Thursday, January 15, 2004

The bar graph above taken from pollingreport.com shows that John Kerry, represented by the gray bars, has been steadily rising in the last five MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers. Howard Dean, represented by the blue bars, peaked in the third poll but dropped in the fourth and fifth. Richard Gephardt, represented by the red bars, appears to have dropped off slightly and then stagnated. John Edwards, represented by the orange bars, rose in the past four polls, but it appears unlikely that he will overtake the other three candidates in the few days remaining before Monday's Iowa caucuses. Below, Kerry gives a thumbs up as he takes off in a helicopter for a campaign stop in Iowa today. (Associated Press photo)          Further promising numbers for Kerry MSNBC reports further numbers from Zogby's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers taken from Jan. 12 through Jan. 14, and the numbers look great for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. As I reported earlier today, Kerry has a slight lead (0.7 percent) in Iowa over his top two rivals, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt. The margin of error, however, makes Iowa a three-way race. (Some say it's a four-way race, with John Edwards' 17.1 percent, but my hunch is that he's going to remain in fourth place.) Other numbers from Zogby's Jan. 12 through Jan. 14 poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers (reported by MSNBC), however, strongly suggest that Kerry indeed leads the top four candidates. When those polled were asked who their second choice of Democratic presidential candidate would be, 21 percent said Kerry, 17 percent said Gephardt, 17 percent Dean and 15 percent Edwards. When asked to describe their overall opinion of each candidate as "very favorable," "somewhat favorable," "somewhat unfavorable," "very unfavorable," "not familiar [with the candidate]" or "not sure," poll respondents revealed that they like Kerry the best: A total of 76 percent found him "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable," while 12 percent found him "somewhat unfavorable" or "very unfavorable." A total of 75 percent found Gephardt favorable ("very favorable" or "somewhat favorable"), while 18 percent found him unfavorable ("somewhat unfavorable" or "very unfavorable"). A total of 71 percent found Edwards favorable, while 9 percent found him unfavorable.   A total of 70 percent found Dean favorable, while 23 percent found him unfavorable. Of these four candidates, Kerry got the highest "very favorable" rating, with 39 percent. (The next-highest "very favorable" rating was Gephardt's, 36 percent; the lowest "very favorable" rating was Dean's, 27 percent.) Of the four candidates, Dean got the highest "very unfavorable" rating, with 13 percent. (Edwards got the lowest "very unfavorable" rating, with 3 percent, and the next-lowest "very unfavorable" rating was Kerry, with 4 percent.) Iowans don't seem to be digging Dean, while they seem to be crazy about Kerry. I think it's safe now to officially predict a Kerry win in Iowa. A Kerry win in Iowa would prompt voters in New Hampshire to take another look at Kerry, who is No. 3 in the polls there now (behind Dean and Wesley Clark, who skipped Iowa), and I predict that if Kerry wins Iowa he will come in at least at No. 2 in New Hampshire. 10:45:41 PM    Comments []

John Kerry is barely on top in the latest Zogby poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers, with 21.6 percent to Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt's second-place tie at 20.9 percent. But recent Zogby polls of Iowans likely to go to the caucuses have shown Kerry continuing to rise and Dean and Gephardt continuing to drop. (Associated Press photo)  Kerry on top in latest Iowa Zogby poll OK, so statistically it's a three-way -- perhaps even a four-way -- race, but by the raw numbers alone, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry tops the latest Zogby poll of Iowans who say they're likely to attend Monday's caucuses. I can't remember when I was last able to report "Kerry on top," so indulge me. Anyway, Reuters reports:  DES MOINES, Iowa -- The Democratic presidential race in Iowa is a virtual three-way tie between John Kerry, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt four days before the state's caucuses, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released [today]. In the latest rolling three-day poll, Kerry registered 21.6 percent with Dean and Gephardt both at 20.9 percent. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained two percentage points to 17.1 percent, well within the poll's margin of error, putting all four top contenders in a statistical tie. "It's a three-way tie, and Kerry and Gephardt are now tied among union voters as Dean's labor support slips," Zogby said. With Edwards continuing to gain ground "this race is actually a four-way statistical dead heat. "We might see these candidates exchanging leads all the way to the end," Zogby said, with 11 percent of likely caucus-goers still undecided and many switching their support as they take a harder look at the choices ahead of Monday's contest. All of the candidates plan an extensive schedule of campaigning in Iowa in the race's final days. Dean and Gephardt have been exchanging heated attacks in the race to the finish. The rolling poll of 502 likely caucus-goers was taken Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The poll will continue each day until Monday's caucuses. The polling was concluded before Wednesday night's news that former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun would drop out of the race and throw her support to Dean.... Dean and Gephardt have battled back and forth for months for the top spot in polls in Iowa, the first big contest in the nominating race, but the late charges by Edwards and Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, have scrambled the Democratic picture. Dean, the former Vermont governor, still holds a large but shrinking lead over retired Gen. Wesley Clark in polls in New Hampshire, which has a Jan. 27 primary one week after Iowa. Gephardt, the congressman from neighboring Missouri who won Iowa during his first presidential bid in 1988, must win Iowa to remain in the race.... Polling in Iowa is complicated by the unique nature of the caucus system, which requires participants to leave their homes on a typically bitter cold night and gather with neighbors for hours before publicly declaring their support for a candidate. The ability to identify and turn out supporters is critical to each of the campaigns. The Zogby poll only included respondents who said they were likely to attend the caucuses. More important than the numbers, I think, are the trends that the Zogby polls of Iowans are showing: Kerry and Edwards are rising while Dean and Gephardt are falling, and Edwards, with only four days before the caucuses, seems to be a safe distance behind Kerry. Kerry has a very good shot at taking Iowa. Team Dean must be shitting its pants.  7:26:21 AM    Comments []