Objectives of the Moscow Terrorists
The actions of the Chechen rebels holding ~600 hostages in the Moscow theater looks erratic and confusing.
Their actions depend on their objectives, obviously. If the terrorists seriously is a suicide group intending to blow up the theatre with everybody inside unless Russia withdraws from Chechnya, this looks bad for the hostages indeed. Obviously, no such demand, or anything close to it, will be met. In such a case, the best, or least bad, option for Russian security forces would be to attempt a raid.
Thus, if the terrorists are not really on a suicide operation, the terrorists need to have the Russian authorities think they are determined and serious, but not that they are so unpredictable they will blow up the building at any time.
So far, the operation looks very PR minded. They chose a very high profile target and got massive publicity. They have many foreigners hostage, and will not release them as first indicated. Thus they held the full attention of both national and international media. By releasing a few hostages piecemeal they keep media attention, and can do that for a long time.
The best the terrorists can hope for now, except martyrdom, is to leave Moscow as free men. Most likely, they would be allowed to do that. In that case they have accomplished to humiliate Vladimir Putin and the Russian security forces, and to bring extra media attention to the war in Chechnya. Perhaps they think this is a good accomplishment. Chechen seperatists do not have a history of suicide operations, but given their alleged support from Al Queda, it is certainly not impossible that has now changed.
A tragic ending for this siege will certainly not make the Russians less determined to solve the Chechen problem the hard way. And I doubt it will make the powerful nations in the west less likely to look the other way over Russia's human rights abuses.
2:10:12 AM
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