June 30
By now, this date is etched into the brain cells of every living creature on the planet, including terrorists. This is a terrible mistake and an example why MBAs should be kept in the private sector where they can sink or swim by their own wits. I’ve been involved in product launches before, at least a couple of times a year. There’s always a target date, just like this, but with one critical difference: It is restricted to the highest levels of security until the last few weeks. That buys you time to reach intermediary goals.
Witness Microsoft, pushing back the release of SP2 for Windows XP (I think it’s late August now) to make sure no gremlins are left hiding, that endless regression testing exorcises each. Back in the DOS days, they learned the hard way, otherwise known as the “southwestern face omelet.” (Since this blog sometimes masquerades as a food blog, the recipe is to substitute a red face for the red peppers, then add the raw eggs as usual). When the trade papers memed out the defects – mysterious crashes, hard drives trashed, loss of data integrity, etc. – they adjusted their release strategy. Likewise Intel, after the infamous FDIV flaw.
Of course, not every flaw can be anticipated given the complexity of computer systems, and eventually you have to announce your product. To help out here, the MBAs have developed a new wave of “rear garde” (probably named for a famous Admiral) actions. Rather than waste a paragraph on these black arts, I’ll ask you to let these two words soak in: Damage Control.
Whatever, you never etch a firm date in the public mind until you are certain it is feasible. Make absolutely certain all the pieces are in place before you even whisper the target date and, even then, it should be a matter of great apprehension to a reasonable mind. The more you assert the target date, the greater the anticipation you create, the more you eliminate your fallback strategies.
Descending to the charlatan level, remember the old stock marker pundit’s advice (I think I might mean Joe Granville): “Tell ‘em what but don’t tell ‘em when; tell ‘em when, but don’t tell ‘em what.” This secret knowledge has enhanced the careers of astrologers, politicians, and prostitutes since the days before language was invented.
In the light of this universal wisdom, take another look at June 30. Something is certain to happen on June 30, but what is it? Even Tony Blair, a man well-versed in the tricks of all three skill groups, isn’t quite sure because he’s saying something totally different than President Bush. This takes “don’t tell ‘em what” off the front pages and right into the closets. Exactly what is supposed to happen on June 30?
Whatever it is, we know Peter Jennings will be there. We know US Troops will stay there. We know that 30 Iraqis will be given full sovereignty and that Ahmed Chalabi didn’t make the cut this time. What then?
Free elections of course! When will those occur? Let’s check with Reuters (which, BTW, is pronounced like “Roy” – not like Roto-Rooter <click on the link to hear that incredibly cool jingle Simpsons' fans might notice a certain resemblance to Mr. Plow>)…
WASHINGTON, May 25 (Reuters) - The Bush administration is open to moving faster toward self-rule in Iraq by bringing forward the date for its first national elections from next January to later this year, people familiar with the deliberations said on Tuesday.
Senior administration officials said those determinations would have to be made by the United Nations and as-yet-to-be-named Iraqi leaders, though the United States is a key driving force behind the scenes.
Aha! This is where we get to the “don’t tell ‘em when” part! Free elections would mean that the majority Shiites would take over and promptly install a Muslim Theocracy based on the Iranian model. Building on the hatred incurred by having “shock and awe” and humiliating torture inflicted on them, they’ll probably tell the cowboy’s posse to get the hell out of Dodge. It would be very embarrassing for that to happen before the November elections, so don’t expect “later this year” to happen before those.
Therefore, sometime between June 30 and sometime after the election, both “what” and “when” will be transcoded into some into some yet to be defined data format. All we can say for sure is that “what’s on second.” The third baseman has a lifetime contract, but we get to vote who's on first - kinda like American Idol. In the meantime, be frightened; be very, very frightened.
6:16:51 PM 
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