Frost advisory tonite, it says in a red banner on the normal blue backdrop of today’s local “Weather on the 8’s”.

A portent of potential damage.  A veiled threat.

Not a “Frost Warning”, which is clear and present danger of frost overnight.  No, it’s only an Advisory.  Is this like a Tornado Watch, in which conditions are right, keep your eyes peeled for a tornado to develop (but there's not one now)?

I have to make my own assessment here, based on my knowledge and experience.  First frost date for this area is 25-SEP; we’re passed it, so it’s highly possible.  The weather map shows areas half a day west of here only posting 30 to 32 degrees for overnight lows, frost-freeze conditions.  Skies overhead are clear right now.  Yup, could be frost.

But the wind is high, at 14 miles per hour; the daytime high temp hasn’t yet been made, so I don’t know if we’ll make a 20+degree spread between 32 degrees and today’s high.  The radar shows clouds headed this way, arriving around midnight.  These all indicate no frost this evening.  It’s highly improbable, given these symptoms.

Some precautions are warranted; I’ll bring in the tenderest plants, like my orchids.  But I’m not going to do anything rash, like bring in the 6-foot tall fig tree off the front porch.  The sudden shock of excessive warmth indoors and the stress of moving it might cause just as much damage as a little touch of frost.  Yeah, a wrong guess could cost me - I lost the last several bushels of a tomato crop a few years ago because I didn't cover them, but I've been doing this for nearly 20 years now.  Long enough to know what I'm talking about; long enough to understand both the downside and upside.

Guess that’s like this “Iraq Advisory” situation…I have conflicting data which both supports and undermines a pre-emptive strike.  I simply don’t have enough convincing data that persuades me step up my response, to start nagging my Senators to support the President.  The fact that the previous guy in office says that Al Qaeda should remain our number one target also keeps me in check; this guy had access to all the data and executive power for eight years, got to believe he’s speaking from a position of knowledge and authority.   And the fact that no other country is jumping up and down about Iraq also concerns me – even Blair couldn’t pull off a convincing persuasion for immediate force.  It’s not as if the U.S. is the only country with something to lose; it’s not as if we have the only intelligence watching Iraq.  I have to believe somebody would have more convincing information to present right now or should already have presented, if there was a clear and present danger.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m taking precautions, been to the Red Cross site and prepared for an emergency like a bad storm (been prepared since Y2K, actually).  But I’m not going to change my stance – a measured and constructive approach is warranted here, the stakes too high, the long-term fall out from rash behavior is staggering.

Mr. Bush is going to try to persuade me (and you) otherwise this evening.  I’m going to need to see some real hard facts, a very good, tough-to-beat poker hand.  And I’d like to see an extremely cool head and poker face as well, like Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis.  It’s going to take all of that before this household thinks about moving to “Iraq Warning” status.  Let’s see how Mr. Bush plays his card tonight.

4:27:09 PM    comment []