Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry campaigns in Rochester, New Hampshire yesterday. In New Hampshire polls conducted Jan. 24-26, he has a 10-point lead over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. (Reuters photo)
Kerry takes New Hampshire today
John Kerry goes into the New Hampshire primary today with the numbers solidly behind him.
Zogby's latest New Hampshire poll (Jan. 24-26): Kerry, 37 percent; Howard Dean, 24 percent; John Edwards, 12 percent; Wesley Clark and Joseph Lieberman, 9 percent each.
Pollster John Zogby notes:
In the final analysis, voters raised doubts about Howard Dean. Through the second half of 2003, New Hampshire voters indicated that they were angry but overwhelmingly felt that President Bush was a shoo-in for re-election. But as in Iowa, the closer Democrats got to actually voting, there was a renewed sense that President Bush could and must be defeated.
In our final sample, just about half (49 percent) told us that Dean was unlikely to defeat the President (that is 15 points worst than his worst day in Iowa). At the same time, only 15 percent said it was unlikely that any other Democrat in the race could defeat the president.
Howard Dean was the man of the year, but that was 2003. In 2004, electability has become the issue and John Kerry has benefited by developing a sharper message, by his veteran status, and -- this is particularly significant -- New Hampshire Democrats tell us that he looks like a president.
...in the final analysis, New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message....
I have never gotten a New Hampshire primary wrong....
The American Research Group's latest New Hampshire poll (Jan. 24-26) shows similar results: Kerry, 35 percent; Dean, 25 percent; Edwards, 15 percent; Clark, 13 percent; Lieberman, 6 percent.
Kerry handily takes New Hampshire today. Lieberman is next to be booted off the island. Then Dean and then Clark or then Clark and then Dean. (I'm not including Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton in that prediction. Sharpton vows to stay in the race, so I'm guessing that we'll see Dennis bail out before Al does.)
7:36:52 AM 
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