In Iraq, this is the time to stand firm
The Abu Ghraib scandal has been a horrible PR disaster for the coalition's effort to bring democracy and human rights to Iraq. Enemies of democracy have, along with domestic opponents to the war, made serious attempts at tearing the west down from the moral high ground. Make no mistake about it: what happened in Saddam's old prison has undermined the will to fight this war to victory, both in Britain and the United States. Bush and Blair both realise that a prolonged conflict in Iraq can easily cost them their jobs in the next election. But this is much bigger than the two leaders.
Remember that the "they're botching it" meme is as old as the war. When the rapid advance towards Baghdad seemed to stop for a few days, and irregular fighters caused casualties, the media was a crescendo of voices telling how wrong the war plan has been. Even this blogger, emberrassingly in hindsight, started to wonder if Rumsfeld and the Pentagon had underestimated the task ahead. Not much more than a week later, victorous American troops captured Baghdad.
The meme, however, has been extremely hard to squash. Wars are always messy, mistakes are made, crimes are committed and tragic casualties happen. In a half full, half empty fashion, there has never been any doubt what version the media would choose.
Do you remember the plundering of the museum of Baghdad, the lack of electricity and water, and countless examples of unrest and problems. Every one of those problems, and the increasing death toll from regime remnants and an inrush of foreign militants were given as reasons for the war going badly. And Saddam was still at large, for a while anyway.
Just a few weeks ago, the combined troubles caused by unrest in Fallujah and Al-Sadr's uprising was described as a "perfect storm" that would totally throw the coalition effort into disarray. Fallujah is now relatively peaceful, and al-Sadr's militia is being systematically destroyed.
And now, the horrible prison photographs, confirming that among coalition troops there are men and women that do not deserve to wear their country's uniform..
The conclusion has remained the same. The reasons have changed, week by week. I am thinking back to the almost unanimous conclusion from pundits at the end of March 2003, concluding that the coalition forces' progress had ended.
I am not saying the war is going well. I honestly don't know. The fog of war is preventing those who are not on the ground in Iraq (and probably them, too) from reliably assessing how the war is going. But we have won some great victories, which is important to remember when we feel the war is futile and hopeless. Saddam Hussein's horrible dictature is brought to an end. And the firm stand on Iraq has had dramatic side effects in the rest of the world.
The last point is the easiest to deal with: the liberation of Iraq has been very far from futile. Since the fall of Saddam, Libya has agreed to disarm its weapons of mass destruction. Iran has admitted the International Atomic Energy Authority to survey its nuclear installations. As a by-product of this, UN inspectors in Tripoli and Tehran helped to uncover the trade in nuclear technology overseen by the Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. If one of the most significant objectives of the Iraqi conflict was pour encourager les autres, then it has been a resounding success.
However, if the coalition cuts and runs now, hardly anyone will remember these extremely important victories.
There is no other outcome than a stable, democratic Iraq that is acceptable. Cutting and running will be a total disaster. Even those who argue the war in Iraq was a mistake cannot reasonably deny that it is now a crucial battle in the global war on terror. In this, if nothing else, al-Qaeda and George Bush totally agree. A withdrawal will leave al-Qaeda with a massive victory, and those who oppose the war cannot look away and said "you destroyed it, you repair it."
Either Iraq will be a hard-won victory in the war on terror, bringing democracy into the heartland of the Muslim Middle East, or we are all in a much more dangerous position.
4:17:20 AM
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