Critiques of Editorials
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  Wednesday, August 07, 2002


It is sad to see one of my favorite bloggers, Bob Somerby, whacking on another of my favorite bloggers, Josh Marshall.  You have to scroll down to see the last of a series of have-ats.  What Somerby says about Marshall is correct, however there are lots of other journalists who are far more worthy of getting whacked on.
11:39:50 PM    comment []

Posting is really easy with this software, but I want to add a little more like a list of my favorite links and I can't figure out how to do it without doing some major HTML work.
10:28:41 PM    comment []

Article - William Saletan's review in Slate.com of Al Gore's NY Times Op Ed

One Line Summary - "Al Gore's bogus defense of his populist message"

Primary Weakness - Forgets that Al ran in 2000, not 1992

Critique - Saletan's opening line is "When a vice president backed by a roaring economy runs a class-warfare presidential campaign and loses, most people would call the experiment a failure." But why would most people call it a failure? My memory is that Bush lead Gore in every early poll. According to the Daily Howler, "Gore’s first campaign trip—to New Hampshire—occurred on March 15, 1999. The next day, CNN/Gallup/USA Today released its new national poll: Bush 56, Gore 41." So, once Al Gore started running his "class-warfare" political campaign, he gained 15 points in 8 months. His acceptance speech was strong on "people vs. powerful" rhetoric and it gave him his first lead in the polls. If a pundit is going to call a message "lousy politics" and that "it illustrates his ineptitude as a candidate", he needs some strong facts to back them up like Gore losing a big lead, lots of voters saying they decided against voting against Gore because of his message, or Gore losing voters that a democratic candidate should expect to have. Instead, all Saletan offers it some poll that I think lacks true relevance - the poll is all voters, not swing voters and the reasons give for doing something are rarely the reasons for why the actually do something.

Saletan thinks that Gore' populism should have been like Bill Clinton's. However, the environment in 1992 was much different than the environment in 2000. In 1992, the unemployment ran from 7.3% to 7.8%, the country had just gone through a recession, there had been major deficits for many years and no end to the deficits in sight. His opponent's biggest weakness was that he didn't seem to understand people's plight in a down economy. So Clinton's statements of "One sentence in the platform we built says it all: 'The most important family policy, urban policy, labor policy, minority policy and foreign policy America can have is an expanding, entrepreneurial economy of high-skill, high-wage jobs'" and "We don't have a person to waste. There is no them; there is only us" are very apropos for a down economy and high unemployment, but they don't fit the environment in 2000. In 2000, unemployment ranged from 4.1% to 3.9%. Millions of people were moving off of welfare and into real jobs. The government was projecting a huge surplus and the biggest question was "How is the surplus going to be divided?".

Saletan also ignores that Gore was running not against a moderate Republican like Clinton had but against an ultra conservative who was trying to hide the lopsided nature of his policies. Dubya's answer to "How is that surplus going to be divided?" was mainly to the richest 1%, but he tried to hide that fact by calling his tax a "middle class tax cut". Gore's "people vs. powerful" theme emphasized that Dubya had long favored rolling back regulations to aid corporations to a degree that would make voters uncomfortable if they fully understood. As the press showed no interest in telling voters what Bush's policies really were, it was up to the Gore campaign to educate the voters on how extreme they were. Bush made his policies sound like everyone would be better off ("Every day is Earth Day when you own your own property") and Gore had to make the case that Bush was really talking about helping "Big Tobacco, Big Oil, the big polluters, the pharmaceutical companies, [and] the HMOs."

But Saletan really undermines his argument by viciously attacking Gore when no such attack is warranted. Gore wrote an Op Ed that said I told you that if Bush was president that the powerful would benefit and the average joe would get stiffed. Saletan ignores completely whether Gore is right. Saletan seems much more interested in calling Gore and his campaign "a failure", "inauthentic and grating", inept, pious and that "his driving imperative is to prove that he's right and his opponents are wrong." Saletan calls Gore's populism "class-warfare" for no reason (Bush's policies are really class-warfare - by the rich). I read some of Saletan's other articles and there was none of that ad hominem attack even though I feel the subjects are far more worthy (Daschle's inability to wound Bush, Bush's stonewalling on scandals).

The big story of the 2000 election wasn't Gore's populist theme, but the media's constant attacks on Gore while giving Bush a free ride. It seems that some things never change.


10:15:01 PM    comment []

An Economic Mystery

A while back, I tried to figure out the GDP growth rate for the whole of the Bush II Administration. I had downloaded the GDP numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) before they released the Q2 numbers for 2002. When the BEA released the Q2 numbers, they also revised GDP numbers for the prior three years. Apparently, once a year the BEA revises the prior three years GDP numbers (though they didn't do any revision in 2001). During the 1999 and 2000 revisions, the maximum change was 0.4%. If the economy averages a 3.2% growth, a 0.4% adjustment would be adjusting the average GDP growth by 12.5%.

Looking at the latest adjustments, I was very disturbed by the magnitude of the revisions:

Time    Old  New  Change

1999q1  3.1% 3.0% -0.1%

1999q2  1.7% 2.0% +0.3%

1999q3  4.7% 5.2% +0.5%

1999q4  8.3% 7.1% -1.2%

2000q1  2.3% 2.6% +0.3%

2000q2  5.7% 4.8% -0.9%

2000q3  1.3% 0.6% -0.7%

2000q4  1.9% 1.1% -0.8%

2001q1  1.3% -0.6% -1.9%

2001q2  0.3% -1.6% -1.9%

2001q3 -1.3% -0.3% +1.0%

2001q4  1.7% 2.7% +1.0%

2002q1  6.1% 5.0% -1.1%

Most of these adjustments are many times the usual biggest adjustment. The adjustments radically change the story of the economic development over the last two years. The old story was that the strong economy cooled down at the end of the Clinton administration and then went into recession after Bush passed his tax cut. The story now is that the economy slowed to a crawl in Clinton's last 2 quarters, went into a recession shortly thereafter, and bounced back in the fourth quarter of 2001 and the first quarter of 2002.

I am not a professional economist so I can't follow the explaination for the change.  However, I just can't believe that the BEA would be this off.

PS If someone could tell me how to calculate the % GDP growth for Dubya's administration, I would greatly appreciate it.


6:26:52 PM    comment []

I am disappointed that no pundit I have read has mentioned Jenna Bush's summer internship at Brillstein-Grey, a management firm for Hollywood stars.  How did the two connect - did Brillstein-Grey track down Jenna in Austin and offer her a job or did Jenna use her family connections to request a job of Brillstein-Grey?  Is Brillstein-Grey using this as a backdoor method of buying influence with the Bush family?  How much did the job pay?  What type of political favors have the Bushes done for Brillstein-Grey?  I doubt these questions have been asked of the Bush family and I am sure that they would say that Jenna is a private person so the answers are not for the public.

This is the type of favor swapping that the rich and powerful use to make their kids rich and powerful.  When Dubya ran for governor and president, a big part of his credentials was that he had been a business man.  When you look into it, he was not qualified for any of the business positions he held and he did a poor job in each of them except as General Managers of the Rangers.  However, the fact that he held the position was used as a justification for giving him the next position when the reality was that people were trying to buy influence with the elder Bush.

I saw this personally once.  I was an accountant at a company and the CFO were I worked was married to a Big 5 partner.  A fellow partner asked our CFO to give his daughter a summer job in the accounting department.  We hadn't planned on having a summer intern but interns are cheap and she was given the internship without an interview.  Now when she looked for her next job, she had a leg up over her peers because she had accounting work experience.  I would be willing to bet that her work experience and her dad's connections resulted in a much better position coming out of college than the rest of her peers.

So why hasn't the media look into yet another use of the Bush family connections?    We know that when the elder Bush was vice-president and president, people threw huge amounts of money at his children in an attempt to buy political influence.  Why isn't the media looking into a possible repeat now?


6:14:36 PM    comment []

Despite the fact that the Bush administration has recently constantly trotted out the line the "economic fundamentals are sound", the only place where I have seen a comment on whether the our current economic fundamentals are sound is MaxSpeak's Weblog.  I don't know how to link to the individual item, so search the webpage for "sound".
8:01:48 AM    comment []

This is going to be a weblog devoted to short-but-sweet criticisms of political editorials.  I had posted a number of these in the Table Talk forums back when they were free, but a Blog is probably a better channel for delivery of such pieces.

This morning's editorials in my local paper (the Dallas Morning News) that criticize the Bush administration: 0.  That criticize Al Gore: 1. 


7:45:46 AM    comment []



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