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15. juni 2005
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Europe has been repeatedly declared, if not dead, at least dying, and Robert J. Samuelson outlines the case for European misery.
It's hard to be a great power if your population is shriveling. Europe's birthrates have dropped well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children for each woman of childbearing age. For Western Europe as a whole, the rate is 1.5. It's 1.4 in Germany and 1.3 in Italy. In a century -- if these rates continue -- there won't be many Germans in Germany or Italians in Italy. Even assuming some increase in birthrates and continued immigration, Western Europe's population grows dramatically grayer, projects the U.S. Census Bureau. Now about one-sixth of the population is 65 and older. By 2030 that would be one-fourth, and by 2050 almost one-third.
No one knows how well modern economies will perform with so many elderly people, heavily dependent on government benefits (read: higher taxes). But Europe's economy is already faltering. In the 1970s annual growth for the 12 countries now using the euro averaged almost 3 percent; from 2001 to 2004 the annual average was 1.2 percent. In 1974 those countries had unemployment of 2.4 percent; in 2004 the rate was 8.9 percent.
Wherever they look, Western Europeans feel their way of life threatened. One solution to low birthrates is higher immigration. But many Europeans don't like the immigrants they have -- often Muslim from North Africa -- and don't want more. One way to revive economic growth would be to reduce social benefits, taxes and regulations. But that would imperil Europe's "social model," which supposedly blends capitalism's efficiency and socialism's compassion.
Obviously, the trend is bad, and in Europe too little attention is paid to this problem. However, I can't help thinking many Americans overstate it. First, the article chose Germany and Italy, the worst affected. Many European countries have quite healthy birth rates. Second, how helpful would it have been if somebody made a projection for Europe 100 or 50 years ago, and thus tried to say how 2005 would look like? Obviously, all predictions would have missed badly. Demographic trends are just that, and demographic realities can change in a few years of increased fertility.
It is also worth noting that European countries are not alike. Play around with the birth rate statistic here (or for OECD), and you'll see there is a huge difference between Ireland, which has a higher birth rate than the US, and countries like Germany and Italy which are in the very bottom. Norway is just slightly below the replacement rate, as is France, and as I said above, not much positive change is needed to avert long-term trouble.
Like the population explosion scare proved to be something of a dud, except in some very poor countries, I think we'll find out that the population implosion scare will be far less critical than this article indicates. That said, European leaders should be taking this question far more seriously than they do.
One negative effect of an aging population is that an increasing share of the voters will be pensioners. The economy may require cuts in benefits to be sustainable, but the voters, depending on their pensions, will oppose such cuts. Thus, as the economic crisis gets more urgent, the political possibility of actually taking the necessary steps to correct it gets worse. The correct time to do something, both about the declining birth rate, and the bloating public sector, is certainly now. It is worth noting that countries with good economy (Norway, Ireland, Iceland) tend to have a far better birth rate. At least in the case of Ireland, I think cultural issues are the most important factor, but I don't doubt that Norway's good economy and generous child benefits is part of the story for my country. If people are pessimistic about the future, they are less likely to bring children into it, making the long-term situation worse. Thus, fixing old Europe's ailing economies is an important step in turning around bad demographical trends.
10:19:16 PM 
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Terri Schiavo's autopsy report has been made public today, and demonstrates that the findings of facts in the prolonged legal court case was substantially correct. She was permanently brain damaged; in fact the size of her brain, 615 grams, was half that of a normal adult woman.
The damage to it "was irrecoverable, and no amount of treatment or rehabilitation would have reversed" it, said pathologist Jon R. Thogmartin, who is the chief medical examiner for Florida's sixth judicial district.
The damage was especially severe in the region responsible for vision, making her functionally blind, he added.
The autopsy either ruled out or greatly diminished the likelihood that Schiavo lapsed into a coma 15 years ago as a result of strangulation, beatings, drug overdose, eating disorder or a rare molecular heart defect. All had been mentioned since she collapsed at age 26.
Asked at press conference today whether there was any evidence of neglect or abuse of Schiavo, Thogmartin answered firmly: "No."
Asked whether the underlying cause of her death will ever be known, he said: "I don't know."
The theories most commonly advanced by the lunatic fringe, abuse or even strangulation, are thus put solidly to rest. Her parents, who thought she was responding to stimuli, or could even see, were imagining things, though it would be heartless to fault them for looking for such signs and "seeing" it in the semi-random movements of the poor woman.
Naturally, not all of the ethical concerns raised by those who wanted her to stay alive indefinitely are answered by this report. No scientific facts can answer what is ultimately a moral question. But many of the assertions made by many on the far right have today been proven false.
Interestingly, considering that the report also seems to prove most theories about why Terri collapsed in 1990 questionable and even false, it also appears that Michael Schiavo's old malpractice suit had little merit. The hospital settled, so that is a moot point anyway.
PS: More details in this AP piece in the NYT.
9:01:24 PM
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Still looking young, not to mention slightly dated, the videogame hero Pac-Man turns 25 this month.
It all began in Japan, when Toru Iwatani, a young designer at Namco, caught inspiration from a pizza that was missing a slice. Puck-Man, as it was originally called, was born. Because of obvious similarities to a certain four-letter profanity, "Puck" became "Pac" when it debuted in the U.S. in 1980.
Since it's essentially a game about tactical eating while avoiding ghosts, I guess we should blame the "obesity epidemic" on PacMan.
Anyway, happy birthday. You don't look a day over 20.
5:43:50 PM
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 Douglas Wood, who has been held hostage in Iraq for more than six weeks, has been freed in a military operation.
Australian hostage Douglas Wood has been rescued in a military operation in Iraq, Prime Minister John Howard says.
"I am delighted to inform the House that the Australian hostage in Iraq, Mr Douglas Wood, is safe," Mr Howard told Parliament.
"Mr Wood was recovered a short while ago in Baghdad in a military operation that I am told was conducted by Iraqi forces in cooperation in a general way with force elements of the United States."
Aussie blogger Tim Blair is of course delighted, but also notes some news sources insisted he was "released" by the captors.
Update: A very happy Douglas Wood has released a statement:
At a news conference, an Australian official read a statement from Wood, who said: "I'm extremely happy and relieved to be free again and deeply grateful to all those who worked to bring about my release.
"It's a positive sign for the future of Iraq that Iraq soldiers played such a key role in my release."
It is!
Indeed, the soldiers in this case were not acting on specific intelligence or even looking for the hostage.
Soldiers from the Iraqi army were conducting a pre-planned search in the al-Adel neighborhood of northwestern Baghdad on Wednesday morning when they came upon the two men.
The soldiers, from the 2nd Battalion 1st Brigade of the Iraqi army, had not been acting with specific intelligence on his whereabouts, the official told CNN.
In the course of the operation, they met light resistance and as a result three people were detained. Their nationalities are not known.
Gen. Naseer al-Abadi, Iraq's deputy chief of staff, said Wood was found under a "blanket" and that the insurgents had tried to tell troops he was their sick father, according to The Associated Press.
The operation took place during a U.S. and Iraqi crackdown in Baghdad against insurgents.
The Iraqis handed Wood over to the Americans to be brought to an American military medical facility, where he was examined and pronounced in good health.
He's now with the Australian Emergency Response Team in Baghdad, where I trust he's very safe.
3:35:38 PM
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Reuters follows up on the latest Cotecna memo, and has received a response from Kofi Annan's office. Sort of.
Chief U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard said Annan had no recollection of any such meeting during the trip to Paris, for a summit of French-speaking world leaders.
No surprises there.
2:50:54 AM
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Lebanon has been kept off the US State Department's list of states that sponsor terrorism, due to the fact that the country has been occupied by Syria (which is on that list). But now Lebanon no longer has that excuse, Larry C Johnson observes, and it hosts (and is partially run by) Hezbollah. Even worse, the new leaders appear to be making things worse.
So what are our new pals in Lebanon doing? Setting terrorists free!! As my friend Pat Lang observed, "Nobody is saying anything about the dozen or so Jihadi activists who Saad Hariri bought out of jail last week. He paid their fines, bail, etc because he needed the political support of the families and other tribal associates. I guess he has been trying to "line up" both the Shia zealots (Hizb Allah and the Sunni ones as well)."
Johnson also offers an article written by T. E. Lawrence in 1920 about the British colonial mess in the Middle East. Change around a few names and places, and something similar could have been written today.
12:19:17 AM
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Iceman, the 5,000 year old mummy found frozen in the Alps may have been contaminated by bacteria since the discovery.
X-rays have shown bubbles in the bones that could be caused by bacteria, said Eduard Egarter Vigl, in charge of preserving the mummy at the South Tyrol Archaeological Museum in Bolzano, Italy.
The museum is trying to find local companies that can analyze the air in the sealed-off chamber where the mummy is kept to test for the presence of bacteria, Egarter Vigl said in a telephone interview.
He denied media reports that the bacteria could cause the disintegration of the Iceman, also known as Oetzi. But if bacteria are present, disinfection will be necessary to prevent possible damage to the man's remains, he said.
Well, luckily he's already dead.
12:02:35 AM
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© Copyright 2005 Jan Haugland.
Last update: 01.07.2005; 11:18:26.
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