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Thursday, July 10, 2003

The underlying philosophy of the Kondratiev Cycle is that boys will be boys. They will seek to avoid the mistakes of their fathers and, in so doing, will repeat the mistakes of their grandfathers. That would be Prescott. Increased longevity and later marriages may have extended the cycle a little beyond its 55-year period and economic wave theories require a belief in "voodoo economics" beyond the capability of those who favor fact and science, but the underlying logic is appealing to anyone who has ever rebelled against authority... 8:39:15 PM    comment []

"There is no doubt in my mind that Saddam Hussein was a threat to the world peace, and there is no doubt in my mind that the United States, along with allies and friends, did the right thing in removing him from power," Bush said at a news conference with South African President Thabo Mbeki. 6:00:32 PM    comment []

Logical Fallacies   A google on the expression “officials say” yields “about 565,000” hits. A search on “anonymous authorities” returns only 430.   One of the hits returned for the latter is this site, which defines the term:   The authority in question is not named. This is a type of appeal to authority because when an authority is not named it is impossible to confirm that the authority is an expert. However the fallacy is so common it deserves special mention. A variation on this fallacy is the appeal to rumour. Because the source of a rumour is typically not known, it is not possible to determine whether to believe the rumour. Very often false and harmful rumours are deliberately started in order to discredit an opponent. It also gives some examples: A government official said today that the new gun law will be proposed tomorrow. Experts agree that the best way to prevent nuclear war is to prepare for it. It is held that there are more than two million needless operations conducted every year. Rumour has it that the Prime Minster will declare another holiday in October. Sound familiar? Well how about these other fallacies lumped with it under the general heading of Changing The Subject: Attacking the Person: the person's character is attacked the person's circumstances are noted the person does not practise what is preached Appeal to Authority: the authority is not an expert in the field experts in the field disagree the authority was joking, drunk, or in some other way not being serious Anonymous Authority: the authority in question is not named Style Over Substance: the manner in which an argument (or arguer) is presented is felt to affect the truth of the conclusion  Want some more fallacies? Check these out: Here are the Fallacies Of Distraction: False Dilemma: two choices are given when in fact there are three options From Ignorance: because something is not known to be true, it is assumed to be false Slippery Slope: a series of increasingly unacceptable consequences is drawn Complex Question: two unrelated points are conjoined as a single proposition Here are the examples given for a False Dilemma: Either you're for me or against me. America: love it or leave it. Either support Meech Lake or Quebec will separate. Every person is either wholly good or wholly evil. Pretty cool, eh? (that’s a lame attempt at style over substance) Check out a whole bunch of fallacies at Stephen’s Guide To The Logical Fallacies, especially the fallacies of distraction. You’ll be hearing a lot of them in the days to come, officials say. Fool me once. 5:38:23 PM    comment []

When they let engineers get in the kitchen... Liquid nitrogen is cold. Very cold. So cold that if a drop falls on your hand, it feels like fire. So cold that it can turn a fresh flower into a thousand shards of broken glass. So cold that it can make half a gallon of ice cream in 30 seconds flat. 8:48:58 AM    comment []

Visiting Preacher: Come Back And Tell God – Enough With The Signs Already!   Sister Bubbles sent me this email:   I don't know what is going on in the Findlay-Bowling Green area besides that big lightning strike, but they have had some really awful weather since God "signed".  Parts of rt.65 had to be closed, the BG airport got hit, and Findlay is without power off & on.  It all started with someone asking for a sign from God.   Curious, I checked out the Findlay Courier, which reported the original story of the miraculous bolt…   Outages linger, high river water closes some roads By JOHN GRABER STAFF WRITER   Joan McAdoo spent Wednesday afternoon clearing out her refrigerator. Much of the food inside spoiled because her electricity went out around 4 a.m. Tuesday and wasn't restored until around 11:30 a.m. Wednesday. "I could've taken things across the street because across the street had power, but I didn't think it would take that long," said McAdoo, a Findlay resident. "How long does it take to restore power? I didn't think it would take 31 hours." She wasn't alone in her problem. Findlay still had about 150 American Electric Power (AEP) customers without power at 3 p.m. Wednesday. Shelly DiMattio, an AEP spokeswoman, said late Wednesday that she could not update that outage number until this morning. But the number of local AEP customers without power had dropped since Tuesday evening, when about 900 Findlay homes were without electricity after fierce thunderstorms hit the area Monday and Tuesday, downing trees and power poles. AEP has bigger trouble in the Tiffin area, where some 1,500 customers may continue to go without electricity into Friday afternoon, DiMattio said. The power company is in better shape in the Upper Sandusky area, where up to 180 AEP customers lost power, but were back on line Tuesday afternoon. 6:28:04 AM    comment []

Sausage Attack Overshadows Brewers' Win   Randall Simon's Sausage Attack Clouds the Milwaukee Brewers' 2-1 Win Over the Pittsburgh Pirates In a bizarre scene during the popular sausage race at Miller Park, the Pittsburgh first baseman took his bat and delivered a two-handed chop that knocked over a woman dressed in costume Wednesday night. Simon was booked for misdemeanor battery and released after the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Pirates 2-1 in 12 innings. He will meet with the district attorney's office Thursday, and it will be up to prosecutors to determine whether formal charges are filed. "It was very strange," Pirates outfielder Reggie Sanders said. The race is a fan favorite at Miller Park. Held between the sixth and seventh innings, people dress up as a bratwurst, hot dog, Polish sausage and Italian sausage and run around the field. As the group went past Pirates' third-base dugout, Simon reached over a railing and hit the Italian sausage character from behind, causing the 20-year-old woman wearing the outfit to tumble. When she fell, the woman portraying the hot dog also went down Major League Baseball is so exciting, I can’t understand why I don’t follow it anymore. There would have been a much bigger stink if he’d have used a corked bat or attacked the bratwurst. 4:41:58 AM    comment []