Sunday, June 25, 2006

Things I wished I had more time to write about So many things going on, it’s hard to write about everything I would like, here are the things I would write about tomorrow, if I had the time: --The Head of the Comptrolling Committee of the National Assembly went to the Supreme Court to clarify the role of the Assembly in comptrolling how funds are used by the Government and whether they are spent according to what the Assembly approved. The Deputy said that the books handed in by Ministries and other institutions that depend on the Government were “huge useless tomes”, impossible to audit and lacking the necessary information for any sort of supervision. --In October 2004, Carlos Barboza won the race for Mayor of the Miranda municipality of Zulia state by more than 3,000 votes (with a total of 12,443). Last week, the Electoral Hall of the Venezuelan Supreme Court ruled that the backing of the losing candidate from COPEI after the election took place, giving him more than four thousand votes and thus defeating Barboza. Thus, the Court ruled, the new Mayor is the MVR candidate Tiberio Bermudez. The most interesting facts about the decision is that COPEI itself says that it never backed Bermudez before or after the election. Additionally, it is unheard of that a party can change who it backs after the decision, COPEI’s candidate was Henoc Guerere and he campaigned until the last day. Moreover, Barboza is closely aligned with Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales. --Hugo Chavez announced yesterday that General Raul Baduell will be the new Minister of Defense. Baduell was the man that brought Chavez back in April 2002. He is a strange character who believes in reincarnation and has personal ambitions. He has told his close friends in private that if Chavez can be President, he is much better qualified to occupy the position. Reportedly Chavez did not trust Baduell sufficiently to name him Minister, but he decided to go for him to strike a balance within the so called Chavismo sin Chavez movement and the military. --The much ballyhooed contract between Petroecuador and Venezuela was suspended due to imprecisions. --Chavez promised to build a gas pipeline to Panama, despite the fact that experts claim Venezuela does not even have enough natural gas to send through the Transamazonic pipeline. --Chavez said that he will initiate “monetary reform” and change the currency to make it smaller. The only questions are whether it will still be called the Bolivar or the Bolivariano and whether he will remove three zeroes or divide by 500. Dividing by 500 would make the Bolivar 4.30 to the US dollar, exactly the same it was in the “glory” days of Venezuelans traveling abroad to shop, because everything ta’barato (it’s cheap) --The Government was ready to issue US$ 3.5 billion in debt under PDVSA, thinking that it would be cheaper for that company to issue debt than for the Government to do it. However, they apparently did not take into account that the company has yet to file its 2004 financials (despite announcements that it “was” done last week and has no plans to make any future filings. In fact, this week, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the four oil partnerships that produce heavy oil to a notch below Venezuela’s sovereign bonds. The reason? Increased royalties, increase taxes and, get this, the risk that PDVSA may want to control and take over a majority stake of the projects. In the end, it will likely be a PDVSA issue with a sovereign-like coupon, not what the Government had planned. --Four people drove straight through the fallen viaduct in a car and died. Here is one tragedy you can't blame on the Government, these guys must have been really loaded! --Last week Bill Gates announced he would quit Microsoft to devote himself full time to his foundation, today Warren Buffet, the world's richest man, announced that he will give 85% of his money to charity with the largest share going to Gates' foundation, which will go from the best endowed foundation in the world to the best endowed foundation in the world. I must say, it is a great way to spend their money and the world has never seen anything ever in the scale of what these guys are doing. Hats off to both of them! 7:48:23 PM    comment []

Daniel sends a letter on the subversive value of futbol Daniel from Venezuelan News and Views contributes this letter to my blog in reply to my letter on Friday, explaining how the futbol watching may even be subversive: Dear Miguel I read your great letter of last Friday . I think you are quite right in asking all of these soccer, football, futbol fans to consider giving from their time at least the duration of one of these games they watched to the cause of democracy. I could not be more in agreement with you. However I think there is something that you missed in the whole phenomenon. You do point rightly that in Caracas and the main cities of Venezuela there is almost no eatery that do not display a TV set during game time, with dozens of people clustering around. We never see that, even during a "World Series" featuring some Venezuelan pitcher. I know you cannot quite make sense of it as you are a devoted Red Sox fans. You even write "[soccer] is not as much of an integral part of our heritage". And that is why I think you missed a critical point. Of course, I am not writing to justify my own distraction with the World Cup, to the point of opening a temporary blog dedicated to it . You know very well the uncounted hours I have spent "quemandome las pestañas" describing all the abuses, arrogance and incompetence of the undemocratic regime we live under. But where you miss the point is the almost rage with which we are enjoying this World Cup. At least those of us who decided to do so: it is almost an act of rebellion. Last World Cup was stolen from me. Not only because the time difference with Korea and Japan was settled for the European TV market benefit, but because it was 2002 and we were trying to overcome the consequences of the April 2002 events. The Cup was stolen from us by Chavez and his unwillingness to settle the issues raised in 2002. He kept the country askance on whether a truth commission would be installed, on whether a democratic dialogue will be attempted to reconcile the country. Nothing was done, the tensions were fawned and we ended up in a painful strike and even more painful Recall Election process. Who could care then about a distant World Cup? Since then Chavez has always wanted to steal all attention to him, be it his social programs (many a failure but successes in that they keep Chavez at the center), be it his foreign ambitions and his forgetfulness and obvious boredom as to Venezuelan matters. Thus, in this electoral campaign as Chaves is trying to tighten the yoke around the opposition neck, he is again trying to steal the World Cup from us, from me. And I will not let him get away with it, and we will not let him get away with it. In fact we are succeeding as Chavez has had to cancel two Alo Presidente, has had to postpone the cadena on the Carabobo parade. Almost with cruelty we are letting know that his antics are less interesting than a Tunisia Saudi Arabia game. But it goes even further: football is allergic to authoritarian regimes, futbol is perhaps the most democratic sports that exists. And not because you can play it barefoot with a tin can and two sticks as a gate. No, Futbol is a unique combination of individual brilliance, daring initiative, disinterested team work and art. No Eastern block country could ever manage to control this team sport the way it control the other ones at one point or another. Even Cuba can control baseball but is unable to play football. Such regimes frown on the values that drive football, the most anti ideological game that exists. I believe that there is a reason why Chavez likes baseball so much, the control and "protagonismo" one can reach there. Pele would have never been Pele without Brazil and Brazil would have not been Brazil without Pele. When Chavez yesterday said that today was an important day in futbol because Ecuador played he did not realize how much of a provincial ignoramus in soccer he revealed himself to be. Thus I hope you can forgive us while we enjoy futbol, perhaps there is more subversion to it than what you might think. 4:31:24 PM    comment []

Mision Matusalen by amieres (Mission Methuselah) One of our readers, amieres, has been analyzing the Electoral Registry (REP) and found numerous interesting things that should be made public in detail. I invited him to write a post on it and he was gracious enough to accept my invitation and here is the post with all the details. This goes right to the heart of the question why the CNE does not want a good audit of the REP made, it would show all of these inconsistencies. Only today El Nacional showed how there are more people above the age of 45 registered to vote that the National Institute for Statistics (INE) says there exist in that age group. This incredible inconsistency is why the three universities rejected by the CNE to perform the audit wanted a wider audit that would include demographics. Now wonder the CNE does not want this! Mision Matusalen by amieres (Mission Methuselah by amieres) First some background In March 2004 when the Presidential Recall Referendum (RR) process was in its way the Electoral Registry (RE) had 12,394,109 voters. In a multi-tiered campaign that Chavez called "Batalla de Santa Ines" a big push was made to add new voters to the RE. That's how the Misiones were created: Mision Robinson, Mision Ribas, Mision Vuelvan Caras, Mision Barrio Adentro, Mercal, Mision Milagro, Mision Identidad, Mision Zamora, etc. http://www.gobiernoenlinea.ve/miscelaneas/misiones.html. A variety of public assistance efforts offering anything from food, health care, education, land, temporary jobs and of course money. Particularly Mision Identidad offered foreigners living in Venezuela a fast-track nationalization, no questions asked, as long as they showed support for Chavez. Everyone that benefited from the ‘misiones’ was registered in the Maisanta database and if they were not already part of the RE they were immediately entered in a joint effort between the CNE and the ONI-DEX (the National Identification Office). By July 2004 the RE had grown to 14,037,900 an incredible 1,643,791 new voters or 13% in just 4 months. In August 15th, 2004 Chavez won a widely denounced Referendum with 60%-40% advantage that in the exit polls showed as 40%-60% against him. The Lists The Maisanta list, a by-product of the RR, was created by the chavistas by merging the infamous Tascon list with the RE of March 2004 and complementing it with the information from the Misiones and the Reparos. It is a tool that serves the double purpose of identifying, pressuring and discriminating against those that opposed Chavez but also to identify, keep track and pressure those that have benefited from the Misiones. Last year, Maisanta was leaked into the public and it was being sold by street vendors for Bs 15000 (about 8 dollars). It quickly found its way into the internet where it can be downloaded. Following the lead of Adolfo Fabregat I also downloaded the official RE of January 2006 from the CNE website (http://www.cne.gov.ve/int_generacion_re/html/index.html) and combined it with the Maisanta list. That allowed me to compare the changes in the RE between March 2004 and January 2006. By January 2006 the REP had grown to 14,849,127 adding 811,227 more since August 2004. The first thing to note, is that the RE is full of irregularities, practically everywhere you look you can find something wrong with it. Several of the discrepancies have already been denounced: - The amazing Gonzalez family. - The one letter names and last names. - The duplicate entries. - The extraordinaire longevity of Venezuelans Partly, I wanted to verify these findings myself, which I did and so and now I can attest to their veracity and give you specific instances of those cases. The Analysis Based on the information reported in the TV and newspapers my general belief was that most new entries to the RE would be from foreigners hastily nationalized, youth that recently have reached the voting age of 18th and to a much lesser degree of people that had never voted previously but benefited from the ‘Misiones’. Thus my expectation was to find only a few new entries with old identity card numbers, which are lower. By using a query that would bring only the new entries that were not present in the 2004 RE the first surprise came when I found so many new entries that had low Identity card numbers. I expected most new entries to have new ID numbers around the 20,000,000 figure. But there were thousands with very low numbers, and I mean very, very low as low as 10. Could it be that so many people had never bothered to vote until now? Could all of them be beneficiaries of the Misiones? Here is a sample of new voters with low id numbers that I found: Nac. Id Name Voting Center Date of Birth Age (2006) V 10 RIERA FORTIQUE GREGORIO JOSE 190502001 1886/12/08 120 V 14 PIMENTEL PARILLI ENRIQUE 131601051 1894/07/24 112 V 37 ESTEVA RIOS LINO GUILLERMO 10101008 1912/09/23 94 V 56 CONTRERAS UNDA FELIPE 30601015 1911/11/11 95 V 66 SUAREZ MANTILLA HERNAN 131901011 1916/07/25 90 V 88 CA-IZALES VILLEGAS DARIO EDECIO 130102002 1918/02/18 88 V 111 HERNANDEZ GARCIA RENE 191502001 1895/04/28 111 V 117 GONZALEZ PADILLA ELOY GUILLERMO 101501001 1873/06/25 133 V 123 HERNANDEZ GUTIERREZ MELECIO 71201016 1872/02/12 134 V 126 LUCIANI LOERO ROBERTO 21401001 1895/02/14 111 V 134 MARCANO BETANCOURT IGNACIO 70101006 1879/11/27 127 V 163 PEREZ ALCANTARA FRANCISCO 120201002 1879/03/07 127 V 167 BARRIENTOS SANTIAGO 240111010 1909/05/23 97 V 176 MERCADO RAMOS RAQUEL DE STURIK 190701006 1926/04/24 80 V 196 BOUQUET HIDALGO JOSE ESTANISLAO 211803020 1906/10/12 100 V 222 DELIMA DELIMA ANTONIO JOSE 160804003 1906/12/15 100 V 223 ARMADA RODRIGUEZ ANTONIO 190506005 1898/04/08 108 V 231 MADRID ROJAS ALFREDO 180501001 1883/02/14 123 V 552 MARTINEZ OQUENDO RUBEN 21702002 1907/04/20 99 V 596 GIFFONI CASTILLO FRANCISCO 130501011 1903/07/15 103 V 667 COBOS JUAN BAUTISTA 210605003 1903/08/29 103 V 731 LANDER LUGO PEDRO TOMAS 190706001 1882/02/14 124 V 1010 SCANNONE LAPADULA ANTONIO 201201010 1876/09/06 130 V 1223 PERNIA CASIQUE NARCISO 240101012 1891/10/29 115 V 1263 CORDERO SUTIL OSCAR 21401006 1895/05/17 111 V 1270 CARRASCO PEDRO 210901009 1883/05/19 123 V 1290 LEON ARELLANO BUSTAMANTE ANTONIO JOSE 70301007 1908/09/13 98 V 1359 MATHEUS FUENMAYOR FRANCISCO JOSE 130901111 1914/09/22 92 V 1467 RODRIGUEZ GUEVARA OSCAR 190303004 1912/06/11 94 V 1474 RIVAS SU-E HIPOLITA 50210005 1890/08/22 116 V 1486 ELIAS PEREZ FRANCISCO 51001002 1924/11/02 82 V 1535 FLORES HERNANDEZ ANTONIO 160301037 1900/08/24 106 V 1665 LANDAETA CARRILLO DANIEL 60109004 1900/07/21 106 V 1713 CARBONELL RAMOS NESTOR 131001010 1904/10/20 102 V 1765 FOMBONA PACHANO JACINTO 51102002 1901/05/19 105 V 2080 DIAZ ALONZO AURELIANO 130901096 1898/06/16 108 V 3245 MAIZO ACISCLO 150101006 1967/11/17 39 V 3333 HENRIQUEZ CUBILLAN LUIS 211301001 1914/08/26 92 V 3407 LANDA MORALES CARLOS ALBERTO 21401006 1901/09/16 105 V 3520 GARCIA SUCRE LUIS ENRIQUE 131101032 1919/08/28 87 V 4343 CASTILLO VILLASMIL RAFAEL ANGEL 10112003 1902/10/24 104 V 4364 STEINER STEINER ESTEBAN RODOLFO 30601013 1906/12/09 100 V 4444 DELFINO WILCKELMANN ALFREDO ELIAS 41701011 1891/07/20 115 V 5559 NOVELLINO GARRIDO ITALO 211902002 1916/04/18 90 V 6999 GARCIA DELEPIANI PEDRO JOSE 131501004 1904/02/22 102 V 9084 ALVARADO JUAN 121602001 1892/05/27 114 V 10000 VARGAS CARDENAS MARIO RICARDO 210704005 1913/05/29 93 V 10104 GOMEZ FIGUERA ANIBAL 120405001 1912/03/14 94 V 10168 LOPEZ FRANCISCO 180805002 1900/10/10 106 V 10467 ARISTEIGUIETA TORRES FELIPE 170903016 1885/05/01 121 But the really big surprise came when I noted the ages. It had already been reported that there were many entries in the RE of people older than 100 years old. Those can easily be attributed to a carelessly maintained database where deceased were not removed appropriately. But this is different, this are NEW ENTRIES! People who were not registered to vote before 2004! Here is a sample of the 50 oldest NEW voters. Nac. Id Name Voting Center Date of Birth Age (2006) V 1212277 ESPINOZA PEDRO JUAN 140706020 1870/06/29 136 V 22598 VARGAS JOAQUIN 80201012 1870/08/16 136 V 18728 ANDRADE SEGUNDO 130401023 1870/05/13 136 V 11291 SILVA BLANCO JUAN BAUTISTA 211803020 1870/01/30 136 V 1572011 SANDOVAL BARRIENTOS JOSE ANTONIO 211001001 1872/04/21 134 V 47594 CASANOVA DE LOSSADA MARIA ANTONIA 210513015 1872/01/03 134 V 22645 MEZA MEZA JOSE DE JESUS 180803009 1872/03/19 134 V 13048 DURAN CHACON BENIGNO 110205006 1872/02/13 134 V 123 HERNANDEZ GUTIERREZ MELECIO 71201016 1872/02/12 134 V 11892786 DOMINGUEZ GUERRERO GLORIA BENITA 211401010 1873/07/18 133 V 18204 LAREYAH DE CASES CADEN 140402005 1873/04/18 133 V 18016 MANZANILLA RIVAS MANUEL MARIA 30101002 1873/09/07 133 V 17778 JIMENEZ HERNANDEZ TIBURCIO 71401011 1873/03/22 133 V 117 GONZALEZ PADILLA ELOY GUILLERMO 101501001 1873/06/25 133 V 20440996 OLIVERO OLIVERO EDICSO SEGUNDO 211805009 1874/03/03 132 V 22120 MONTEVERDE MAC-CLONG EDUARDO 211805013 1874/06/17 132 V 1012790 ESPINOZA ABREU EDUVINO 191301004 1875/10/17 131 V 941366 MARTINEZ DE HERNANDEZ MARIA GUILLERMINA ELO 240108004 1875/06/25 131 V 22640 GONZALEZ PEREZ JESUS MARIA 180804005 1875/02/18 131 V 18741 SENIOR LOPEZ HENRIQUEZ JACOBO ISAAC 210513001 1875/09/14 131 V 209582 LOPEZ RODRIGUEZ ANA 20901006 1876/10/27 130 V 1010 SCANNONE LAPADULA ANTONIO 201201010 1876/09/06 130 V 1371898 RIERA ORTEGA RAMONA 212001005 1877/01/25 129 V 318567 ORAMAS DELGADO PABLO 10104025 1877/06/18 129 V 174163 CARRERO MARIA SACRAMENTO 160601034 1877/09/06 129 V 195371 VALERO BAEZ VICTOR 10107020 1878/12/23 128 V 174340 SALAZAR CACERES CONCEPCION 160801018 1878/06/06 128 V 18374 PEREZ DE RODRIGUEZ ISABEL 210303009 1878/11/08 128 V 15954 VASQUEZ MELENDEZ RENATO 220104001 1878/09/20 128 V 14137 ANDERSON GARCIA MANUEL 211805023 1878/01/13 128 V 14103036 QUINTERO CAMACHO YIRELYS YELITZA 70801008 1879/07/19 127 V 14015657 DIAZ RAMOS YSMERYS DEL VALLE 10111013 1879/04/04 127 V 12384486 ROYER ESPINOZA ROMA MICHELE 40107014 1879/06/10 127 V 11552731 MEDINA CARVAJAL DAYDEE MILAGROS 130901059 1879/12/15 127 V 10847209 ZAMBRANO HERNANDEZ HUMBERTO GREGORIO 110202023 1879/03/24 127 V 10727961 BOZA QUEVEDO FELIDICTA MARGOT 160301001 1879/07/09 127 V 10560837 ARIAS SELENNE ISABEL 50207006 1879/07/18 127 V 1004406 BRICE-O PEREZ JOSE IGNACIO 230101002 1879/11/06 127 V 725563 GONZALEZ BARTOLO 10118003 1879/08/10 127 V 23232 SEMAH VALENCIA LOPEZ PE-A JULIA DELIA 10101010 1879/01/03 127 V 18183 VELASQUEZ BORRA MATIAS 130401021 1879/02/24 127 V 163 PEREZ ALCANTARA FRANCISCO 120201002 1879/03/07 127 V 134 MARCANO BETANCOURT IGNACIO 70101006 1879/11/27 127 V 24369789 FERNANDEZ MONTI MINERVA 210203002 1880/11/02 126 V 21087130 CASTILLO PEREZ NELSON 220103001 1880/07/06 126 V 19181123 QUEIPO SALAS SONIA DEL CARMEN 80101004 1880/08/13 126 V 19108503 PIEDRAHITA VIVEROS ELISA 70203013 1880/02/02 126 V 14230500 SOTO GALINDEZ YAQUELIN ROSMARY 40108007 1880/07/14 126 V 14015246 MARIN PEREZ YESENIA CAROLINA 110203003 1880/05/17 126 V 11092813 DELGADO FELIX ANTONIO 40601004 1880/10/06 126 What does it mean? Some of the impossibly old ages could be attributed to typographical errors while registering new voters due to the sloppy and rushed process of the Mision Identidad (like in the case of FERNANDEZ MONTI MINERVA CI: V-24,369,789 DOB 1879/11/27) But that explanation falls short when considering someone with ID numbers V-10 or V-14 or V-117 or V-123. How did their information find its way into the RE. They didn’t register themselves, we know that much. That information could only have come from the ONI-DEX, the government agency in charge of issuing the Identity cards and could only have been entered into the RE by someone in the CNE as they are the sole custodians of that database. This is incontrovertible proof that the RE was tampered by the CNE. How important is it? How much damage can a couple of thousand deceased cause? The fact is that we don’t know how many people were added fraudulently into the database. What made it obvious in this case is their impossibly old ages, but there could be hundreds of thousands more for all we know. Look at the distribution of new voters based on their ages (only Venezuelans): Less than 20 143,122 between 20 and 29 1,762,709 between 30 and 39 525,913 between 40 and 49 140,263 between 50 and 59 78,957 between 60 and 69 32,600 between 70 and 79 11,284 between 80 and 89 2,341 between 90 and 99 461 between 100 and 109 619 between 110 and 119 175 between 120 and 129 163 between 130 and 139 22 Total 2,698,629 And based on their ID card numbers (only Venezuelans): less than 1,000,000 983 between 1,000,000 and 1,999,999 1,191 between 2,000,000 and 2,999,999 1,298 between 3,000,000 and 3,999,999 1,312 between 4,000,000 and 4,999,999 1,557 between 5,000,000 and 5,999,999 3,274 between 6,000,000 and 6,999,999 12,654 between 7,000,000 and 7,999,999 12,968 between 8,000,000 and 8,999,999 14,625 between 9,000,000 and 9,999,999 23,455 between 10,000,000 and 10,999,999 50,395 between 11,000,000 and 11,999,999 83,752 between 12,000,000 and 12,999,999 126,160 between 13,000,000 and 13,999,999 157,665 between 14,000,000 and 14,999,999 194,420 between 15,000,000 and 15,999,999 290,386 between 16,000,000 and 16,999,999 395,826 between 17,000,000 and 17,999,999 462,864 between 18,000,000 and 18,999,999 301,823 between 19,000,000 and 19,999,999 117,330 between 20,000,000 and 20,999,999 46,998 between 21,000,000 and 21,999,999 38,314 between 22,000,000 and 22,999,999 213,110 between 23,000,000 and 23,999,999 80,901 between 24,000,000 and 24,999,999 59,511 between 25,000,000 and 25,999,999 5,857 On the other hand if they added deceased people, what would stop them from adding non-existent people with new ID card numbers? Remember Mision Identidad? That may explain why the CNE doesn’t want to release the voters addresses, virtual voters simply don’t have real addresses.But why do it? In 2004 Chavez started the ‘Misiones’ and he desperately needed to show enough new voters to be able to swing the result. My guess is they didn’t get as many new voters as he needed, so they started creating new ones. The same seems to be happening now when Chavez boasts about winning the December elections with 10,000,000 votes, which is a ridiculous figure. Considering what he allegedly got in the RR after all the tricks and manipulations. By adding their own virtual voters they can ensure a minimum of votes whenever they need them as long as the ballots are not counted. Also, by inflating the RE the CNE can make any result hard to audit because anything that falls outside the historical pattern can always be argued saying that is because of all the new voters that are in favor of Chavez. This makes it so much clearer why the CNE doesn’t want a thorough audit of the RE. This is really incriminating evidence. If this much can be found by a few individuals working in their free time, just imagine what a team of dedicated specialists may find. 1:27:04 PM    comment []