10. november 2003

Putin appoints Gen. Kvashnin chief of intelligence A long-time principle of Russian leadership has been to distribute military and security powers among several individuals to avoid any of them becoming too powerful. Most importantly, the powers of the security forces (FSB, earlier KGB) had to be balanced towards the armed forces, the former being the state's eyes, the latter being the state's muscle. Now Putin has appointed Army General Anatoly Kvashnin (picture), chief of staff of Russia’s armed forces, as 'intelligence czar,' giving him total control of both the armed forces, with its intelligence services (GRU), as well as the FSB. He will be the second most powerful man in Russia. In the west Kvashnin is mostly known as the man who stunned NATO (especially Gen. Wesley Clark!) by taking Pristina airport during the Kosovo war. This story apparently went under the radar of the entire English-speaking press corpse, and I could only find it on Debka. It will be hard to believe this is not related to Putin's recent show-down with oligarch and Yukos oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who is imprisoned for fraud. Practically everybody in the west (except Berlusconi) sees this as an unhealthy development for democracy in Russia. I have not really made up my mind yet. Putin is certainly amassing personal power, in a long Russian tradition, and the question is really what he is going to do with it. He is cleaning out the old guard in the intelligence and the military, no doubt worried that their loyalties may not be with the direction of modern Russia. Putin is quite west-oriented, but he certainly has great ambitions for Russia that may put it in conflict with the US and the EU. He has a common interest with the US in the war on Islamist terror, but beyond that, it may be hard to predict what route Russia will go down. 9:59:03 PM    comment []  trackback []

Al-Qaeda's economic war against Saudi Arabia Obviously, the Saudi royal family has been in Bin Laden's sights for a long time. He considers the Saudi Kingdom, home of the holiest sites of Muslims, a western protectorate. His main objective all along is to purify the Muslim world from all western influence, and from all "heresy." Thus, he goes after Saudi Arabia's economy. The message in the latest attack is to all expats living and working in the kingdom, even Muslims and Arabs: Go home! According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), 71% of the country's employees are non-Saudi. Just a small part of these are from the west, however. There are large contigents of Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis doing almost all work in the country. Without them, the conomy will crumble, taking (or so al-Qaeda hopes) the ruling kingdom down with it. It is therefor a reasionable guess that after this attack on Arab expats, the terrorists will turn on the large communities of workers from east Asia, who are already very uneasy about the security situation. This is really classic 'idealist' terrorist tactics. The marxist terrorists in Europe in the 1970s had the idea that their terror, kidnapping and killing business leaders and politicians, would destroy capitalism, and on the ashes of ruin their communist worker's paradise could be built. Al-Qaeda should not be underestimated, by all means, but stratageically they cannot win. They are up against practically the sum total of economic interests in the world, and to win they rely on a culturally postulated superhuman agent (that is, God), who is otherwise known for being on the side of the biggest batallions (if we ask Napoleon, who should know). Like all extremists, they do not really understand social processes and the mechanisms of human society, instead believing in a highly simplified model, dividing the world into black and white, evil and good (if you now think 'Bush' bite your tongue). That, of course, does not mean the terrorists are not very dangerous. Killing fellow Muslims to wage economical warfare against even the widely detested Saudi regime may prove to be a serious mistake. Hopefully, the Saudi leaders will use this opportunity to preempt further public support for terrorists by starting to move towards democracy. If they don't, the corrupt royals will find themselves between a rock and a hard place. 7:54:47 PM    comment []  trackback []

US Supreme Court will hear Guantanamo Bay cases The Supreme justices will hear the appeals of Afghan war detanees at Guantanamo Bay. The justices said in a written order they would decide whether U.S. "courts lack jurisdiction to consider challenges to the legality of the detention of foreign nationals captured abroad in connection with hostilities and incarcerated at the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, Cuba." Asking the top court to limit its own power may be a bit tricky for the Bush administration. This should be an interesting case, scheduled for a hearing early next year. 5:53:59 PM    comment []  trackback []

Depression Dept What other people accomplished when they were your age. Enter age, and learn what a loser you are. Heh. 8:16:16 AM    comment []  trackback []

Has al-Qaeda lost the plot? The unexpected terrorist assault on a residential area in Riyadh Saturday, which injured more than a 100 people and killed at least 17, including several children, marks a dramatic change in al-Qaeda tactics, if this plot can really be attributed to the leadership of the rather loosely organised terror network. For one, the targets were ordinary Muslims, not westerners. It was also a particularly insensitive attack, coming during Ramadan, the most holy of times for Muslims. Ramadan is known for its fast, but Muslims fast only during the day, and after sunset there is a happy time for families to eat and drink and socialise. The attackers struck at midnight to inflict maximum damage among the faithful. Or, obviously, the extremists in al-Qaeda does not see the residents in this particular complex as "faithful." They have a swimming pool, and women and men socialise among themselves, an atrocity in the eyes of these fanatics. Nevertheless, this horrible attack has come as a shock to many Saudis, and many who considered the terror the west's well deserved backlash for long-time humiliations (as they see it), may be woken up from their deep sleep. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that this has been a tactical blunder. Al-Qaeda relies on popular support to operate in Muslim countries, about being able to sway conservative Muslims to their extremist cause. As a 'heart and minds' operation, this will most likely backfire badly. With the previous Riyadh attack (against westerners) and this one, al-Qaeda may succeed in what the west has failed to do now: get even hardline Muslim governments to realise that Islamist terrorism is their problem, even more than it is ours. 5:47:10 AM    comment []  trackback []

Illegal immigrants sue Wal-Mart Nine illegal immigrants in the US, who had worked as janitors for Wal-Mart until they were arrested in federal raids last month, are now suing the retail chain over discrimination. Well, it's nice to see immigrants pick up the local customs of their new country so fast. 4:15:55 AM    comment []  trackback []

Attack on press in India A state assembly in India has sentenced five senior staff in one of India's leading newspapers, The Hindu, to short prison sentences. The decision has sparked outrage among journalists and opposition politicians alike. Speakers denounced the committee of the Tamil Nadu Assembly, or parliament, which on Friday sentenced The Hindu's editor, executive editor and three other senior staff to 15 days in jail. That committee objected to some descriptions of the state's chief minister, J Jayalalitha, contained in the paper last April, and invoked the right of legislative privilege to sentence the five to prison. India calls itself the world's largest democracy, but there should be no room in a democracy for giving the legislative branch the power to imprison people in the first place. Hopefully India's judiciary strikes down this blatant attack on press freedom. 3:04:26 AM    comment []  trackback []

British special forces disses intelligence quality British special forces commanders have issued sharp criticism of the quality of intelligence received during the Iraq war. At a confidential briefing attended by Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, and members of the House of Commons Defence Committee, special forces commanders said "inaccurate or inadequate" information received during the conflict had almost cost lives. In this specific case, the special forces were dropped far behind enemy lines, north-west of Baghdad, being told that local tribesmen would welcome them. However, Saddam had in the meantime bribed the leaders, and the special forces were met with heavily armed militants who mounted an ambush. No doubt due to the extreme capabilities of these operatives (most likely SAS), they escaped without injury and managed to get out of Iraq. The mission had to be abandoned. One MP said: "On the basis of what they told us you get the feeling that they would gladly sack the intelligence services. How we didn't get blokes wiped out I don't know." The low quality of intelligence in Iraq may well help explain a number of other misconceptions, for example the presence or wherabouts of Saddam's infamous WMD stock. This does not bode well for the larger war on terror, which is highly dependent on quality intelligence. After WWII, British intelligence on third world was generally good, but over the decades most of its resources were directed at the Soviet threat (and badly compromised, it must be added). It may take a long time to build up a solid intelligence on the regions where the fierest battles in the war on terror will be fought. 12:02:31 AM    comment []  trackback []

© Copyright 2003 Jan Haugland. Last update: 01.12.2003; 12:12:05.