27. september 2002

Iraq — A Rational Approach The dominating question in the news over the last months has been Bush's plans to attack Iraq to obtain 'regime change.' World opinion seem to be split between conservative Americans on one side, and leftist Americans on the other side, along with most of the rest of the world. However, world opinion is also split, between those who do not want to attack Iraq in either case, and those who will try stringent arms inspections first, and are open to the option of war later. My question is: on what do people base their opinions on this subject? Quite undecided on this subject myself, I wanted to try to create a decision tree, vaguely modelled on what I learned in business school way back when. In it, probabilities and values (price, if you will) are applied to the various outcomes of whatever decisions are made. Rationally, you should go for the decision with the highest number. As I see it, the west can choose inaction, a stringent arms control regime that retains the option of war later, and an all-out attack now. What will be the consequences of all options here are the subject of fierce debates. The problem of course remains. What is the "value" of a successful vs an unsuccessful war with Iraq? I have tried to attach some values, of course open for accusations of being pretty arbitrary, leaving this a pretty futile exerise in Excel. Also, what are the probabilies? What is the chance that Saddam will remain passive and un-threatening to its neighbours and to the west if he is not removed? As I see it, the "what-if" quality of this tool makes it valuable in making you aware of the choices and options available. Fill in your preferences and see how the numbers change. Here is a simple example decision tree following the so-called "laplace critera:" not knowing the probabilities, we attach similar probablities to them. Does it tell us something we don't already know? Not really. First, many will not agree that chances for a successful and an unsuccessful war are not equal. Some will say that the "values" for consequences above are unreasonable one way or another. After playing around with the spreadsheet for a while, I will have to say it strengthened my own tentative conclusion that we should first try arms inspections, but that this requires a real, credible threat of force. But perhaps everybody will find their own preconceived opinions confirmed after applying their own values and probabilities? You can download and play with the spreadsheet yourself (Excel 2000). If you don't have Excel, Microsoft provides a free viewer. 10:19:38 PM    comment []

Silent No More Victims of sexual abuse in Jehovahs Witness congregations are marching against the sect's policies of covering up cases of abuse today Sept 27th, in New York City. Sexual scandals have rocked several religious organisations over the last year. But unlike the Roman Catholics, this high-control sect refuses to admit any wrongdoing. The sect has repeatedly excommunicated victims to protect the predators, and primarily, to protect the image of the organisation itself. The sect's practices of covering up sexual abuse of children have recently been exposed on NBC Dateline and BBC Panorama (watch in RA) and in numerous newspaper and magazine articles around the world. The victims, marching under the silentlambs umbrella, will be silent no more. PS: You can read an excellent, personal article about the topic of child abuse among Jehovah's Witnesses in Mike Pence's "Dances With Cactus" Blog. 5:02:35 PM    comment []

Sahara shrinking, not growing We've all heard that the world's greatest desert, Sahara, is growing rapidly. Now it appears that Sahara has indeed been shrinking, not growing, since the mid-80s. New Scientist is reporting that extensive studies of satellite data shows that Northern Africa is getting greener. "New Scientist has learned that a separate analysis of satellite images completed this summer reveals that dunes are retreating right across the Sahel region on the southern edge of the Sahara desert. Vegetation is ousting sand across a swathe of land stretching from Mauritania on the shores of the Atlantic to Eritrea 6000 kilometres away on the Red Sea coast." Expect far less attention in the press about these good news than what the old, pessimistic reports have received. Doom & gloom news is for some reason far more popular than the opposite. And  environmentalists will no doubt keep repeating the already-debunked claims about Sahara spreading for decades to come. 3:56:00 PM    comment []

What Century was that again? "An independent congressman, Eittel Ramos, challenged Mr Waisman to a duel with pistols, saying the vice president had insulted him after he criticised comments by President Alexander Toledo's wife" (BBC News) You have to admit that politics is less boring in Peru. 5:05:13 AM    comment []

Well, it can work that way... "Researchers say one in five young German teenagers believes tampons are a form of contraception." (Ananova) 1:48:59 AM    comment []

© Copyright 2002 Jan Haugland. Last update: 01.10.02; 02:19:52.