Monday, September 11, 2006

Establishing limits on the size of crowds in Avenida Bolivar Everytime there is a rally in Avenida Bolivar, we hear how many hundreds of thousand people were there. Let’s put an end to vague numbers, let’s calculate how many buses it takes to fill Avenida Bolivar or how many people can be packed there. As a side result, we can put limits on last Saturday’s Chavista rally. Using Google Earth, I determined the length of Avenida Bolivar to be 1,255 meters. To determine this number, I used the “ruler” tool in Google Earth as shown in the image below by the yellow line This probably overestimates the size of the crowd as a stage is setup for those addressing the crowd, which takes up some 20-40 meters depending on the type of stage used. After that, I used the same tool to measure the width of Avenida Bolivar as shown here: This came out to be 27.5 meters. Thus, all of Avenida Bolivar has 34,512 squared meters. The question is then, how many people you can get into a square meter. This is usually the debatable point when estimating crowds. A very desnsely packed crowd has 6 people per squared meter. A loosely packed crowd where people are at a comfortable distance from each other has 1.0 person per square meter. Freites in Venezuela has counted 2 people per square meter in rallies and 1.5 in recent marches, but the correct technique is to actually take an aerial picture and count. But of course, flybys are not allowed during rallies and marches by the Government. We tested this at work today and six people per square meter is certainly invasive and extremely difficult to put up with for more than a few minutes. We decided that 1.5 to 2.0 would be a more adequate number. Note what this says, Avenida Bolivar, jam packed cuold hold no more 207,000 people, so forget all those presidctions fo 300,000 or even 1.5 million like what was made for last Saturday. Now, a more reasonable number if the whole avenue is filled and not too packed would be 69,000 people. I then measured the length of Avenida Bolivar as filled by last Saturday’s march in Google Earth: This came out to 851 meters in length, which gave an area of 23,400 squared meters. Now, from the traffic cameras pictures, we know that the density was low in a large part of the area, so that a density fo 2 would be too high and one probably too low, so that 1.5 seems fair and that is equivalent to some 35,000-36,000 people. From my earlier collage of Chavista buses, we can say there are 12 windows per bus, times four across it is about 48 people, 50 with the last row in each bus, so that 720 buses would be sufficient if nobody from Caracas goes. Just for completeness, here is an analysis which correlates the same pictures I used directly with the traffic pictures Just keep in mind this same analysis would apply to any static rally on Avenida Bolivar, whether pro or against Chavez, so there has to be consistency in future discussions. (While I don't have equivalent pictures of San Cristobal, I am told they filled 11 blocks of Ave. Bolivar for Rosales' rally on Saturday, which is 18 meters wide. Eleven blocks is 880 meters, thus the length was comaprable but it was not as wide. However, San Cristobal is not Caracas. In the absence of pictures I will not say much more) 10:49:01 PM    comment []

Fascist is, Fascist does Somehow, outright fascism is now all right with Chavistas, no more doublespeak, no more gray areas, to wit: --Libertador Mayor Bernal says the workers in his office will not be pressured into voting for Chavez. Why? Let’s hear his own words: “These actions will be unnecessary because the workers of the Mayors office of Libertador are committed in a personal way with the revolutionary process, we all know of the election there was at the referendum, in which side each of us is located, that was public and evident. Don’t you remember that famous list that we decided to bury? Can fascist, illegal and discriminatory behavior be clearer than this? But there was more… --Besides the ability to be reelected forever, Hugo Chavez announces that he does not want multiple ideas; he wants a single party, a unified party, a unique party. (This was quickly accepted by his party and the Communist party is ready to sacrifice itself) "A single party to represent the Republic! Let’s turn Venezuela into an impregnable fortress, nobody or nothing should be able to come here and alter the course of the revolution" I wonder what all the other parties that still support Chavez think of this narrow thinking and a way for Chavez to control and manipulate them. I guess from now on, they will have to be absolutely servile to the autocrat. No dissention, no competition, no discussion. Do I hear death to democracy and long live fascism from the crowd? Heil Hugo or Heil Huguito? Whatever happened to “sovereignty resides on the people”? Will it now be “sovereignty resides on the party”? --The Secretary General of Accion Democratica, Henry Ramos Allup, a politician I do not like very much, has been a leader of the abstention movement, saying that conditions are not conducive to a fair election. In fact, he is slowly becoming isolated because of this position after the Rosales candidacy has basically unified the opposition. Last week the General Prosecutor’s office served Ramos Allup with a notice to go and testify in a “case”. Today he found out that he is being investigated for “defending” a crime. You see Ramos Allup defended the escape from jail by union leader Carlos Ortega, arguing that Ortega could not get a fair trial in Venezuela, because the judicial system is controlled by Chavismo. Thus anyone that expresses dissent can be jailed in Venezuela, you could jail half of Venezuela, including the Chavistas that defend the purchase of Argentinean bonds that are simply the most corrupt racket in the country’ history or mandatory loans by commercial banks, that are enriching many Chavistas, after all, they are defending the existence of “crimes” In the end, this is simply a fascist way to get rid of your political enemies, Ramos Allup simply has to get in line behind Uson, General Martinez, Ortega, 18,000 oil workers, the victims of Tascon’s list, Sumate leaders, Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo Lopez, Brewer Carias and still counting… Anyone reading this, who thinks he or she is a democrat, and still defends this fascist Government should have their brain examined… 8:09:39 PM    comment []