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10. februar 2005
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When there is talk about peace and optimism in the Arab-Israeli conflict, it is time to run for cover. The naive Oslo peace ended up in the Oslo war, the so-called intifada, but the new regime in the Palestinian Authority gives some ground for optimism. Troubling as it is that Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas), the recently elected President of the PA, is a holocaust denier, as a Fatah leader he has been quite consistent in rejecting war as the road to a Palestinian state. Even at times when it was less popular to do so, he condemned the second intifada and terrorist attacks.
 If we accept that Abu Mazen is honest in his intention to put an end to the terrorist attacks on Israel, the question remains whether it is within his ability to do so. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have already delivered their response to the ceasefire agreement reached (informally) between Ariel Sharon and Abu Mazen at Sharm al-Sheikh, by firing a barrage of mortars and Kassam missiles against Israel, luckily not resulting in casualties.
Abu Mazen has responded by firing his top security officials in Gaza as a "punitive" reaction to their failure to prevent the attacks. This, if we interpret the facts charitably, signals that he is somewhat serious about cracking down. The terrorists, on their side, have stormed a Gaza prison to free their comrades, obviously telling they are not backing down.
However, Abu Mazen has so far ruled out forcibly disarming the extremist groups, fearing that could lead to a civil war in the Palestinian areas. The strong showing of Hamas candidates in recent local elections demonstrated the tragic fact that the terrorists have popular support on the street level.
The Middle East's top troublemaker Iran is violently opposed to any peace deal, and its de facto ocuppying force in southern Lebanon, the Hizbollah, is a dangerous force that may well lend strength to Hamas and Islamic Jihad if it comes to a violent showdown with the Palestinian Authority. A recent report said the PA fears that Hizbollah is targetting Abu Mazen for assassination. PA officials are now engaging in serious diplomacy in Beirut and Damascus to seek Syria's aid in preventing Hizbollah from derailing the peace process. You know that when you ask Syria to help against terrorists, you are grasping at straws.
There are many powerful players that have much to lose if the the Arab-Israeli conflict goes into a more constructive phase. This ranges all the way from terrorist thugs on the streets of Gaza who make a living from mob activities, all the way up to the Mullahs in Iran, and there are a heck of a lot of other dangerous people in between. This is a grave threat to the newly started peace process, even if we make the optimistic assumption that Abu Mazen and his government are serious about peace.
Condoleezza Rice is certainly right that this is the best chance for peace in many years. That, however, is not saying very much.
9:54:25 PM 
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A British film watchdog has rejected demands that scenes depicting smoking should be censored from movies.
The British Board of Film Classification yesterday rejected calls from health groups to cut film scenes showing actors smoking. The board said such drastic action smacked of "the nanny state" and there was little public demand for the change.
However, in a slight shift in its position, the board said in new guidelines issued yesterday that films "which promote or glamorise smoking, alcohol abuse or substance misuse, may also be a concern, particularly at the junior categories (in the U, PG and 12A film classifications)".
It is almost astonishing that anti-smoking groups made the demands in the first place. We don't censor scenes of murder and violence, and yet the nannies want to prohibit movies from showing smoking on the screen. This is the mentality that will cut away civil liberties bit by bit. Fascism by good intentions, if you will.
4:03:57 PM
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North Korea has for the first time publicly announced it has nuclear weapons:
"We ... have manufactured nukes for self-defense to cope with the Bush administration's ever more undisguised policy to isolate and stifle the (North)," the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
Also, NK is suspending talks indefinately:
"We have wanted the six-party talks but we are compelled to suspend our participation in the talks for an indefinite period till we have recognized that there is justification for us to attend the talks," the North said.
Another temper tantrum.
Hopefully the rumours about the regime disintergrating are true.
10:03:16 AM
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Be careful what you ask for, writes Arthur Chrenkoff about those who desire a reformation of Islam. Consider the protestant reformation in Europe, which took centuries to end up in liberal societies.
In the short term, the reformation created extremist states like Jean Calvin's Geneva and a century and a half of brutal secterian wars that tore Europe apart. Thus, a reform of Islam may well be interpreted as what Osama Bin Laden tries to bring about. We certainly don't have time for the history to repeat itself in the Islamic world.
What Islam really needs to in order to modernize is an Enlightenment, which would bring the separation of the church and state, democratization, liberalization and the acceptance of principles and practices of tolerance, openness, innovation and progress. Yes, in many ways the Enlightenment was a child of the Reformation, but the Western world had to go through two centuries of conflict and upheaval to get there. Today, we don't have that much time to wait until the Muslim world truly embraces modernity. We can only hope that just as everything in our world today seems to move faster, so will the political, social and religious trends.
Speaking of which, the Saudi local elections are today. A baby step towards democracy, surely, but at least in the right direction.
9:48:24 AM
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© Copyright 2005 Jan Haugland.
Last update: 01.03.2005; 01:30:06.
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