Ralph Peters writes a very interesting opinion about the Iranian seizure of British servicemen, outlining more or less the same issues I have been mentioning in this blog. He elaborates a bit on how this gamble shows a split in the Iranian leadership.
It's a repertoire play, an attempt by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps — now a sprawling empire of repression — to recreate its greatest success on the world stage, the seizure of American embassy personnel a quarter-century ago. [...]
It's unlikely that Iran's government leaders or the formal policy apparatus in Tehran knew about the plan to take British hostages — they wouldn't have believed it was worth the risk. The hardliners presented Iran's more rational elements with a fait accompli — now backing down will be portrayed as a betrayal of the country's sovereignty and pride.
If the situation is swiftly resolved, it will mean that more-moderate voices won in Tehran.
Just so. We don't know yet, but the noises are a little bit encouraging, if we want to look at the bright side.
Still, I think it is more significant that Iran chose to provoke the coalition at this time. The outcome is still not entirely clear, even if the men are released tomorrow.
Update: Oh, we should not be surprised that the mullahcracy came up with a few sick ideas in the endgame. The handover has been 'postponed' until tomorrow at least, and in the meantime the servicemen have been paraded around with blindfolds and forced to read apologies on Iranian TV, being publicly humiliated. The British diplomats' attempts to talk to the Iranians has been frustrated.
Obviously Iran is using the opportunity to humiliate Britian and the coalition to play to domestic audiences and the wider Middle East.
As soon as the men are back safe, it will be necessary for Britain to retaliate in a very creative way to undo the damage from this shameful behaviour.
Remember the talk about Saudi reforms and promised local elections for this year? Saudi blogger Alhamedi argues the promised local elections in Saudi Arabia has been cancelled. The reforms, he thinks, has been secretly cancelled before they even started.
Leftist paper The Guardian is again smearing eco-skeptic Bjørn Lomborg, using the Danish government panel that accused him of dishonesty as ammunition. What the newspaper fails to mention, in typical dishonest fashion, is that Lomborg was later totally vindicated by the Danish Ministry of Science, which harshly criticised the Lomborg-bashing report as being emotional and lacking evidence and argumentation. The Daily Ablution has the story.
Environmental doom and gloom is an article of faith on the left.
Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi says that the six Marines and two sailors from the UK that weire seized on Monday will be released today.
"It became clear for us that the detained British military men had no ill-intention and they will be released on Wednesday," state television quoted Kharrazi as saying on Wednesday.
Britain, whose diplomatic ties with Iran have soured over criticism of Tehran's slow pace of cooperation with nuclear inspections, confirmed the planned release.
"The Iranian authorities have now confirmed to us that they are going to release them later today and we remain in discussions with the Iranians through our embassy in Tehran," Prime Minister Tony Blair's official spokesman told reporters.
It is still not confirmed that they have been released.
Some observers say that the contradictory messages from Iran - yesterday hardliners threatened to prosecute the men - shows how deeply divided the Iranian power structures are.
Mark Steyn has a few words for those of us who are pessimistic about democracy ever taking root in the Middle East. Remember, a couple of decades ago, everybody would consider Latin America a similar basket case of never ending military coups and dictatures.
Before Reagan, Democrats considerd it inevitable that communists would roll over the 3rd world, and Republicans thought the best idea was to prop up "our local thug", a right-wing dictator, to prevent that from happening. Nobody really considered real democracies south of Rio Grande. Today, that area is overwhelmingly democratic.
Fundamantalists are out hunting for dinosaur fossils in South Dakota, where they are not hard to find. In the alternative universe of young earth creationism, dinosaurs went extinct sometime after Noah's flood, just a few thousand years ago.
Lecturing to a rapt audience of 20 like-minded Christians after a hard day in the field, Russ McGlenn, a self-styled amateur archaeologist and palaeontologist and head of Adventure Safaris, said: "Heavenly Father, we thank You for the evidence of a catastrophic flood event. We thank You for the time to study Your creation. Heavenly Father, we thank You for the evidence of a catastrophic flood event."
If you wonder what kind of nutcases wander around looking for dinosaur bones to prove they drowned in the flood:
Evolution is "the dumbest and most dangerous idea in the history of humanity", said Kent Hovind, a vocal enthusiast for the cause who also runs the theme park in Florida. Explaining his Creationist creed, he said: "We think dinosaurs were part of the normal Creation and were just big lizards. Noah took some of them on the Ark, probably babies, when the floods came."
