change and included in the new Constitution but has done nothing about, like with most of his promises. In this area, he has also been more of the same, denying his own party the democratic rights that it put into the new Constitution. I also don’t buy the argument about Chavez sending his people out to change the primary result. First, I don’t think he has the machinery to pull it off, witness the parliamentary election low turnout. But I also think that by the time the event takes place, one of the candidates will have pulled a clear and irreversible lead. All I am saying is that so far events have developed in a much more positive manner than I thought possible a month ago. Moreover, the opposition candidates are receiving wide coverage. If I had to choose a candidate in terms of ability to establish a long term sensible program for the country, I would choose Petkoff, but my feeling is that it is Rosales that has the best chance at beating the autocrat. Petkoff will be an uncomfortable candidate for Chavez; Chavez can’t question his leftwing political credentials. But the Government seems more concerned about Rosales, as demonstrated by today’s cynical statement by the Prosecutor General that he will ask the Supreme Court to allow him to try Rosales for going to the Presidential Palace on April 12th. 2002, the day after Rosales expressed his clear intent to run. The fireworks have begun! 9:54:36 PM    comment []