 One thing I've noticed since I started blogging, is that the Christmas season is not a silent time on the news front. It appears to be the perfect time for people to start wars and nature to cause disasters. Hopefully we'll avoid the latter this year, but the former has certainly happened in Somalia, where Ethiopia has launched an all-out war against the ruling Islamist militia.
Ethiopian fighter jets have bombed Mogadishu international airport in Somalia, airport officials have said.
It was not clear how many times the airport was struck but at least one person was reported injured.
Mogadishu is held by an Islamist militia, which has been fighting the Ethiopia-backed interim government.
Ethiopia's prime minister has said his country is "at war" with the Islamists, and the Red Cross has urged all parties to protect civilians from harm.
Somalia being reunited by the Islamic Courts militia, with its close ideological similarity to the Taliban and probable links to al-Qaeda, was one of the worst things that could happen. Ethiopia certainly don't want such a powder keg on its doorsteps. Unfortunately, Ethiopia is also a country with very little credibility in this question, considering its long and ruthless war with Eritrea, a fight where it's difficult to pick any good guys. Those tempted to always side against the Muslim party, should do well to remember the former Yugoslavia.
With Ethiopia long denying any involvement in Somalia, and now admitting sending heavy troops and launching airstrikes, nobody should be convinced that this is merely an attack on Islamist extremists. Eritrea has supported the Islamic courts, and there is every reason to believe it will escalate this support now that Ethiopia has launched an all-out war. What we will see is a proxy war between these long-time foes on Somalian soil, which may well draw in many countries in the region.
But anyone counting out Somalia's islamist militants will, I fear, be in for a rude awakening. The islamists have long experience in fighting ruthless battles with no regard for civilian lives, they are well supported and armed, and I would not be surprised if Ethiopia is biting over far more than it can chew.
It is, however, easy to pick the loser of this war: ordinary Somalians who have already suffered for decades under extremists, despots and anarchy, and are badly affected by a serious famine caused by flooding.
Update: Douglas Farah posted, before the latest escalation, that this war was started by design from Islamic extremists to open a third front against the infidels.
The conflict is designed not only to establish a space that can be defined as the beginning of the Islamist Caliphate, a necessary physical space from which to launch succeeding holy wars against the unbelievers. It is also aimed at creating widespread instability in a fragile region in East Africa, rich in mineral resources with weak and corrupt central governments.
Osama bin Laden has spoken in the past of the need to open a “third front” with a ground war that will bleed the U.S. military dry. He has argued that the al Qaeda front in Iraq, coupled with the front in Afghanistan/Pakistan, has stretched the U.S. military to its limits. A third front would make triumph in the other two more likely.
It's difficult to see how an African war will bleed US resources, as the west will certainly not get directly involved. It is conceivable that the opposite may happen: a Somalian war will draw islamist resources away from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Which is most dangerous: a failed state that provides a safe haven for terrorists, or a devastating regional war?
10:29:52 AM 
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