I've been waiting for a few days to write about the election. Tuesday was a very depressing night. Republicans taking control of the Senate and thus all three branches of government for the next two years is an astoundingly bad turn of events for our country. We will see incredible damage done to our economy, our judiciary and many of our Constitutional rights and freedoms. It may be a long time before these damages can be corrected. But it is time to move on.
The conservative (also called the mainstream) media has been touting the Republican gains as historic and "monumental". In truth, relative to November 4th, the Democrats are up three state houses, are down three Senate seats (with one runoff pending), and are down seven House seats (also with one runoff pending). The changes are marginal, even if they are in a surprising direction for a mid term election. Here is a rundown of the biggest surprises.
Senate: The biggest surprise is Chambliss over Cleland in Georgia. That a chickenhawk could get away with impuning the patriotism of a triple-amputee Vietnam veteran speaks volumes about the depths Republicans are willing to stoop to and the timidity with which Democrats respond. This has got to change. Next in the line of surprises would be Coleman over Mondale in Minnesota. It is hard not to think that the conservative exaggeration of Wellstone's memorial service played a role in moving the mushy middle away from the Democrats. I trace this one directly to the conservative media. It is something the Democrats will have to figure out how to deal with better. Less surprising but just as disappointing was Talent defeating Carnahan in Missouri. But in reality, it was an "incumbent" running her first ever campaign against a seasoned veteran. It was an uphill battle and she fell just short. The ugly part is that Talent lied about his positions every bit as much as W did in 2000. The final surprise was Sununu over Shaheen in New Hampshire. But New Hampshire is notoriously hard to call -- much less understand.
House: By my count there were 14 races that went against my predictions and thus count as surprises. Thirteen of those were Republican victories. Subtract a couple that were just wishful thinking, and that's about ten races where Republicans upset Democratics that I thought had a good chance to win. Of those, only one was a Republican defeat of a Democratic incumbent, a feat the Democrats matched. Redistricting battles between incumbents were also a wash. Two surprising Republican pickups were from new districts and two from defeating Democrats in previously Democratic districts. Not a particularly good showing by the Democrats, but it's also devoid of any obvious trends, either.
Governors: In some ways, the governors races were the most disappointing for the Democrats (nothing was more important than the Senate, of course, but expectations were higher for the state houses). Of the 36 races, ten were a surprise and eight of those surprises favored the Republicans. I was looking forward to a 30-20 split in favor of the Dems, but it looks like 24-26 in favor of the Reps. This still represents a gain of three governorships, but I was hoping for much more.
I'm not trying to minimize the fact that the Democrats lost ground during an election where historical trends indicated they should have gained. But the losses weren't massive and reports of the death of the Democratic Party are premature.
8:07:51 AM 
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