Worst Case Scenario
As I opined in this space many months ago, the inability or unwillingness of the Bush administration to articulate the real objectives of its Iraq policy has left the door open to an outcome that satisfies the stated goals - "regime change" and disarmament - without addressing the fundamental problems, both economic and political. Now Time Magazine is reporting that our so-called allies, the Saudis, are plotting a coup to dislodge Saddam while extracting a pledge that other Iraqi officials would not be pursued by either the United States or the United Nations.
While sparing Iraq a lot of bloodshed and destruction, this plan also spares the Saudis the extreme inconvenience of a US-backed, perhaps ostensibly-democratic, and certainly economically-compliant regime in Bagdhad undermining Saudi aspirations for political and economic hedgemony in the Persian Gulf. It satisfies Bush's stated condition of regime change and disarmament, but is actually a worse scenario for the unstated policy objectives of stabilizing the oil supply, making a devestating show of US military force to intimidate other potential adversaries, and providing a lynchpin for future US action against Iran and eventually the Saudis themselves. The "coup" may even leave Saddam himself alive and at liberty in some Arab capital, surely not the way US planners drew it up. Worst of all from the perspective of legitimate US security concerns, it replaces a regime whose relationship with Al-Qaida was always suspect at best (and certainly pretextual to other policy interests) with one whose proximity to the source of Islamist fanaticism is undeniable.
However, because Bush wouldn't tell us or the world what he's really after in Iraq, he has little grounds to object to this Saudi scheme. Now the Saudis have called Bush's bluff, and if the Iraqi generals go along, we'll see Saddam replaced by a new dictator who owes his power to the good offices of the Royal Family and their Wahabbi supporters. All the arguments for containment, much less invasion, go away when Saddam packs his bags because Bush has made the issue so personal, and the US is unlikely to get much international support for keeping the pressure on because we've done so little to make friends in the international community. In fact, the Saudi plan so perfectly satisfies the agendas of everyone with an interest in the status quo (e.g., Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran and Russia) that it is bound to gain traction. If it does, and the "coup" comes to pass under the terms proposed by the Saudis, it will represent a castastrophic setback to US interests and a signal failure of American foreign policy.
Kudos to the Administration for setting us up for outcome not only worse than war, but most likely even worse for US interests than keeping Saddam in power. People need to recognize that it's not lack of toughness that put us in this situation - it's lack of brains.
11:59:38 AM 
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