John at Powerline has an excellent analysis of the intercepted letter from al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden's partner, to Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
While the letter reveals al-Qaeda's grand strategic goals, Zawahiri is obviously worried that the extreme brutality of Zarqawi's jihad in Iraq is causing a backlash among sympathisers, and also risks drawing hostile action from Iran.
Among the things which the feelings of the Muslim populace who love and support you will never find palatable -also- are the scenes of slaughtering the hostages. You shouldn't be deceived by the praise of some of the zealous young men and their description of you as the shaykh of the slaughterers, etc. They do not express the general view of the admirer and the supporter of the resistance in Iraq, and of you in particular by the favor and blessing of God.
Zawahiri is acutely aware of the public relations aspect of jihad. I don't find it surprising that the Times chose not to emphasize this quote:
However, despite all of this, I say to you: that we are in a battle, and that more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media .... And we can kill the captives by bullet. That would achieve that which is sought after without exposing ourselves to the questions and answering to doubts. We don't need this.
Also, the letter is outlining the Afghan-Pakistani al-Qaeda's troubles, though not in explicit terms. I'd say that Zawahiri begging al-Zarqawi, who is in the middle of a costly war, for a contribution of $100,000 (I assume the amount is in US dollars), speaks volumes.
And then there is the question of Iran.
And do the brothers forget that we have more than one hundred prisoners - many of whom are from the leadership who are wanted in their countries - in the custody of the Iranians? And even if we attack the Shia out of necessity, then why do you announce this matter and make it public, which compels the Iranians to take counter measures?
The relationship between Iran and al-Qaeda is one of "the enemy of my enemy" but sooner or later the Iranian leadership may start worrying who is their worst enemy.
PS: It is interesting that western media tries to spin the letter into a bad Vietnam omen, considering that on balance, it is such a strong sign of al-Qaeda desperation it could just as well be faked.
Update: Very insightful analysis of the Zawahiri letter by Bill Roggio.
11:19:12 PM
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