Sunday, January 25, 2004

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is poised to win New Hampshire's primary on Tuesday. Polls show him beating former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by 7 percent to 22 percent. (AFP photo) KERRY WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE! Just practicing for Tuesday night. While the latest Zogby New Hampshire poll (Jan. 22-24) shows Howard Dean to be too close for comfort -- the poll puts John Kerry at 30 percent and Dean at 23 percent -- the American Research Group's latest New Hampshire poll (Jan. 22-24) puts Kerry at 38 percent and Dean at 16 percent, giving Kerry a huge 22 percent lead over Dean. (In the AMG poll, Dean actually comes in third, with Wesley Clark at second with 17 percent.) The truth, I'm guessing, lies somewhere between the two polls, but even with only a 7 percent lead over Dean, Kerry is fairly safe going into a primary election that is less than 48 hours away. My guess is that many New Hampshire undecideds and Dean leaners, when they are about to actually cast their vote on Tuesday, will be haunted by The Barbaric Yawp, and will heavily consider whether Dean is the candidate they really want to put up against "President" Bush. Kerry did far better in Iowa than any of the polls that I saw had indicated he would -- he won Iowa by more than 10 percent above what any of the polls had prognosticated -- and that was before The Barbaric Yawp. My hunch is that, as he did in Iowa, Kerry will perform far above what Zogby's polling indicates. 1:39:36 PM    Comments []

John Kerry (shown above playing hockey in New Hampshire yesterday) is the only contender for the Democratic presidential nomination who beat "President" Bush in a recent Newsweek poll. (AFP photo)  Kerry tops national polls, best against Bush Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's win in the Iowa caucuses and his front-runner status in New Hampshire's primary on Tuesday have catapulted him to the top of the national polls. He also does better than his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination in polls that match the Democratic candidates against "President" Bush. In a Newsweek nationwide poll of 428 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic taken Jan. 22 and 23, in which the respondents were asked which of the seven candidates they want to win the Democratic presidential nomination, Kerry garnered 30 percent, John Edwards 13 percent, Howard Dean and Wesley Clark 12 percent each and Joseph Lieberman 7 percent. In a FOX News/Opinion Dynamic nationwide poll of 336 registered Democrats taken Jan. 21 and 22, also in which the respondents were asked which of the seven candidates they want to win the Democratic presidential nomination, Kerry got 29 percent, Dean 17 percent, Edwards 13 percent, Clark 11 percent and Lieberman 5 percent. In a Newsweek nationwide poll of 1,006 registered voters taken Jan. 22 and 23 (see graph above), in which respondents were asked whether they would vote for "President" Bush or the candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, 49 percent said they'd vote for Kerry and 46 percent said they'd vote for Bush in a Bush-Kerry matchup. In a Bush-Edwards matchup, Bush got 49 percent and Edwards 46 percent. In a Bush-Dean matchup, Bush got 50 percent to Dean's 45 percent. In a Bush-Clark matchup, Bush got 48 percent to Clark's 47 percent, and in a Bush-Lieberman matchup, Bush got 49 percent to Lieberman's 45 percent.           In a FOX News/Opinion Dynamics nationwide poll of 900 registered voters, Kerry got 42 percent to Bush's 49 percent in a Bush-Kerry matchup. Edwards got 39 percent to Bush's 51 percent in a Bush-Edwards matchup; Dean got 34 percent to Bush's 54 percent in a Bush-Dean matchup; Clark got 37 percent to Bush's 51 percent in a Bush-Clark matchup.   Kerry's not doing badly for a candidate who just two weeks ago was considered dead in the water. 2:24:15 AM    Comments []