    
How Iowa is going to shake down
The graphic above left is from pollingreport.com's home page. I'm a believer in polls when polls taken by different pollsters at about the same time show the same pattern, and these four polls, taken by different pollsters from Jan. 4 through Jan. 12, certainly show a pattern.
With only six days to go before the Iowa caucuses, unless something huge unexpectedly happens, I think Iowans are going to vote as the polls indicate they will: Howard Dean will come in first place, Dick Gephardt will come in second, John Kerry in third and John Edwards in fourth. Dean averages 27.5 percent in the four polls, Gephardt averages 22.25 percent, Kerry 17 percent and Edwards 10.5 percent. That's enough of a point spread between the candidates, I think, to be able to reliably predict how Iowans are going to decide only six days from now.
Iowa's major newspapers have endorsed only Kerry and Edwards -- and the newspapers' endorsements appeared after three of the four polls shown above were taken and during the time that one of the polls was being taken -- but it remains to be seen how much weight those newspapers' endorsements will carry with Iowan caucus-goers. My guess is that the papers' endorsements will be negligible.
Kerry and Dean are the only two of the nine candidates who are in the top three in both Iowa and New Hampshire polling. (Iowa's caucuses are on Monday and New Hampshire's primary is eight days later, on Jan. 27. In New Hampshire polling, Dean is No. 1, Wesley Clark is No. 2 and Kerry is No. 3.)
My guess is that the final showdown for the Democratic nomination is going to be among Clark, Dean and Kerry.
We can quite safely eliminate Carol Moseley Braun, Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton from the running. I think that Gephardt will quickly fizzle, especially if he doesn't win Iowa -- and the polls indicate that he won't. Joseph Lieberman also will fizzle -- he's not even bothering to campaign in Iowa and he's too conservative for Democrats to pick as their candidate. (His Zen-like "let's-be-like-Bush-to-beat-Bush" message just hasn't caught fire -- go figure.)
People like Edwards, but it's too early in his political career, I think, for him to be running for president; he doesn't have enough name recognition. (But, of course, by running for the Democratic nomination he's gaining name recognition for a future presidential bid.) I predict that Edwards will outlast Gephardt and probably Lieberman, too, but that the last three standing will be Clark, Dean and Kerry.
Update (Wednesday, Jan. 14): I guess I should keep my day job and not seek to become a prognosticator. Reports Reuters today:
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Democratic presidential front-runner Howard Dean held a shrinking three-point lead and John Kerry moved into a dead heat with Richard Gephardt for second place in Iowa five days before the state's caucuses, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released [today].
In a shifting race for the Democratic campaign's first big prize, Dean dropped four percentage points to 24 percent in the rolling three-day tracking poll and Kerry gained four points to tie Gephardt in second place at 21 percent.
North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained one percentage point to 15 percent, setting up a tight race to the finish among the four top contenders in Monday's caucuses.
"There's major movement every day in Iowa," pollster John Zogby said, with 13 percent of likely caucus-goers still undecided and all of the top candidates planning an intensive schedule of campaigning in the state in the final days.
The rolling poll of 501 likely caucus-goers was taken Sunday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The poll will continue each day through the caucuses.
Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, has gained six percentage points since the first poll was published Sunday and actually led in Monday's round of polling, while Dean had his worst day, Zogby said.
Kerry is contending with both Dean and Gephardt among what were considered some of their strongest voting blocs, challenging Dean for college-educated voters and Gephardt for union votes.
"This is officially a three-way race," Zogby said.
Wow! Now it looks like the only thing I can be sure of is that Edwards will come in fourth. Maybe those newspaper endorsements did help my man, John Kerry.
If Kerry wins Iowa, I will gloat like no blogger has ever gloated. Even a second-place finish in Iowa would be great for Kerry, as pundits have long expected Dean and Gephardt to take first and second place there.
10:46:04 PM 
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