Sunday, October 22, 2006

We still have time by Laureano Marquez And I can’t help but translate last Friday’s hilariously depressing article by Laureano Marquez in Tal Cual and combine it with today's Weil cartoon: We still have time by Laureano Marquez in Tal Cual That position in the Security Council is of interest to all of us, pro-Government or opposition. One of the things that may contribute in Venezuela changing, is that nobody has any doubts about where we stand and what we are. For that, an important position at the UN is vital. There is a lot that can be done there for the cause. That is why I see no reason for dismay and crybabies, given that we have electoral methods and strategies which have been sufficiently proven locally. Venezuela still has time to win if it is capable, in the four days left before the vote is resumed, to put in practice the same procedures that have worked so well at home. Time is running out and what needs to be done is there to be seen: ---Install Smartmatic voting machines for the next round of the vote ---Place fingerprint capturing machines at the entrance to where the vote is taking place and promote lines of 12 or more hours so that the ambassadors get bored to death and leave the shit like that and don’t vote ---Place the Bolivarian circles of New York at the gates of the UN so that they insult and throw rocks at any ambassador that is suspected of voting against us. Little by little their morals will be undermined up to the point that they will resign. ---Simultaneously, threaten the people at CNN so they do not make transmissions. Sabotage their communications and kidnap their microwave transmitters. --- At this point (second day of the suspension), Tascon would be installed with his laptop in the Great Apple, with his list perfectly elaborated with all of the officials that should be fired and their history of voting in similar previous events. ---On the diplomatic front, Guatemala and their candidate have to be disqualified and accused of bribing other countries, of buying votes and of blocking the vote. That is, of what we ourselves are doing. ---At the same time, start a plan to distribute money and bring a briefcase full of cash, before each round of voting. ---If done right, even the US will end up voting for us. Money kills anything as is clearly demonstrated by local politics. ---When the moment to count the votes arrives, the entrance to the tantalization room should be restricted and the manual counting of the ballots should be blocked. ---The results will be made known around four in the morning, when Carter can barely stay awake If this simple advice is followed, in four days the destiny of the world will be in our hands and then they will know what we are capable of… Ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja... ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja, ja! 10:48:49 PM    comment []

El Caminante: Thank you President Chavez for these dignified homes Bruni sends the link to this excellemt post in "El Caminante's blog" which I had to translate because it represents so well in very graphic form the lies and self delusions of the revolution. On the left, you have a picture of a barrio that has been above the La Planicie tunnels in the West of Caracas for decades (The tunnels were built by Luis Herrera who was President from 1978 to 1993 and the barrio was already there even before they were built). All that has changed in those barrios is that the houses "improve" in the sense that a cardboard wall gets improved to brick or the houses get painted or an additional floor is added, but teh barrios have no services other than electricity (privately provided)) In fact, I remember that one Government, maybe Lusinchi's, painted them all white, like his party's color, to make it look better. Well, that seems to be the only change, execpt that now they have been painted in various colors. On the right, there is a close up of the barrio and you can see that the greenish house is made of cardboard and that these homes are nothing to be proud of. Well, the sign says "Thank you President Chavez for these dignified homes". I guess I don't have to say much more. This is simply another delusion and rip off by the revolution. Below the pictures the translation of Fernando's post in "El Caminante" "Thank you President Chavez for these dignified homes"....yes, that is what the banner placed in front of those shacks retouched with paint says, seeing those images a few questions come to my mind. How far does the shamelessness of the Government reach? Does the Government consider that painting some shacks makes them dignified homes? Does the Government think that the majority of us Venezuelans are idiots? And I say the majority because without any doubt there are some Chavistas that think that this is an example of a dignified home, there surely exist people who are waiting for the Government to half paint their shack to go running and give Chavez thanks for this incalculable show of love, there exists in this country people who have spent 8 years living in misery and seeing how the Governments screws them even more into that misery, they care very little, they are the ones that completely swallow the speech that to be rich is bad and Bush is the devil. They are the people who deny themsleves progress, whose social resentment makes them wish that the son of the doctor becomes a sweeper. Although it is true that the fault of capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth, the virtue of regimes like that of Fidel or Chavez is the egalitarian distribution of misery. 9:33:57 PM    comment []

Numeric Sunday: Looking at some revolutionary numbers Let's have a look at some of the corruption and deceit in the revolution, but tonight in a quantitative manner: ----The Venezuelan Government buys Argentinean bonds from that Government and sells them to local banks and financial institutions at an “implied” exchange rate of Bs. 2350. The Bonds are sold and those dollars are sold in the parallel swap market. Who gets the bonds? Those institutions friendly to the Government who are willing to pay the intermediary for the Government part of the gain. In order to please larger and more serious banks, about 20% is given without any commission as long as those more “serious” banks sell the bonds to a final client. Thus, of the US$ 3.5 billion about 700 million were sold without a commission, leaving US$ 2.8 billion. Since the average price of the parallel market has been around Bs. 2675 since the Argentinean bonds have been sold, the total “gain” by intermediaries and those that pay the commissions has been Bs. 910 billion or US$ 423 million. Hard to find a bigger rip off in Venezuela’s history. ---Official Deposits, or deposits from official Government institutions represent approximately 26% of all deposits in the Venezuelan banking system. Total deposits in the banking system are of the order of US$ 18 billion. Thus, official deposits are approximately US$ 4.86 billion. Most of these official deposits move around the banking system based on who pays a commission to the “intermediary” Spread have come down, so it is no longer the nice business it used to be as they get “only” a 3% commission. This comes out to US$ 145 million if all deposits move based on corruption which is not the case, but the bulk does, so we are talking about a US$ 100 million racket. This used to be bigger than the first one, but as spreads came down, they were not getting rich as fast, so they invented the first one. Reportedly, the same people run both. ----This one is “small” comparatively speaking, but is proof of how pervasive corruption is in the revolution. At the National Housing Council, they have been helping those that lose their homes by lending them the money to buy another one. People are given between Bs. 40 million (US$ 18,604) and Bs. 120 million (US$ 55,183) at preferential interest rates. Well, unfortunately someone set up a racket within the institute and as many as 1,000 families who had their credit approved were ripped off, the check was issued and someone else cashed it. If we assume the average check is for Bs. 80 million (39,208), then we are talking about a clean US$ 39 million rip off in an institution that on top of that has failed to do its job for eight years. The people involved are truly screwed: They owe the money; they have to pay the financing until the issue is resolved and they still have no home. ---Last Wednesday our esteemed Minister of Finance presented the 2007 national budget. His talk was an exercise in either deceit or ignorance, depending on whether he believes what he said or was purposely trying to lie. My bet is it was 80% ignorance. Among other jewels, Merentes said that the era of devaluations is over. He also stated that there is a “small” problem with inflation but every state policy is aimed at attacking it. Well, the problem is not small; in fact, they had to force interest rates to come down 18 percentage points to drop inflation from 18% to 10% and now are back to 16% by the end of the year. Unfortunately, they can’t drop rates 18% again because they are so low now. Additionally, except for the Central Bank, that has been absorbing liquidity, but has no more capacity to do so, not one policy has been implemented to fight inflation. In any case, the numeric part of his speech has to do with the fact that Merentes proudly announced that the budget had a lot of latitude in it because the budget was made assuming an average price for the Venezuelan oil basket of US$ 29 per barrel. Unfortunately, Venezuela has been producing only 2.53 million barrels a day, while the budget assumes 3.5 million barrels a day, 400 thousand barrels above what the Government says is total production. So, let’s compare numbers. 29 dollars a barrel in the budget with 3.5 million barrels a day is equivalent to US$ 101 million a day in oil income. In order to have US$ 101 million in oil income, with the production that IEA says we have, the average price of the Venezuelan oil basket would have to be above US$ 40.11 dollars per barrel. However, Venezuela just this week announced that it will take a production cut of 138 thousand barrels a day, as part of the one million barrel a day cut by OPEC. This would lower production to 2.392 barrels of oil per day, which requires producing US$ 101 million a day, an average price of US$ 42.43 per barrel. Problem is that in the last three years, the final budget has been, on the average 25% higher than the proposed budget. This would require 25% more per barrel in order to maintain the budget or US$ 50.9 per barrel. Unfortunately, on Friday the barrel of oil for the Venezuelan oil basket closed at US$ 49.95, so that Merente's words use of "ample room", "comfortable cushion" and all those nice words he used, only exist in his own imagination. So, prepare yourself… 9:09:57 PM    comment []