Polls confusion
Gallup has the numbers, or at least some numbers, showing this goes beyond a Bush landslide. It's a 13 - thirteen- percentage point electoral massacre.
In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters.
However, if you don't like these poll numbers, there are others. Pew Research Center, in an overlapping period, finds a near-tie.
The latest national survey of 1,972 registered voters by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted in two waves over a seven-day period, finds that the president's large margin of support in the initial period (Sept. 8-10) dissipated in the polling conducted Sept. 11-14. Among all registered voters Bush initially led Kerry by 52%-40%. However, the second wave of interviewing shows the race even among registered voters, at 46%-46%. When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% in the second wave, down from a huge 54%-38% advantage he held in the first wave of interviews.
The incredibly popular RasmussenReports tracking poll for yesterday has Bush at 49.3% and Kerry at 44.7%. In this poll, conducted every day, Kerry has not been ahead since August 23.
If you prefer John Kerry to win, there is actually an odd poll result showing Kerry ahead, too. Harris (no direct link) has Kerry at 48% and Bush at 47% in a three-way race.
It's hard to believe all these people are using the same methods.
You can follow the confusing poll story on RealClearPolitics, which shows it is rather muddy. The weight of different polling, however, shows a rather solid Bush lead. But there is a long way to go.
PS: Through googling for the Harris poll I found a recent summary of some of the above in The Washington Dispatch.
5:45:16 PM 
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