11. mars 2007

Is the Iraqi surge working? Robert Kagan: A front-page story in The Post last week suggested that the Bush administration has no backup plan in case the surge in Iraq doesn't work. I wonder if The Post and other newspapers have a backup plan in case it does. Kagan sees some early signs that the new tactics, as well as the increased troop levels, are working. Before the arrival of Gen. David Petraeus, the Army's leading counterinsurgency strategist, U.S. forces tended to raid insurgent and terrorist strongholds and then pull back and hand over the areas to Iraqi forces, who failed to hold them. The Fadhils report, "One difference between this and earlier -- failed -- attempts to secure Baghdad is the willingness of the Iraqi and U.S. governments to commit enough resources for enough time to make it work." In the past, bursts of American activity were followed by withdrawal and a return of the insurgents. Now, the plan to secure Baghdad "is becoming stricter and gaining momentum by the day as more troops pour into the city, allowing for a better implementation of the 'clear and hold' strategy." Baghdadis "always want the 'hold' part to materialize, and feel safe when they go out and find the Army and police maintaining their posts -- the bad guys can't intimidate as long as the troops are staying." A greater sense of confidence produces many benefits. The number of security tips about insurgents that Iraqi civilians provide has jumped sharply. Stores and marketplaces are reopening in Baghdad, increasing the sense of community. People dislocated by sectarian violence are returning to their homes. As a result, "many Baghdadis feel hopeful again about the future, and the fear of civil war is slowly being replaced by optimism that peace might one day return to this city," the Fadhils report. "This change in mood is something huge by itself." There is, unfortunately, enough historical precedence that optimism in Iraq, or anywhere else in the Middle East for that matter, proves short-lived. Those who live, will learn. 5:41:30 PM    comment []  trackback []

British Tories consider serious tax hikes on air travel Tony Blair created New Labour by moving to the center. Is British Tory leader David Cameron trying to create the New Tories by moving to the far left? Harsh new taxes on air travel, including a strict personal flight "allowance", will be unveiled by the Conservatives tomorrow as part of a plan that would penalise business travellers, holidaymakers and the tourist industry. The proposals, to be disclosed by George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, include levying VAT or fuel duty on domestic flights for the first time as part of a radical plan to tackle global warming. The Conservatives will also suggest - most controversially of all - rationing individuals to as little as a single short-haul flight each year; any further journeys would attract progressively higher taxes, a leaked document entitled Greener Skies suggests. The possibility to use the climate scare as an excuse to slam high taxes on people have politicians and bureaucrats all over Europe salivating. Anyone thought about how many people, especially in poorer countries, who make their living off tourism, and what consequences high travel taxes will have for them? The Tories are even inviting Al Gore over to advise them on how to tax the travel industry to death. I don't think he'll row over the Atlantic. 1:17:07 PM    comment []  trackback []

© Copyright 2007 Jan Haugland. Last update: 01.04.2007; 03:25:38.