Robert's Virtual Soapbox
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Thursday, January 22, 2004

What a difference Iowa makes

Tonight we had the largest group we've ever had at the Sacramento John Kerry MeetUp. Not as many as go to the Sacramento Howard Dean MeetUps (or used to go to the Dean MeetUps, anyway), I'm sure, but, unlike The Cult of Dean, whose members are members only because there are lots of other members, we Kerryites aren't fixated on numbers. We're fixated on substance and on beating George W. Bush in November. (Thank God that the Iowan caucus-goers were, too.)

People who were at the pub where we held the MeetUp tonight who weren't there for the MeetUp but saw the Kerry stuff and heard us talking about Kerry asked for bumper stickers, signs and information. They gave us their e-mail addresses so we can add them to the e-mailing list. Two weeks ago it was difficult to give away Kerry paraphernalia; now, it's in demand. Two weeks ago I didn't bother to bring up John Kerry to anyone because no one wanted to talk about a candidate who hadn't yet proven himself in at least one primary season election. Now, people are quite receptive to hearing about John Kerry. One hundred eighty degrees. (The Deanies must be feeling the same.) 

Part of me is very happy that Kerry is getting the attention that he deserves. Another part of me -- a smaller part of me -- wishes that I still had Kerry to myself and a small (by comparison) band of supporters, because then it was more special. (It's not exactly special to be a Dean supporter when there are [were...] millions of them, is it? Funny how millions of people can think that they're cool when there are millions of others just like them. Dean supporters are as unique as are ants or SUV owners.)     

We're going to have to switch to a larger venue for next month's MeetUp because after Kerry wins New Hampshire and other states, we're going to have an even larger group and the pub won't work (it barely worked tonight).

And Kerry's ascendency is going to mean a lot more work; it would be easier if he had he tanked, like he was supposed to. Oh, well; getting rid of George W. Bush will be worth the work.

Meanwhile, I'm trying to have sympathy for the Dean lemmings, and I have moments of true sympathy, even empathy, for them, but they've been so obnoxious for months that it's difficult to sustain any sort of -pathy for them. They were so fucking self-assured of Dean's inevitability. It was like the Borg -- resistance is futile, they pretty much told us.

Yet the Dean Borg imploded on Monday night. I am surprised myself at how quickly the collapse has been. Only the most entrenched members of The Cult of Dean still think he has a chance after the entire world saw him lose control in Iowa on Monday night (and keep seeing and/or hearing the now-infamous barbaric yawp over and over and over again). Dean and his lemmings try to put a positive spin on The Moment, but the fact remains that millions of people watched or listened to the man who would be president lose it, and those who didn't catch it live, like I did, caught it later (over and over and over again). 

I didn't think it would end quite like this for Dean, with the barbaric yawp heard around the world; clearly, Dean and his lemmings didn't either. I am as surprised as they are. I was resigned to my guy losing and watching Howard Dean ensure another four years of George W. Bush. (I am sooooo fucking glad that Dean had his little career-ending public spectacle before he got the Democratic presidential nomination and not after. I can't believe that after Monday's fiasco, Dean and his lemmings still insist that Dean is the one to take on Bush. Even the smug members of the liberal Internet media [that's redundant] are smart enough to back slowly away from Dean.)

Anyway, so now my guy is on top. It's still a shock. A good shock -- it's always better to be on top -- but a shock nonetheless, after the Dean Borg (which includes the members of the liberal Internet media, who still aren't giving Kerry his due -- no surprise there) had all of us conditioned that Dean would win the nomination. (OK, he still could win the nomination. I learned today, thanks to Jan over at Secular Blasphemy, that Bill Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and still got the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination. However, Dean is no Clinton; Clinton would never publicly let out a barbaric yawp.)

So these are the thoughts of a Kerry supporter. If you want to read the tortured thoughts of a Dean supporter, go on over to Dave Cullen's. Dave likes to bare his soul to his readers. Quite an exhibitionist. I warn you that it's a bit like seeing a bad automobile accident, but I think that's why I visit Dave's weblog -- for the same reason you visit a site like rotten.com: It's unsettling, but at the same time compelling.

This is an actual excerpt from a recent Cullen confessional [material in brackets is mine]:

I did something I'm slightly ashamed of Tuesday morning. I disowned him [Howard Dean] for a few minutes.

...I was still numb from the stunning "loss." [It was a real loss, Dave; no need for the quotation marks.] Distant third sure felt like a loss, though it was a lot better than fourth for a homeboy -- at least it wasn't our guy headed back to Missouri to bow out. I still hadn't cry [sic] -- still haven't actually -- never did figure out quite how to mourn it....

So it crept up on me in a weird way, with a bad taste, knowing it didn't have to be that way.

All Monday night, I felt numb. Couldn't really sort out anything. Saw my new friends at the party, and they had the same pained expressions -- not that Dean lost so much as we knew why he lost. We had raised a huge team and had no idea what to do with it. We had focused on all the wrong factors. (Like the media, stupid. Like our man's image on TV. Like precinct captains. Like...) [They still focus on everything but their candidate. They refuse to consider that Howard Dean is what's wrong with Howard Dean.]

...I had no intention of disowning him, I just didn't want to own him right that moment. The hotel was packed with politicos, the airport would be swarming with them, I just didn't want to take their ribbing for a few hours, I didn't want to hear their snickers, I just didn't want to carry that weight again for a little while. I had set my own identity aside for a long weekend, announced myself in every way to every human being I contacted as A DEANIAC! I'M A DEANIAC! CAN I GET YOU TO TALK ABOUT HOWARD DEAN?

...I felt so ashamed. If ever there was a time to demonstrate we were not beaten, it was here and now. It wasn't just politicos, it was just as many press men and women, and it was obvious the Kerrys and the Edwards were walking proud and ready to return to battle. The Big Dean Army was suddenly almost entirely MIA.

Dave has so little honest feedback (or good feedback) that he doesn't even know that he comes across like a cult member. (At least one writer compared the Dean lemmings, in their orange ski caps, to the Hare Krishnas, in their saffron robes.) Dave posts stuff like this and people actually write him encouraging comments ("encouraging" as in encouraging him in his delusions) instead of trying to kick his sad, sorry ass back to reality.

I mean, I support John Kerry, but my entire fucking identity is not wrapped up in John Kerry and never for a moment do I cease being Robert Crook (whereas Dave writes, "I had set my own identity aside for a long weekend"), and I think that this is a huge (maybe the huge) difference between Kerryites and Deanians -- we Kerryites haven't fucking lost perspective or our minds, as have Dean and his supporters.

I think that's why the Deanies don't find Kerry appealing: Kerry would make an awful cult leader. He couldn't get two people to drink the Kool-Aid, whereas Dean could get millions to do it. Conversely, that's why we Kerryites don't find Dean appealing -- because he could get millions of people to drink the Kool-Aid. 

I didn't set out to talk about Dean and Dave -- I meant to write about life after Iowa -- but I guess you can't talk about Kerry without talking about Dean (and vice-versa), and when I think of a typical Dean lemming I think of Dave. Dave will think I'm picking on him, but I'm not. He's the most prominent Dean-supporting Salon blogger, and he has the brilliance or the stupidity -- I'm not sure which (maybe it's a bit of both) -- to post on his weblog his innermost thoughts and feelings, which someone like me could cut and paste.


10:27:35 PM    Comments []

U.S. Senator and Democratic Presidential Candidate John Kerry (D-MA) smiles during a speech at Daniel Webster College in Nashua, New Hampshire. Kerry is trying to rally support in New Hampshire for the 27 January 2004 Democratic primary.(AFP/Getty Images/Jessica Rinaldi)

This really dorky photo of John Kerry is dedicated to fellow Salon blogger Dave Cullen. I hope it makes him feel better about Howard Dean's situation, and it should help make this weblog more fair and balanced. (AFP photo) 

Kerry No. 1 in New Hampshire; Clark slipping

The latest Zogby poll (Jan. 19-21) of New Hampshire has John Kerry at 27 percent, Howard Dean at 24 percent, Wesley Clark at 15 percent, John Edwards at 8 percent and Joseph Lieberman at 6 percent. New Hampshire's Democratic presidential primary, the second contest in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, is on Tuesday.

I expect Kerry to win New Hampshire (well, I already did, but now I expect him to win New Hampshire even more so) and Lieberman to soon go the way of Richard Gephardt.

Clark, it seems to me, needs to do better than No. 3 in New Hampshire to remain a strong candidate. Pollster John Zogby notes that "Clark continues to lose a point a day."

John Edwards' strong No. 2 finish in Iowa doesn't seem to have boosted him much in New Hampshire.

Dean, it seems, is going to languish for a while. A good argument for euthanasia (metaphorically speaking, of course).


7:10:55 AM    Comments []

Democratic presidential hopeful, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean rolls up his sleeves before addressing supporters during his caucus night party in West Des Moines, Iowa in this Jan. 19, 2004 file photo. Howard Dean is trying to get past the speech he delivered after the Iowa caucuses, but the image lingers among New Hampshire voters in what could be a serious problem for the campaign. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)  U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean defiantly lists off the states where he will continue to fight for the Democratic presidential nomination as he concedes defeat in the 2004 Iowa Caucuses to rival candidate U.S. Senator John Kerry in West Des Moines, Iowa January 19, 2004. Dean vowed 'We will continue to fight.' REUTERS/Jim Bourg 

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean moments before he delivers the barbaric yawp that was heard around the world. (Associated Press and Reuters photos)

Out with a barbaric yawp

If Howard Dean goes down in flames -- and I think that he is going down in flames as I write this sentence -- it can be said that he went out not with a bang, but with a barbaric yawp.

Yup.

It's stunning to think that after months of hard work, after months of collecting millions of dollars, after all of the blood, sweat and tears that thousands of volunteers and staffers have put into a political campaign, it can all come crashing down because of one short, impassioned address.

It's stunning to think that, but it's probably not entirely accurate.

I think that historians, when they point to the one thing that sunk Howard Dean's campaign -- and history likes to oversimplify like this -- will point to his concession address (you can't really call it a speech) in Iowa. (For a video of his concession address -- a rather poor video, but a video -- click here.)

I don't think his Iowa concession address is the one thing that destroyed Dean's campaign, but rather is the straw that broke the camel's back. You just don't recover from having looked like a raving madman with millions of people listening and watching. That's something that even Karl Rove couldn't spin.

For months now Team Dean has said that The Anger Thing is a bunch of bullshit, an invention of The Media and of Dean's Enemies. I think that primary voters in New Hampshire were willing to give Dean the benefit of the doubt.

Until the barbaric yawp that escaped from his mouth at the end of his concession address Monday night in Iowa.

I can get over everything he said (words, I mean) in his concession address. He'd just come in a distant third in Iowa, a state that he was long expected to win. I don't blame him for being emotional. Not only was he let down, but thousands of his volunteers standing before him were let down. I was OK with his concession address, to which I listened live on National Public Radio. I was OK with him ticking off the names of the states he would win. (Typical political rhetoric meant to fire up the troops.) I was OK with it all until --

-- until he made that barbaric yawp.

Did I really just fucking hear him make a noise like a charging animal? I asked myself in disbelief. The NPR reporter was taken aback, too, but she let it pass.

Initially I thought that the barbaric yawp thing, surreal as it was, would pass, as the NPR reporter had let it pass.

But the barbaric yawp hasn't passed. It's the new buzz.

There's even a Howard Dean barbaric yawp dance mix. (I think there are at least two or three different mixes floating around out there, and it isn't just an Internet thing -- I even heard part of one mix on NPR.)

Salon ran a blurb about the barbaric yawp titled "Mad How." The writer notes that "Dean's speech last night -- specifically one moment of hoarse yelling -- may haunt him forever."

According to the writer of the Salon blurb, Katie Couric asked Dean on The Today Show, "Do you think things got a little out of control and you got a little over the top? Can you explain that?" (I can see passive-aggressive, former cheerleader and former sorority chick Couric wrinkle her nose as she asks that question in her juvenile tone. She likes to ask such questions while pretending to be so damned sweet. Anyway, the Salon writer doesn't say what Dean's response was.)

The barbaric yawp story isn't going away. Even The Associated Press ran a story on it titled "Dean's Raucous Iowa Speech Lives On."

The AP reports:

WASHINGTON -- Howard Dean is trying to get past the impassioned speech he delivered after the Iowa caucuses, but the image lingers on the Internet, late-night talk shows and in what could be a serious problem for the campaign -- among New Hampshire voters.

Political analysts and pollsters are watching to see if Monday night's enthusiastic, fist-pumping speech becomes one of those famous presidential campaign moments etched indelibly in the public's mind. Dean's own advisers privately acknowledge the speech was a major blunder that has hurt his standing in polls.

In the three days leading up to the Iowa caucuses, Dean's favorable rating among New Hampshire voters dropped from 59 percent to 39 percent in a sample of 302 voters Tuesday night, according to Dick Bennett of the American Research Group of Manchester, N.H. The size of a one-night sample is small enough that such results have to be viewed with caution, however.

In several tracking polls out Wednesday, Dean and John Kerry were locked in a statistical tie, with Kerry surging and Wesley Clark close behind both of them. Dean was once far ahead in the state. A tracking poll is an ongoing poll with totals from the last two or three nights combined to produce a nightly result.

Bennett said his phone operators heard from voters who said they were surprised by Dean's speech. "That thing has legs," he said.

"I think it crystallized a lot of the concerns voters in Iowa had as well as voters in New Hampshire had about Dean's potential temperament as a president," added Andrew Smith, a political scientist and pollster at the University of New Hampshire....

Gerry Chervinsky, who is polling New Hampshire for The Boston Globe and WBZ-TV, said Dean's favorable rating had dropped 11 points, from 67 percent to 56 percent, in the last week. He said the drop wouldn't all be attributable to Monday night's remarks, but added: "That speech could not have helped him in any way."

...Dean explained the enthusiastic speech Wednesday, saying: "I was rallying a group of 3,500 kids who'd come to Iowa to work for me and were waving American flags. It was a pretty emotional, pretty terrific scene.

"They worked their hearts out for three weeks. I thought I owed them everything I had, and I gave it everything I had," Dean said.

Democratic consultant James Carville, who was in New Hampshire attending campaign events, said of Dean's Iowa speech, "It hurt him."

Pat Buchanan, a former Republican presidential candidate, said: "Dean's Iowa defeat was a real setback to him, but his post-game commentary was a disaster. That tape will be on every national talk show; I don't think it's survivable."

Late-night comedy shows provide campaign news to growing numbers of people, according to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. One-fifth of young adults said they regularly learn about the campaign from such programs.

When David Letterman rolled the video Tuesday, Dean's head appeared to explode at the end of the speech. "Did you see Howard Dean ranting and raving?" he asked the audience. "Here's a little tip, Howard: cut back on the Red Bull."

On his program, Jay Leno quipped: "I'm not an expert in politics, but I think it's a bad sign when your speech ends with your aides shooting you with a tranquilizer gun."

Jon Stewart introduced the clip on his show by saying, "That whole 'Dean anger thing,' it's a bum rap. The guy has his emotions under control."

Charles Jones, a presidential scholar, said Dean's speech contributes to the notion that he's not quite ready for prime time....

I don't think it's fair that one gaffe should be the end of a campaign, but the barbaric yawp hasn't been Dean's only gaffe, and as his gaffes go it was his piece de resistance. 

The Dean campaign repeatedly assures us that Howard does not have a problem with self-control -- and then comes the yawp.

Dean went into Iowa already crippled after someone had dug up an appearance he'd made on Canadian television four years ago bashing Iowa's caucus system. (Hey, Team Dean can always blame Canada!) Dean then stumbled into New Hampshire after having sounded like a raging caveman to an audience of millions the night before in Iowa. He had shot himself in the foot -- again -- before he even set foot in New Hampshire. (With the way he sabotages himself, how did he ever become governor of even a teeny-tiny state?)

History, I suspect, will record that it was the barbaric yawp that sank Dean's bid for the presidency.

That's only part of the story. It wasn't just the barbaric yawp. It was a series of gaffes, and the barbaric yawp, I think, wasn't just a barbaric yawp, but was a moment of truth. 


12:37:46 AM    Comments []



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