Gallup poll details on Presidential Approval raises lots of questions
I have never understood why Dubya's approval rating is so high. Gallup recently released a new presidential approval poll that shows Dubya's approval at 65%. On the page of the press release, there is a graph that shows how Dubya's approval has tracked over time by political party (Republicans, Democrats, Independent). Prior to 9/11, all three groups had relatively consistent levels of support for Dubya - the Republicans in the 85-95% range, the Independents in the 45-60% range and the Democrats in the 25-35% range. After 9/11, Dubya's support shot up to ~82% from the Democrats, ~87% from the Independents and and ~97% from the Republicans.
Challenge time - how do you think Dubya's support trended since 9/11 by party? Where do you think the support by party is now relative to prior to 9/11? My guess was that all three groups would trend downward, with the Democrats having the sharpest trend and the Republicans the shallowest, and that all there groups would be 5-10% above their pre-9/11 levels. Come up with your guess. I'll give you a hint - my guess is wrong. Once you have your guess click here and page down.
As you can see, the Democrats and Independents have trended down with close to the same slope. As a consequence, Independents have a level of approval (56%) comparable to a couple of weeks before 9/11, but the Democrats have a level of approval (50%) well above their pre-9/11 level. Republicans have no downward trend - their level of approval has stayed in the mid-90's since 9/11.
This raises lots of questions for me - why hasn't Dubya's approval from Democrats dropped more sharply than that from Independents? There is only a 6% difference now compared to ~20% before 9/11. Why is the Republican support steady? Surely Republicans also have had a hard time finding jobs, have had their retirement portfolios better, have seen reports that crime is up and huge deficits are back? Does Bush's position on a few key issues such as taxes, gun and abortion trump any questions about how the country is doing? Knowing a little more shows me how little I do know.
7:13:07 PM 
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