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17. juli 2006
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Gene at Harry's Place points out that the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon renders the excuses Hebollah had for attacking Israel moot.
I remeber Operation Accountability in 1993 and Operation Grapes of Wrath in 1996-- both efforts by Israel to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets at northern Israel and to weaken or destroy it as a threat. In both cases, Israel succeeded temporarily in the first objective but not in the second. Hastily-arranged ceasefires stopped both operations before they could do much damage to Hezbollah's leadership or military capacities.
At the time Hezbollah and its apologists could claim-- with some justification-- that the root cause of the fighting was Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, a misbegotten effort to create a buffer against attacks after the 1982 war. All Israel needed to do, some commentators assured us, was to withdraw from Lebanese territory and the military arm of Hizbollah would lose its reason for existence.
Israel did withdraw in 2000. But Hezbollah used the subsequent years of relative calm on the border to reinforce its presence along the Israeli border and to obtain thousands of longer-range and more dangerous missiles from Iran and Syria.
I understand those who argue the policy of land for peace is a failure. Howver, the situation is much clearer with Israel withdrawn behind its borders. Hamas et al use Gaza as a base for thousands of potentially deadly, but so far fortunately inept, rocket attacks on Israel. Hezbollah has been armed by Syria and Iran for massive, deadly missile and rocket attacks on northern Israel. On balance, I agree with Gene that the withdrawals have improved Israel's strategic and political position, at least in the eyes of sane observers. It doesn't prevent spineless Europeans from condemning Israel's acts of self-defence. Europe is therefore in no position whatsoever to have any influence on Israel; everything from the usual suspects will be ignored by the Israeli government.
Another matter is Olmert's weak political position. Were he perceived to be a stronger leader, he could be in a position to make it clear that Israel has no quarrel with Lebanon, and in fact wants to free its southern regions from Syrian-Iranian occupation by proxy. When Israeli attacks kills Lebanese civilians and destroy infrastructure far from Hezbollah strongholds, I fear this is a tragic mistake. That said, the overwhelming responsibilities for the carnage must be placed where it belongs: with Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran.
PS: These missiles that are currently raining down on Israel were declared a "myth" by Robert Fisk in 2003.
Take the article in The New York Times by Larry Collins – joint author with Dominique Lapierre of O Jerusalem! – which last month announced that the Syrian-supported Hizbollah resistance in Lebanon had 10,000 missiles that could fly to Tel Aviv and "leave in their wake devastation more terrible than anything Israel has ever known". The missiles are a myth – I travel the roads of southern Lebanon every two weeks and there are no such missiles, as the UN force there will confirm – but this doesn't matter.
I suspect the press will now stop taking Fisk seriously as a Middle East expert. Yeah right.
10:07:56 PM 
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The western world is facing declining birth rates, but don't blame Angela Magdaleno.
After delivering triplets three years ago, Angela Magdaleno thought she was done having babies. She was wrong four times over. Magdaleno gave birth to quadruplets on July 6 by Caesarean section. She now has 10 children.
She had triplets after fertility treatment, but the quadruplets were conceived without any articifial help, the odds being only 1 in 800,000 for such a conception.
The children, mother and father Afredo Anzaldo are all fine, but worrying a bit about how to get this family to fit in their one-bedroom apartment in east Los Angeles.
7:17:43 PM
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A tsunami has hit Java in Indonesia:
A powerful earthquake sent a 6-foot-high tsunami crashing into a beach resort on Indonesia's Java island Monday, killing at least five people and causing extensive damage to hotels, restaurants and homes, the president and witnesses said.
People ran up a hill to escape the wave on Pangandaran beach in west Java, a woman who identified herself only as Teti told el-Shinta radio station.
"All the houses are destroyed along the beach," she said. "Small hotels are completely destroyed and at least one restaurant was washed away."
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono told reporters that at least five people were killed.
Based on reports of widespread destruction, the casualty figures may well increase. The earthquake prompted a tsunami warning to be sent to islands and coastlines in the Indian ocean, but this tsunami is unlikely to cause widespread damage across the ocean.
This earthquake is given a preliminary magnitude of 7.2 on the richter scale.
Update: Officials say 37 people are reported killed.
Update 2: The tsunami killed at least 86 people.
3:18:48 PM
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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who may have been hurt in an earlier attack, gives some clues that he's out on his depth:
In a recorded television speech on Sunday evening, Hizbullah head Hassan Nasrallah urged Arab states to come to the organization's aid.
"Where are the Arab nations?" he asked, moments after declaring that Hizbullah wouldn't ask for help from anyone.
He also "said the organization "won't hurt civilians unless you force us to," but declared it could "hit every town in northern Palestine.""
This offensive is not very much in Hezbollah's long-term interest. It may well be in Iran's interest, however.
1:48:46 AM
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© Copyright 2006 Jan Haugland.
Last update: 01.08.2006; 17:37:33.
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