The Devil's Excrement

A glimmer of hope as Goicochea speaks out for the individual and freedom in Venezuela

Wed, 21 May 2008 02:38:32 GMT

Sometimes it gets really boring to write about Venezuela. I mean, how repetitious can I get:

Should I write about PDVSA’s new 3.8 billion US$ loan from some Japanese companies and wonder why with il at US$ 130 per barrel, PDVSA needs to borrow money in exchange for oil?

Been there, done that, the deal is quite similar to one made last year by PDVSA with some other or maybe the same Japanese companies.

Or how about the Government “intervening” (self-intervening) airline company Conviasa, removing its board and throwing another US$ 120 million at that worthless airline. Talk about throwing bad money after bad money. I actually wrote about it a while back and even got hate mail and comments for even suggesting it would be a losing proposition. I like to tell the anecdote that billionaire investor Warren Buffet was asked at Columbia if he had a single piece of advise about investing, what would it be? His answer: Don’t invest in airlines.

Or I could tell you about all of the accusations of violations of Venezuela’s air or land space. Colombia says they didn’t do it, there is no reply. The US says sorry, Venezuela says that’s not enough.

Then Minister of the Interior and Justice says the Interpol evidence would not be valid in a Court of Law. So what? Neither would his testimony that all contacts with the FARC have been under the approval of the Colombian Government, which never approved Ivan Marquez being brought to Caracas or Rodrigo Granda becoming a Venezuelan under Chavez’ Government auspices. And that Mr. Chacin can be proven in a Court of Law, if we wanted to indict you or Chavez.

Or the Chief Prosecutor calling Interpol “clowns”, what else is new, if you are not with Chavez you are an enemy.

Or I could tell you about how stupid or boring the opposition has been. Divided, split or simply talking about elections rather about real problems.

Like the fact that this weekend alone, one person was killed every hour in Caracas alone…

Or that Venezuela ranked in the 123d. place in the global peace index sandwiched between Zimbabwe and Ethiopia and “losing” only to Colombia in the Continent. Is this what revolutions are about?

Instead I prefer to dwell on more positive notes, As you know I am a Red Sox fan, so it pleases me like you would not believe that Jon Lester a 24 year old pitcher who less than two years ago was diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma, managed to pitch a no hitter last night, It is not about the no-hitter, it is about rising above problems and having the can do attitude to do it.

Or simply read this, to gain a measure of the ability of the young and the strong to achieve the impossible.

But another 23 year old, this time a Venezuelan, made me extremely proud when he was given the Milton Friedman Award at the Cato Institute. Yon Goicochea gave a speech in a language that was not his own, which was simply charming, exhibiting what made him the natural leader than he is. But if I found his speech charming, he told me more in those few sentences, than opposition leaders have told me in many years. When Goicochea said that it was only the individual and their hard work and beliefs that can change poverty and their fate of our countries, he told me more than any Venezuelan politician in the last few years.

Even if he is twenty three years old, who cares? The other “experienced”, “seasoned” and “older” politicians have failed utterly in unleashing the intelligence of the Venezuelan people the way other countries have.

Watching Goicochea gives me a glimmer of hope in our future, at a time that we seem to be in a path of self-destruction, by both Government and the opposition. He gave in Washington the only speech I have heard recently calling for less Government, more empowering of the people and using the will, intelligence and talent of the people.All in an atmosphere of freedom to unleash the power of the individual.

Compare that to the Chavez Government whose idea of “high tech” is changing clocks by half an hour or chopping three zeroes off the currency.

Only ideas can change Venezuela and not the bad ones the Chavez Government seems to come up with daily. Hopefully, hundreds of Goicocheas will sprout off the student movement, giving rise to a Venezuela different than the ones that seems to have been running in place for years.

Searching for a white corn arepa

Mon, 19 May 2008 00:59:06 GMT

While in China, I stuck to the local food for lunch and dinner for most of the three weeks I was there and only had western meals twice, when I was invited, and for breakfast, when I had a more western fare even if some dumplings were usually included. Given that I am a big fan of Chinese fan, this was actually delightful and after three weeks of chopsticks and Chinese food, I can say I was not tired.

But I was tired of the same stuff for breakfast everyday, my cholesterol surely went up, eggs every other day, little cheese and, of course, no arepas, the corn flour national staple of Venezuela, which I eat regularly

Thus, I was eagerly looking forward to having my first arepas when I got back, except…

They were a huge disappointment…

You see, one of the few things that changed while I was gone is that while shortages of certain items disappeared the corn flour used to make arepas seems to be scarce. However, instead of just not finding the usual white corn flour, whether the “Pan” brand or not, instead what is now available is a whole bunch of improvised and newfangled flours which in the end do not a true arepa make.

I knew something was wrong the first day when I looked at my first arepa and while toasting them usually gives them a brownish color where it was hotter, the arepa seemed to have a tone somewhere between grey and brown in very uniform fashion with some dark brown parts where it toasted he most.

It turns out that now there is an “integral” corn flour, which is nothing but “whole grain” in Spanish, but truly after so many decades eating the true, "pure" white corn flour arepa, do you really expect me to find a whole grain arepa, true to the original?

All of which reminded of one of the worst Presidents of the IVth. Republic, Luis Herrera Campins, under whose Government there were shortages of white corn flour, which led Venezuela to import yellow corn from South Africa and a Government campaign, which clearly failed, to convince us that the yellow corn arepa tasted the same as the white variety we were used to.

Which utterly failed, of course and simply added to that Government’s demise and Luis Herrera becoming extremely unpopular.

So the next day I arrived, I went to the supermarket to find the real thing, but to my surprise it was nowhere to be found. Amazingly, I did find the return of the aforementioned yellow corn variety, the “integral” or “whole grain” and finally a “new” and “improved” white corn flour which is called "extra soft", whatever that may mean, and which is white corn flour to which rice has been added.

It turns out that I was lucky to find this, it is actually quite rare as people snap it up when they see it, over the other types (No hope for 100% white corn flour apparently)

I have yet to try this “extra soft” flour, it is only appropriate to finish off the “whole grain” package, before we start the new ones, but I do find it remarkable that rice is being added to the corn flour at a time when the price of rice worldwide is shooting through the roof, due mostly to drought in Australia.

But such are the mysteries of Venezuela’s economy, where everyday brings surprises.

Areperas, those temples of Venezuelan culinary expertise, still seem to have the white flour needed to maintain their standards, so there is always that solution for the quick fix if I need it.

But imagine my surprise this morning, when as I was writing this article, I find out that this weekend’s Wall Street Journal has an article by Raymond Sokolov entitled “In pursuit of the Arepa”, subtitled “Exploring the Venezuelan Food Scene of South Florida”, where it is reported that over in the greater Miami area, I can also get the white flour arepas, as described in the article "a pure. plain, white crumpled arepa", yummy. So, if worst comes to worse, I guess I can always hop over and go to El Arepazo in Miami and satisfy my desires and have my arepa.

Such are the surprising ways of the revolution.

All of which shows the true meaning of globalization as the article even mentions that Venezuelan Chef Edgar Leal of Cacao fame, is a consultant to a restaurant in Beijing.

So, maybe, just maybe, I could have even satisfied my needs over there…

(Let me know if the article in the WSJ is free or not, if not, I could reprint it here)

Nothing new in Interpol's report that we did not know about Hugo Chavez' support for the FARC guerrillas

Fri, 16 May 2008 00:04:20 GMT

The non-event happened today and Interpol told us that the documents that the material turned over by Colombian authorities that was found in the camp of guerrilla leader Raul Reyes were not manipulated. You can download the whole report here. Of course, even before the report came out Venezuela's Minister of Defense was saying the documents handed over by the Colombian authorities had no credibility and the Venezuelan "people" would know how to evaluate them. A strange statement given that this was a technical evaluation which according to the Interpol Director Venezuelan authorities did not even want to receive ahead of time.

Chavez at least waited until the report came out and used his customary diplomatic and polite language to call the Head of Interpol a clown, a bandit, not noble (?), a tramp and shameless.The PSF's began coming out of the woodwork with the Venezuelan Information Office immediately issuing a report discrediting the Interpol report and urging Americans to write their Congressmen, while pro-Chavez computer experts paraded on VTV to explain that it was impossible to do the checks that the Interpol claimed to have done. The level of stupidity should increase in the upcoming days as idiotic arguments are used to discredit the material obtained from the computers found at Reyes' camp.

Idiotic, because what is it after all that is being discussed? That Chavez sympathizes and backs the FARC guerrilla movement? Do we really need more proof of this or have people forgotten the eulogy Chavez dedicated to Raul Reyes the day he found out he had been killed and the outrage that it caused in the Venezuelan President who mobilize troops and got himself involved in a conflict between Ecuador and Colombia where he played no role? Chavez actually called Reyes, the second in command of the cruel guerrilla group, "a good revolutionary hero". Reyes was a man accused of hundreds of murders, cocaine trafficking, rape, sexual abuse. kidnappings, extortion and was found guilty in absentia in dozens of murders and kidnappings. In fact, he was sought by Interpol, the same organization that today presented its report at the request of the Colombian Government.

But do we really need more evidence to prove what is out there for everyone to see? Why do the Colombians need to create thousands of new documents to prove that Hugo Chavez backs the FARC? In fact, you can simply look through official Venezuelan Government pictures and find this jewel for example:

On the right is then Minister of Foreign Relations Jose Vicente Rangel, who at some point was Venezuela's Minister of Defense and also Vice-President. The picture was taken at the Foreign Ministry (called the Casa Amarilla). Notice the man on the left with the badly fitting suit? It happens to be none other than the good revolutionary Raul Reyes officially being greeted by the then Foreign Minister. Do serious law abiding Governments do that? Meet a known criminal, extortionist, drug trafficker, murderer and bomber with pomp and ceremony?

And now that you ask, how did Reyes get to Caracas? How was he contacted? Why was he there?

Of course, the imbeciles may argue that Rangel is not Chavez, but he was the Foreign Minister, later Minister of Defense and Vice President. But in any case, no matter what they may argue, there is this other very public picture and visit by Ivan Marquez to the Miraflores Presidential Palace, with big boss Hugo Chavez himself:

Once again, a known murdered, extortionist, kidnapper, drug trafficker being sougth internationally is received by Chavez at his own residence as if he were a dignitary. Once again, how did Marquez get there, how did Chavez contact him, why wasn't he detained?

Or I could remind you of the parody when the Venezuelan Government denied the FARC's Foreign Minister was in Venezuela, was registered in Venezuela and later it turned out he even had Venezuelan papers and none other than current Minister Rodriguez Chacin met him at the Simon Bolivar International Airport when he first arrived.

There is also the now infamous video of Rodriguez Chacin telling the guerrilla members that turned over the Colombian hostages that "keep it up we support you". Can it be any clearer than that?

So, do the Colombian authorities need to invent some 600 Gigabytes of material? There are over 200 thousand images for God's sake! Almost 40,000 documents!

Because in the end what has been reiterated is that Chavez sympathizes with the FARc and has been trying to support them. But there is really no proof that anything came to fruition. Would the Colombians make up so much stuff and not include more damming proof that offers of assistance and the desire to work together?

Seems far-fetched to me.

What these images and the papers prove is that Chavez and his Government walk on the wrong side of the law, on the wrong side of terrorism and that they are willing to help these movements if it matches its political goals.

However, the FARC papers also reveal that the guerrilla leaders do not like Chavez style. The papers have evaluations of the trends in Latin America and despite the success of Chavez of holding on to power, they express their concerns over his "Caudillo" style, which proves to me that while the FARC want to use Chavez for their own goals, they do not trust him and their interests are not aligned as Chavez has designs over Colombia too for his Bolivarian revolution.

So all we really have is more evidence of what we already knew: That the Chavez Government openly supports a bloody guerrilla movement and has been in constant contact with it, ignoring international law and acting as the outlaw Government that it has always been.

Not much new there!

The bizarre virtual world of the Chavez Government

Thu, 15 May 2008 13:13:41 GMT

The outrageous statements and accusations by Chavez and his buddies against the world may be considered ¨political¨in nature in nature, but they are getting weirder and weirder.

But how do you explain outright lies or hailing projects that simply do not exist?

Such was the case this week when Chavez signed the Sidor nationalization Bill into law and began talking about the area of Matanzas, where Sidor is, as the "City of Steel". Chavez began talking about a new plant being built to make "specialty" steels and high tech pipes, that will turn the whole area into this apparently virtual City of Steel.

Because as reporters scrambled to find out about the project, it turns out that there is no such project in Matanzas, Ciudad Piar, Puerto Ordaz or Bolivar state. Not even in the planning stage.

Such is the virtual and ever increasing isolated world that Chavez lives in. He still believes he eradicated illiteracy, poverty and soon inflation. All in his own peculiar world, where he is always right and the Hitlerian ghosts of imperialism hover over him.

A country that needs no diplomats

Tue, 13 May 2008 02:17:10 GMT

On Sunday’s El Nacional, the newspaper had a study showing that Venezuela’s diplomatic service has become totally unprofessional and no position since 2005 has been filled considering the credentials, trajectory and qualifications of the candidates. Instead, Venezuela’s diplomatic corps has become a way station for former military and Cabinet members who have no role to play within the Chavez administration but to whom Chavez owes some debt for services and favors rendered.

Today, former Foreign Minister, President of PDVSA and the last man to quit the Venezuelan guerrilla Ali Rodriguez said that academic qualifications and experience are no indicators of the abilities and capabilities necessary to become a diplomat and do a good job, blasting the article.

And he is right…

Because no professional diplomat would be able to carry his job under he guidance of Hugo Chavez. What can anyone trained in the art and science of diplomacy say to his or her host country after Chavez managed yesterday to blast Colombian President Uribe, King Juan Carlos of Spain and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel. This without his usual potshots at George Bush and the US Government.

But Chavez managed to blast Alvaro Uribe, calling him a liar, dangerous and irresponsible, because of his Government’s release of new documents found in the computers at the guerilla camp in Ecuador attacked by the Colombian Government. This is the same man that Chavez made peace with at the Dominican Republic less than two months ago after distancing themselves when Uribe stopped Chavez negotiating with the guerrilla group FARC. Just to make sure his diplomatic message was understood, Chavez said Colombia was trying to incite a continental war, prodded by the US Government.

Not that Uribe had not noticed that something was amiss in the to country’s diplomatic relations, as Foreign Minister Maduro, who is a bus driver by training, had failed to name a new Venezuelan Ambassador to Colombia since the supposed “rapprochement” of President Chavez and Uribe.

I guess if there is no Ambassador, there is no training needed, but once again Chavez send relations between the two countries into a black hole that is simply unnecessary, unless you are afraid of the conclusion s reached by Interpol on the content of Raul Reyes’ computer next Thursday and are simply preparing the way to deny the undeniable.

It would be equally difficult for any diplomat to try to defend Chavez’ charge that Germany’s Chancellor Merkel represents the same right wing that supported Hitler and fascism, suggesting he may confront her at the upcoming summit and even telling her she would send her to…except that she is a woman. Merkel’s crime was simply to dare say that Hugo Chavez does not speak for Latin America. Chavez’ words could not have been more undiplomatic, as anyone with the most basic knowledge of Germany’s history would realize how sensitive Germans are to that period of their history. Which German diplomats replied to reiterating that Chavez does not represent Latin America.

And maybe because Chavez previews the damage which will be created by the upcoming Interpol report, Chavez took advantage to take a shot at Spanish King Juan Carlos, reminding everyone of the episode in which the King told Chavez to shut up, saying the King believes he is superior and does not understand what is going on in Latin America. This elicited an immediate response from Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero who sent Chavez a clear message that reminded the Venezuelan President that he has to respect Spanish institutions as part of the relations between the two countries.

And there were reactions elsewhere, as both Peru’s President Alan Garcia and Mexico’s Felipe Calderon felt the need to intervene defending Colombia and Merkel and pointing out that such negative statements by Chavez do nothing but impede integration. Calderon even noted Merkel’s origin’s, which sent a clear message to the Venezuelan President that he had no clue about what he was talking about when he referred to Merkel as fascist or a follower of Hitler.

Thus, Venezuela truly does not require professional diplomats who would be incapable of defending the country and its President. Thus, Chavez has fewer and fewer friends as a consequence of his own irresponsible and idiotic words, which have increased isolated him from the international community.

However, one cannot help but be concerned by the ever-increasing strident and irresponsible tone by Hugo Chavez. Is he getting ready to distance himself from the world when Interpol ratifies what we already know about his relationship with guerrilla group FARC? Or is he one step ahead preparing himself to be isolated as the final days of the Enabling Bill arrive and he issues a hemorrhage of decrees legislating what Venezuelan rejected in the December referendum?

In either case, stormy days are ahead for Venezuela both internally and internationally and there is noting any trained and professional diplomat could have done to stop it.

Memories of China

Mon, 12 May 2008 01:01:54 GMT

Took a gizillion pictures in China, here are two which show the spectacular views and the people of China

Three weeks in which the country seemed to be running in place

Sun, 11 May 2008 00:37:50 GMT

Returning to Venezuela after three weeks of traveling, I find that very little has changed since I left. The scandals, stupidity and headlines seem to be variations of the same theme. After all, how much proof do we need that Chavez and his cronies are simply involved in an ideological project with no content and whose only objective is control of the country without benefiting the population in the name of socialism?

The headlines from abroad tells us that the data contained in Reyes' computer proves that Chavez had a close relationship with the FARC. Is there a surprise there? Only the imbecile cheerleaders of the revolution still try to claim the data is false. One really does not need much proof to know how tight Chavez was and is with the FARC. Have people forgotten the FARC's Foreign Minister Rodrigo Granda? Granda lived in Venezuela under a different name in total opulence, using papers provided to him by the Chavez Government. He even registered to vote! And when he first came to Venezuela he was provided full VIP protocol service at the airport, ordered by none other than the current Minister of the Interior. If Huguito disagreed with this actions, why was Chacin, who also had a second identity a turbulent past and a few million dollars under his name when he left the Ministry, brought back to the position last year?

And it was Chacin that was caught live during the hstage handover calling the FARC guerrillas "comrades" and telling them to keep it up, "we support your fight". And Chavez did all but cry when he found out that Raul Reues had been killed, calling him a hero and the like.

And then of course, people seem to have forgotten that General Gonzalez Gonzalez fall out of favor with Chavez came about when he told Chavez about the FARC camps within the borders of Venezuela and Chavez did nothing. Did we really need to know more?

The material found in Reyes' camp simply confirms the details and it has provided data that has led to arrests and captures, so it is absolutely idiotic to even suggest the data was faked by the CIA. If you argue that, you have to suggest that the presence of FARC leader Ivan Marquez at the Miraflores Palace, a man wanted internationally for murder, drug trafficking and terrorists acts, was also a CIA plot, which would then imply Chavez is CIA, as absurd a suggestion as saying FARC has not helped the FARC and has no ties to them.

Meanwhile, the members of the Electoral Board CNE, none of which are lawyers, do not even consult with their legal counsel to rule 4-1 that all decisions by the comptroller finding wrongdoing by an Government official, bans them from running in the regional elections. What a great tool! A person appointed by you single handedly decides there are crimes without a court mediating in the process and bans anyone the Government from running. Never mind that the Constitution says otherwise. But who gives a damn about the Constitution anyway. Mugabe would be proud of them, he never thought of doing something like that!

And then there is Hugo going to Court against his former wife claiming that he is not given the proper rights to be with his daughter. Never mind that he does not pay the alimony established by the Court or that he has had more important things to do on significant days for the same daughter, he has to make the point that his ex-wife can not oppose him. After all, which Court will rule against Chavez in a country where women are always favored in these cases? He is after all, the archetypical irresponsible Venezuelan father.

And as Chavez decreed the nationalization of Sidor, a majority of the country went dark in a clear indication of the inability of the Government to even sustain functioning institutions. But did Chavez get the message? No way, he is not a thinking person just a rabid ideologue.

And the Government sold US$ 4 billion to lower the parallel swap rate, which moved down a bit, but the country's bonds moved even more as foreign investors are wary of Venezuela's risk, even with oil at US$ 120. It makes no sense for the country's bonds to yield close to 11% for the long term issues or even more ridiculous, the 2010 issue which yields close to 9%. Public employees got a 30% minimum salary increase which will cost in the words of the Minister of Planning only 3 percentage points of inflation. Sure, this money will have no impact on the swap exchange rate as more money flows into the economy. But Minister El Troudi is no economist, as it should be, given the disregard for economic principles by the revolution.

And it was no surprise what happened at Venezuela's largest University, Universidad Central. There were four candidates, only one pro-Government, the winner got about 2,000 votes, while the Chavista candidate, who was born a revolutionary under the name Lenin, got 531 votes, down from about 600 when Minister Merentes ran in 2002. Incredible from a University that cheered Chavez' victory in 1998.

And Chavez and his Minister of Defense denounced the secessionist movements that want Zulia state to split from Venezuela much like Santa Cruz voted last Sunday. Except that no one has been able to find what the proposal is, who is making it and who supports it. It must be an ultrasecret CIA movement.

Which shows that not much canged in the last three weeks in Venezuela...which is unusual when I travel...

A superficial overview of modern China

Fri, 09 May 2008 01:03:35 GMT

While I like to limit the subject matter of my posts in this blog to Venezuela, on very special occasions I digress, but this post is likely to be one of the biggest departure from the focus of this blog. I just spent three remarkable weeks traveling through China and somehow I feel not only the need to put together my thoughts, but it also seems fitting to tell you about it in view of the large differences between what is going on in Venezuela and what is happening in China from both a political, social and economic point of view.

I visited China twenty-two years ago in 1986 when I went to a conference and I wanted to go back and see the changes that I have read so much about. I have actually followed quite closely a lot of what is happening there, but even then nothing prepared me for what I saw and I am still trying to understand and digest it all. Three weeks barely gives you time to understand a country as complex as China, which is undergoing such a massive transformation in all aspects of its life, but I will try to give you my own biased and superficial description of what I saw in that fascinating country.

China is certainly a quirky country, full of contradictions and contrasts. I visited some major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Xian, but also visited what may be a tiny city there, the picturesque town of Guilin in the south, as well as numerous towns and cities along the Yangtze river, where I spent four days, including Fulin, Fengdu, Yichang and Chongqing, the last one having a population in its metropolitan area of 32 million people, more than all of Venezuela. Thus, I saw the remarkable metropolis that Shanghai has become, the elegant beauty of Beijing, but I also saw life in rural areas and the transformation caused by the gigantic Three Gorges Dam, which will be completed later this year.

I barely recognized Beijing or Xian, the two cities I visited in 1986. The transformation has been simply staggering. If it were not for the historical monuments, such as Tian An Me or the Forbidden Palace, it would have been hard to say I had been there earlier.

The forces unleashed by Den Xiao Ping on the Chinese economy are remarkable. From what I understood, there are two features that dominate the new China: the conversion to a market economy and the decision to give regions a lot of independence in what they can do and their planning. While certain issues are still decided in Beijing, provinces and municipalities function essentially independently, raising funds through real state "sales" (land is owned by the Government, so they are truly selling only 70 year leases) and taxes and using the money for their own local infrastructure projects.

What is most impacting is how rational and pragmatic the process is. Local authorities hire the best and are not second-guessed by the central Government. The orders are to be fairly pragmatic and empty of ideology. Simply put the people should improve their lives. And market polices dominate the how it is done, as simple as that. Wealth is seeing as something good in the belief that it will trickle down. Differences between top and bottom do remain huge.

The "best" rule through a complex process by which only the best and brightest are able to go to the University (11% of those eligible are accepted in a very competitive system for university posts) and the Communist party attracts the best from those that graduate. But beyond that, the Chinese also have an incredible work ethic. Students have hours that would seem absurd anywhere in the West, starting classes early in the morning and ending late at night. At river town Yichang, the best school in the city starts at 7 AM and ends at 10 PM, as students stay to do their homework. Similarly, students make sure they do their weekend homework early, so as to be able to attend the "special" classes, special activities and training required if you want to get ahead.

While one hears about the large-scale projects taking place in China, what impressed me the most is how infrastructure, both roads and housing has been the priority everywhere in the belief that good infrastructure leads to economic prosperity. It was clearly impressive to see the effort in relocating 1.2 million people along the Yangtze riverbanks, but it was more impressive to see the roads everywhere, the huge high rises, the airports, the power plants, which were everywhere. If in the peak of the housing boom in Spain the crane was jokingly said to have become the national tree, then in China I saw forests of them.

Of course a lot of this infrastructure building is only possible because labor is very cheap, allowing architects and designers to create projects that would be prohibitively expensive anywhere else. We did see housing built in the late eighties and early nineties that looked poorly built, already aging and with problems. But overall quality seems to be improving. Curiously, when you get or buy an apartment, you get no plumbing, air conditioner, appliances, toilets and even wiring. This leads to huge high rises with hundreds of exterior air conditioners, which create rain in the summer as they drip.

But there was also cleanliness and a level go hygiene that was not present 22 years ago. There has been a very direct campaign at the grassroots level to improve habits. The cities are clean, sadly, cleaner than Venezuela now. Running water is everywhere, which was not the case 20 years ago. I am not sure how it was done, other than I heard subsidies in which the Government would help pay certain expenses for improving hoes, but they were always shared with homeowners.

The economy is incredibly free. The Government controls certain things, but is always looking to liberate them. State owned companies go public almost daily, giving managers the mandate to make running them more open and always with profit in mind. The financial system seems a little bit obscure in how it functions, but even in that area the Government is opening up to foreign competition.

There seems to be corruption at the Government level, but there are also examples that while the Government is allowing some officials to make some money, there is a limit to excesses. One of the Shanghai officials that successfully led to the renovation of certain parts of the city is in jail for 16 years, he was just too obvious.

The scale of developments is simply beyond anything I ever expected and I have been a China believer for some time. But it is one thing to read about it an another to see it. How do you explain Shanghai going from 20 to 2,000 skyscrapers in 20 years? Or Beijing going from 85,000 cars in 1986 when I was last there to 3.5 million today? Or that sometime in the next four years China's per capita income will exceed Venezuela's, but they do not depend on oil? Or China's GDP exceeding that of the US before 2030?

Those are massive changes and they have been achieved in a period of time unparalleled by anyone in history.

More importantly, China has now a modern infrastructure, something that the US or Europeans countries can't boast they have. I thought of that as I crossed Frankfurt's airport, full of long and somewhat dreary corridors and compared them to Beijingss brand new incredible airport or Shanghais new airport terminals. Even small cities have brand new pretty airports that would put Maiquetia to shame.

Family life is very special. The old live for the young and the one-child policies have emphasized that even more. The whole of family life is centered upon improving the kid's life, sacrificing everything along the way. People express their love for the young in ways the West does not do. Basically, the sacrifices and efforts end only at death and go as far as leaving apart from the kids. Nothing is too small to guarantee the future of the kids. The children from the one-child only era, have become in their own words "Little Emperors", pampered to death, but at the same time subjected to incredible pressures to succeed.

In my way, China is still divided in two by class and family. By class, because despite the remarkable progress, 60% of the population remains rural and largely poor, while the rest is prosperous and lives in the cities. Similarly, there is a division by age, the young have accepted and embraced the changes and the challenges, while the old still may have misgivings. Life for the old was simple and most things used to be guaranteed. The system was unfair, but everyone understood it. Now too many things are changing, individual imitative is the key, but the fear of uncertainty permeates their thinking.

But neither group questions what is happening. For the old, the great leap forward and the Cultural Revolution were policies they backed and they simply failed. For the young, they were events to be understood and analyzed, but neither group wants to see it from a critical point of view. Both Mao and Ping have an almost deity status, together with Dr. Sun Yat Sen, the founder of the Chinese Republic in 1919. No matter how much I asked, I found little criticism of either of them.

A prosperous and enterprising 74 year old lady living in a town in the Yangtze, who is doing today much better than twenty years ago (she has a new apartment and three stores), skirted gracefully my question as to who her preferred leader was by saying that all of them, whether Mao or Ping, made positive contributions and tried different things for the "people" and while some failed, other succeeded in making things better and that is what is important. I got similar answers everywhere as I tried to get some criticism of Mao, but failed to so.

Of course, the Chinese people have been repressed and controlled in the way they think for a long time and what they have today is simple a continuation of those policies. The state controls the media and all of the news flow. There is guidelines and censorship. Most Chinese only heard of the killing of ethnic Han Chinese in Tibet, but have heard nothing of the killings in reaction to that. Most of them have heard the Government's story that Tibet has always been part of China, ignoring 700 years of independence up to 1951. Thus, what is big news in the West seems irrelevant and puzzling to most Chinese.

Because in the end the Chinese are extremely nationalistic and proud. To them the Olympics is something, which is not only a priority, but it should have taken place in China long ago, to show the progress their country has made. They feel they were short changed in earlier picks for Olympic cities. Any interference with that has to be politically motivated.

Curiously, the Chinese seem to feel more sympathetic to the US than to Europeans, as the former have never occupied China and even helped the country in the war with the Japanese. The Japanese clearly do not occupy a very favorable status for most Chinese. I learned early in my trip that any praise for anything Japanese would be met with a negative or at least skeptical reaction and I even used it as bait when it seemed obvious that I would extract some sort of reaction.

I did try to probe on freedom of speech issues everywhere and was always met with the same response: "Yes, we have some limitations, but things are improving all the time". It may be true, but the Government still exerts total control over the media.

Twenty years ago, sex was taboo and public displays of affections were a no, no. Today the young enjoy levels of freedom and openness unheard of before. They joke of an MBA meaning Married But Available and people live together before marrying in the big cities, even if mothers to dominate the kids lives, having they marry before a certain age and demanding prior approval of the perspective partners. Mothers seem to be truly overbearing in China, even after the recent changes.

Freedom of speech limitations are always scary, but there were less scary than twenty years ago. It is illegal to have satellite dishes that receive foreign signals, but some have them. The Internet is indeed censored and you can read the English paper and know it was written by the Government. But the Chinese know more about the world than they used to do and books and magazines are not censored the way they used to be.

Movement is also freer. When I was there in 1986, I could not go everywhere, neither could the Chinese. Today we both can roam essentially everywhere, the magnitude of internal Chinese tourism is staggering and migrations to the cities is such that an estimated 170 million people have move to the cities in the last two decades. How is that for scale?

I was actually more bothered by the issues of sexism, racism and classism more than others. Women are not only discriminated against but even the one-child policies today, give a remarkable strong preference to males over females. Similarly, there is a strong deference and preference paid to the rich and Government officials everywhere. The latter live in special compounds and have all sorts of privileges.

Racism is also present and there are clear policies to deal with it despite words to the contrary. Tibet may be part of China, but the new Tibetan railroad is being used to "export" Han Chinese to the area to dominate the Tibetan population, while the natural resources are used to develop the rest of China.

Finally there is the environment. It can get very bad. Chongqing was absolutely awful! Beijing was not better, except that it rained hard while I was there clearing the air significantly, I can honestly say that I did not see blue skies in the three weeks I was there and was bothered by pollution in at least two cities. The Government seems to be talking a lot about the environment but doing very little. It was on this issue that I heard the most criticism of all, including the negative possible effects of the Three Gorge Dam, which leads me to think that the Government itself may be promoting these protests as an excuse to attack these issues and have the population rally around protecting the environment.

But all in all, it was a very positive impression that I got from China, their slope is positive for most basic issues, including human rights. Here is a Government using all of its resources to improve the well being of its people, while at the same time maximizing foreign investment to help it improve the impact even further. It is a revolution, but based on the individual, rather than the collective (They tried that and failed!) It is a belief that the entrepreneurship of the individual will overwhelm state policies to the point that economic sectors that are liberalized become a free for all as there are no anti-monopoly rules except in sectors still under control by the Government. I never saw so many cell phone stores in my life!

It is indeed a belief in Deng Tsiao Ping's famous "To be rich is glorious" that will expand and trickle down to the people. Combine that with decades of Government domination with very hard working people and you get an incredible miracle.

At times I worried that those same forces could be turned around and the whole process be reversed in the presence of an external threat. That certainly seems like a real possibility, but at the same time, the young have now lived for twenty years under this new system and have seen the improvements. I am not sure they can be turned off from on day to the next unless the threat was real.

In fact, if I were a Chinese Government official, I would worry about how these young people will react the day things slow down, or if the environment continues to deteriorate or more political freedom is not given to them. In the end, the Government has to continue on the positive slope on all fronts for people to be happy. Media control may one day allow the Government to turn the people in the face of an external threat. But in the long run, it will be internal development that will determine how the Chinese future plays out.
Right now, it looks very good.

A simple cure for Venezuela's inflation.

Wed, 07 May 2008 22:02:44 GMT

WARNING: This is NOT one of those very educated posts about swapping (rates), unstructured notes, solidity and celestial bonds for which you need a Ph.D. in Economics and Subatomic Physics. This is a much simpler and yet
effective method that this DDGB (Devoted and Distinguished Ghost Blogger) is proposing to drastically reduce the inflation in Venezuela. The conclusions at the end are irrefutable and MUCH simpler than any of Miguel's convoluted analysis.

The background:

Ultimas Noticias is a popular high circulation tabloid that has maintained a rather uncritical role with
respect to the Goverment. As a result, it has earned the trust of the Revolution and a
lucrative supply of goverment advertising.

Once in a while, however, even Ultimas Noticias exposes some of the
negative realities that are touching its readers, such as inflation.

The story:

On Saturday, May 3, UN headlines was "in Mercal prices have inflated." The headline specifically
mentioned that milk prices were raised from "4.70 BsF to 8.00 BsF (70% more)".

On Sunday, May 4, in Alo Presidente, Chavez had some harsh words about
Ulltimas Noticias.

He said that the information was false, that milk was still costing 4.70 BsF
and that UN should retract if they still wanted to have their respect. He also mentioned that
the Capriles family, that owns Ultimas Noticias, were oligarchs.

The new developments:

The next day (May 5), when the Ultimas Noticias journalist visited a Mercal, the inflation had
vanished: the President WAS right, the cost of the milk was still 4.70 BsF.

Unfortunately for Chavez, Ultimas Noticias did not retract....
when the journalist went to the Mercal, she also saw some customers waiting
in line asking for a reimbursement for the difference in the price of milk.

As a matter of fact, they had paid 8BsF for the milk a few days before.

The journalist took a picture of the receipt and the picture was put it in the May 6 Ultimas Noticias'
frontpage with the headline: the milk price had indeed been 8BsF.

The observation:

In a matter of a few days, the price of milk went down from 8 to 4 BsF.

The Conclusion:

Why bother about inflation?

Just publish prices in the front page of Ultimas Noticias!

Jorge Arena
Most Distinguished Ghost.

P.D.
Last minute news:

The Minister of food just said that the price of Milk is still 4.70 BsF and that it was due to
a technical failure that the milk was sold at 8 BsF. He said that thanks to Ultimas
Noticias headline he inmediately realized the technical problem and fixed it.

The corollary of the post

Publishing prices in UN not only contains inflation but it also helps the goverment improve
its IT system.

The photo of the year

Tue, 06 May 2008 00:38:38 GMT

A picture is worth 1000 economic explanations. Unfortunately I cannot copy the amazing picture
here, but I refer to Quico's blog.

Only in Venezuela.

(posted by Bruni)

Lights out!

Wed, 30 Apr 2008 03:23:28 GMT

Today's blackout may simply be showing the dark future awaiting us...

Miguel from the Yangtze River